What lies ahead in Iraq: the hard task of forming a government

Supporters of Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani cheer in Tahrir Square, Baghdad, Iraq. (AP)
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Updated 13 November 2025
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What lies ahead in Iraq: the hard task of forming a government

  • With no single bloc dominating the next parliament, key parties could spend weeks or even months negotiating alliances to build the largest bloc and nominate the next premier

BAGHDAD: Following Iraq’s parliamentary election this week, the complex and often lengthy task of choosing the country’s next leader is set to begin.
Incumbent Prime Minister Mohammed Shia Al-Sudani claimed victory for his coalition after preliminary results showed it was the largest bloc — though it still falls short of the majority needed to form a government.
Sudani now faces the tough quest of securing support from other parties, mostly from the Shiite majority, in his bid for a second term.
With no single bloc dominating the next parliament, key parties could spend weeks or even months negotiating alliances to build the largest bloc and nominate the next premier.
Sudani was brought to power in 2022 by the Coordination Framework, an alliance of Shiite factions with varying links to Iran.
While preliminary vote counts for each list by province were released, seat allocations in parliament will not be announced until later.
By convention in Iraq, a Shiite Muslim holds the post of prime minister and a Sunni that of parliament speaker, while the largely ceremonial presidency goes to a Kurd.

- How is the government formed? -

Naming a premier and forming a government has often proven to be an arduous task involving protracted political wrangling.
In previous parliaments, Shiite majority parties have struck compromises to work together and form a government, and the main contenders often find themselves sidelined.
Seats are used as bargaining chips, and newly-elected lawmakers can switch sides.
With an outright majority almost impossible to achieve by any single list — as was the case in this week’s vote — the next premier will be selected by whichever coalition can gather enough allies to become the biggest bloc.
Since voting began two years after the 2003 US-led invasion that toppled Saddam Hussein, only one premier, Nuri Al-Maliki, has served for two terms (2006-2014).

- What are the possible outcomes? -

Currently, no serious candidates have emerged except for Sudani — though he himself was a relative unknown prior to his nomination.
A senior politician told AFP last month that the Coordination Framework is divided over supporting Sudani, with Al-Maliki seemingly poised to oppose a second term for the incumbent.
Long-term powerbrokers, including from the Coordination Framework, worry that Sudani has amassed too much power during his first term, making some reluctant to allow him to keep his seat.
Sudani has also faced allegations that members of his office were responsible for wiretapping the phones of politicians.
A source within a main party in the Coordination Framework told AFP that the alliance had previously agreed to reunite and create the largest bloc.
“They will name the next premier and participate in choosing the parliament speaker, his deputies and the president,” the source said.

- What happened after previous votes? -

In the 2010 election, former premier Iyad Allawi’s bloc won most seats, 91, closely followed by Maliki’s alliance, which won 89.
After months of bickering, political leaders stuck a deal and Al-Maliki was reappointed for another term despite coming second in the ballot.
In 2021, influential Shiite cleric Moqtada Sadr’s bloc emerged as the biggest winner, with 73 seats, but still fell far short of a majority.
His bloc withdrew from parliament following a dispute with other Shiite parties that culminated in deadly fighting in Baghdad.
In the aftermath, influential parties instead came together under the Coordination Framework to form a larger bloc, and brought Sudani to power.

- What role do Tehran and Washington play? -

For decades, Iraq has been a proxy battleground between the US and Iran, and forming a government has always been influenced by the two foes.
The next premier will have to maintain the delicate balance between their interests.
Since the US-led invasion, Iran has not only wielded significant influence in Iraqi politics, but also backs armed groups in the country, whose power has grown both politically and financially.
As Iran’s regional influence wanes, it aims to preserve its power in Iraq and keep the market open to products from its crippled economy.
Washington meanwhile wants to cripple Tehran’s influence, pressuring Baghdad to disarm Iran-backed factions, many of which have been designated as terrorist groups.
Some of those groups will nonetheless have seats in the parliament and maybe the government.
Last week, Foreign Minister Fuad Hussein told the Saudi-funded Al-Hadath channel that six pro-Iran factions are on a US blacklist — a key factor the government must consider.


As tensions flare on Israel-Lebanon border, war-torn communities struggle to rebuild

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As tensions flare on Israel-Lebanon border, war-torn communities struggle to rebuild

  • The Lebanon strikes have killed at least 127 civilians, including children, since the ceasefire took hold, according to a November UN report
  • The Israeli strikes into southern Lebanon continue, with several a week

