Palestinian refugees return to Yarmouk amid questions about their place in the new Syria

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In this Jan. 31, 2014 file photo released by the United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East (UNRWA), shows residents of the besieged Palestinian camp of Yarmouk, lining up to receive food supplies, in Damascus, Syria. (AP)
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An aerial view of remaining buildings is seen which were not only destroyed during the civil war, they were also demolished by the government or stripped by thieves, at the Palestinian refugee camp of Yarmouk, outside Damascus, Syria, Saturday, Dec. 14, 2024. (AP)
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Updated 14 December 2024
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Palestinian refugees return to Yarmouk amid questions about their place in the new Syria

  • “The new Syrian leadership, how will it deal with the Palestinian issue?” said Palestinian ambassador to Syria Samir Al-Rifai. “We have no information because we have had no contact with each other so far”

DAMASCUS: The Yarmouk refugee camp outside Damascus was considered the capital of the Palestinian diaspora before the war in Syria reduced it to row after row of blasted out buildings where there were once falafel stands, pharmacies and mosques.
Taken over by a series of militant groups then bombarded by government planes, the camp has been all but abandoned since 2018. The buildings that were not destroyed by bombs were demolished by the government or stripped by thieves. Those who wanted to return to rebuild their homes were stymied by Kafkaesque bureaucratic and security requirements.
But bit by bit, the camp’s former occupants have trickled back. After the Dec. 8 fall of former Syrian President Bashar Assad in a lightening offensive by opposition forces, many more hope they will be able do so.




A Palestinian woman Taghrid Halawi, left, with her two relatives speaks during an interview with the Associated Press at the Palestinian refugee camp of Yarmouk, outside Damascus, Syria, Saturday, Dec. 14, 2024. (AP)

At the same time, Syria’s Palestinian refugees — a population of about 450,000 — are unsure of their place in the new order.
“The new Syrian leadership, how will it deal with the Palestinian issue?” said Palestinian ambassador to Syria Samir Al-Rifai. “We have no information because we have had no contact with each other so far.”
Days after Assad’s government collapsed, women walked in groups through the streets of Yarmouk while children played in the rubble. Motorcycles, bicycles and the occasional car passed between bombed-out buildings. In one of the less heavily damaged areas, a fruit and vegetable market was doing brisk business.
Some people were coming back for the first time in years to check on their homes. Others had been back before but only now were thinking about rebuilding and returning for good.
Ahmad Al-Hussein left the camp in 2011, soon after the beginning of the anti-government uprising-turned-civil-war. A few months ago, driven by rising rents elsewhere, he came back to live with relatives in a part of the camp that was relatively untouched.
He is now hoping to rebuild his home in a building that was reduced to a hollowed-out shell and marked for demolition.
Under Assad’s rule, getting permission from security agencies to enter the camp “wasn’t easy,” Al-Hussein said. “You would have to sit at a table and answer who’s your mother, who’s your father, and who in your family was arrested and who was with the rebels. … Twenty-thousand questions to get the approval,”
He said people who had been reluctant now want to return, among them his son, who fled to Germany.
Taghrid Halawi came with two other women on Thursday to check on their houses. They spoke wistfully of the days when the streets of the camp used to buzz with life until 3 or 4 a.m.
“You really feel that your Palestine is here, even though you are far from Palestine,” Halawi said. “Even with all this destruction, I feel like it’s like heaven. I hope that everyone returns, all the ones who left the country or are living in other areas.”
Yarmouk was built in 1957 as a Palestinian refugee camp but grew into a vibrant suburb where many working-class Syrians settled. Before the war, some 1.2 million people lived in Yarmouk, including 160,000 Palestinians, according to the UN agency for Palestinian refugees, UNRWA. Today, it houses some 8,160 Palestinian refugees who remained or have returned.
Palestinian refugees in Syria are not given citizenship, ostensibly to preserve their right to go back to the homes they fled or were forced from during the 1948 creation of the state of Israel and where they are currently banned from returning.
But in contrast to neighboring Lebanon, where Palestinians are banned from owning property or working in many professions, in Syria, Palestinians historically had all the rights of citizens except the right to vote and run for office — a negligible matter given that the outcome of Syrian elections was largely predetermined.
At the same time, Palestinian factions have had a complicated relationship with Syrian authorities. Former Syrian President Hafez Assad and Palestinian Liberation Organization leader Yasser Arafat were bitter adversaries. Many Palestinians were imprisoned for belonging to Arafat’s Fatah movement.
Mahmoud Dakhnous, a retired teacher who returned to Yarmouk to check on his demolished house, said he used to be frequently called in for questioning by the Syrian intelligence services.
“Despite their claims that they are with the (Palestinian) resistance, in the media they were, but on the ground the reality was something else,” he said of the Assad dynasty.
In recent years, the Syrian government began to roll back the right of Palestinians to own and inherit property.
As for the country’s new rulers, “we need more time to judge” their stance toward Syria’s Palestinians, Dahknous said.
“But the signs so far in this week, the positions and proposals that are being put forward by the new government are good for the people and the citizens,” he said.
Yarmouk’s Palestinian factions tried to remain neutral when Syria’s civil war broke out, but by late 2012, the camp was pulled into the conflict and different factions took opposing sides.
Since the fall of Assad, the factions have been angling to solidify their relationship with the new government. A group of Palestinian factions said in a statement Wednesday that they had formed a body, headed by the Palestinian ambassador, to manage relations with Syria’s new authorities.
The new leadership — headed by Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham, an Islamic militant group — has not officially commented on the status of Palestinian refugees or regarding its stance toward Israel, which the previous Syrian government never recognized.
The Syrian interim government on Friday sent a complaint to the UN Security Council denouncing the incursion by Israeli forces into Syrian territory in the Golan Heights and their bombardment of multiple areas in Syria. But HTS leader Ahmad Al-Sharaa, formerly known as Abu Mohammed Al-Golani, has said the new administration does not seek a conflict with Israel.
Al-Rifai said the new government’s security forces had entered the offices of three Palestinian factions and removed the weapons that were there, but that it was unclear whether there had been an official decision to disarm Palestinian groups.
“We are fully aware that the new leadership has issues that are more important” than the issue of Palestinian refugees, he said, including “the issue of stability first.”
For now, he said, Palestinians are hoping for the best. “We expect the relationship between us to be a better relationship.”
 