METULA, Israel: Ilan Rosenfeld walks through the burnt-out shell of his former business, stepping over crackling pieces of clay plates that used to line his cafe and past metal scraps of Hezbollah rockets littering the rubble.
It’s all that’s left for him in this small, war-ravaged town — the northernmost in Israel, surrounded on three sides by Lebanon.
“Everything I had, everything I saved, everything I built – it’s all burned,” he said as he scanned the damage of the business he’d run for 40 years in Metula, which has long been at the crosshairs of flare-ups along the volatile border. “Every day I wake up, and all I have left are tears.”
Rosenfeld was among tens of thousands of people forced from their homes when war broke out between Israel and the militant group Hezbollah in October 2023, following Hamas’ attack in southern Israel.
One year into a shaky ceasefire on this heavily fortified border, Israel’s government says most of those displaced have returned to their homes in the north, where they struggle to pick up the pieces of their lives. Others are reluctant to come back, as Israel has stepped up attacks in Lebanon. Communities like Metula that were in the center of the conflict remain little more than ghost towns, most still half empty, with many people skeptical of their government’s promise to keep them safe.
The Israeli strikes into southern Lebanon continue, with several a week. Hezbollah has refused to completely disarm until Israel fully withdraws.
“The security situation is starting to deteriorate again,” Rosenfeld said, looking at the bomb shelters on a list recently distributed by the local government. “And where am I in all this? I can barely survive the day-to-day.”
In some towns on the Israel-Lebanon border, the return has been a trickle
Metula residents were among the 64,000 forced to evacuate and relocate to hotels and temporary homes farther south when Hezbollah began firing rockets over the border into Israel in fall 2023. Months of fighting escalated into a full-fledged war. In September 2024, Israel killed 12 and wounded over 3,000 in a coordinated pager attack and killed Hezbollah’s leader in a strike. A month later, the ceasefire deal was reached.
Today, residents have trickled back to the sprawling apple orchards and mountains as Israel’s government encourages them to go home. Officials say about 55,000 people have returned.
In Metula, just over half of the 1,700 residents are back. Yet the streets remain largely empty.
Many hoped to rebuild their lives, but they returned to find 60 percent of the town’s homes damaged from rocket fire, according to the local government. Others were infested and destroyed by rats. The economy — largely based on tourism and agriculture — has been devastated.
With many people, especially young families, reluctant to return, some business owners have turned to workers from Thailand to fill labor shortages.
“Most of the people who worked with us before the war didn’t come back,” said Jacob Katz, who runs a produce business. “We’ve lost a lot … and we can’t read the future.”
Rosenfeld’s modest cafe and farm were perched on a hill overlooking the border fence. Tourists would come to eat, camp in buses converted to rooms and enjoy the view. But now, the towns on the Lebanese side of the border have been reduced to rubble by Israel’s attacks.
Without a home, Rosenfeld sleeps in a small shelter next to the scraps that remain of his business. He has little more than a tent, a refrigerator and a few chairs. Just a stone’s throw away sit a military watch tower and two armored vehicles.
Israel’s government says it has invested hundreds of millions of dollars in border recovery efforts, that it plans to invest more in economic revival, and that residents can apply for support funds.
But Rosenfeld said that despite his requests for government assistance, he hasn’t received any aid.
He’s among residents and business leaders who say they feel forgotten. Most say they need more resources to rebuild.
“The Israeli government needs to do much more for us,” Metula deputy mayor Avi Nadiv said. “The residents who live on Israel’s northern border, we are Israel’s human shield.”
A spokesman for Zeev Elkin, a Cabinet minister overseeing reconstruction in the north, said the local government has not used funds allocated to reconstruction “due to narrow political and oppositional considerations.”
Hezbollah-Israel tensions are flaring
As Hezbollah refuses to disarm, Israel has accused Lebanon’s government of not doing enough to neutralize the militant group. The Lebanese army says it has boosted its presence over the border area to strengthen the ceasefire.
Israel continues to bombard what it says are Hezbollah sites. Much of southern Lebanon has been left in ruins.
The strikes are among a number of offensives Israel has launched – including those in Gaza, the West Bank and Syria – in what it calls an effort to crack down on militant groups.
The Lebanon strikes have killed at least 127 civilians, including children, since the ceasefire took hold, according to a November UN report. UN special rapporteur Morris Tidball-Binz said the strikes amount to “war crimes.” Israel has maintained that it has the right to continue strikes to protect itself from Hezbollah rearming and accuses the group of using civilians as human shields.
Last week, Israel struck the southern suburbs of the Lebanese capital of Beirut, killing Hezbollah’s top military commander. The group, still weakened by last year’s fighting, has not responded.
‘The army cannot protect me’
In Metula, signs of the tensions are everywhere. The local government’s list of public shelters reads: “Metula is prepared for an emergency.”
Explosions and gunfire periodically echo from military drills while farmer Levav Weinberg plays with his 10-, 8- and 6-year-old children. Weinberg, a military reservist, said his kids are too scared to ride their bikes on the street.
Weinberg, 44, and his family returned in July, skeptical of the government’s promise that everything was returning to normal but eager to keep their business alive.
Metula’s government continues to encourage people to come back, telling residents the region is safe and the economy will bounce back.
“Today we feel the winds of, let’s call it, the winds of war – but it doesn’t deter us,” Nadiv said. “Coming back to Metula – there’s nothing to be afraid of. ... The army is here. The houses are fortified. Metula is prepared for anything.”
Weinberg isn’t so sure. In recent weeks, he and his wife have considered leaving once again.
“The army cannot protect me and my family,” Weinberg said. “You sacrifice your family to live in Metula these days. It’s not a perfect life, it’s not that easy, and at some point your kids pay the price.”