 


The journalists behind Sarkozy’s Libya corruption woes

Updated 28 sec ago
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The journalists behind Sarkozy’s Libya corruption woes

  • Sarkozy, a conservative with two convictions in other cases, has always maintained he is innocent and points to his key role in ousting Qaddafi

PARIS: Every day at the Paris court trying ex-president Nicolas Sarkozy over alleged corruption with Libyan dictator Muammar Qaddafi, the journalists who helped uncover the extraordinary allegations are following proceedings.

Fabrice Arfi and Karl Laske have spent 14 years documenting the links between Sarkozy’s entourage and the late Qaddafi, who is alleged to have funded the rightwinger’s 2007 election campaign with cash and offshore bank accounts.

The pair from the Mediapart news outlet have traveled the world for secret meetings with sources, tracked money to a host of tax havens, and been sued five times over their reporting — always unsuccessfully.

What is arguably the most shocking corruption trial in modern French history is the pinnacle of their work, sparking pride but also pressure for a duo with a track record in uncovering financial crime. “When you see a former president and three former ministers sat together on four folding chairs, with the justice system asserting ‘you were corrupted by a dictator,’ you know you are a witness to a historic event,” Arfi said in an interview.

“I don’t know what the outcome will be — it’s not down to me to say if they will be found guilty or not — but it shows that our work was not for nothing.”

Pushed on whether he thought the trial would have taken place without his and Laske’s relentless digging, he awkwardly conceded that “they played a role.”

“With all due modesty, without our investigation, prosecutors might not have opened their case,” added Arfi, the 43-year-old son of a police officer whose regular scoops have helped turn Mediapart into a profitable independent news site.

The Libya investigation began in 2011 when an individual contacted the newsroom, offering confidential information.

Arfi and Laske traveled abroad — Arfi withholds all of the details to protect the source — and received a computer hard drive said to belong to an infamous Franco Lebanese arms dealer called Ziad Takieddine.

When they returned to their hotel, they realized they had been given a potential goldmine — “Ali Baba’s cave,” Arfi says — containing Takieddine’s personal diary, emails, bank transfers and even photographs.

While French investigators were already looking at Takieddine’s role as a middleman in French arms deals in the 1990s, Arfi and Laske began verifying and confirming his more recent dealings with Qaddafi.

“We didn’t understand everything to start with. There are bits that are like pieces of the puzzle that only make sense once you have found the others,” he explained.

The first articles on Takieddine’s ties to Sarkozy allies made a few waves but the allegations would become more serious as Arfi and Laske dug deeper.

In 2012, during the presidential election campaign in which Sarkozy was seeking a second term, they published a document that caused a political earthquake — and a lot of professional soul-searching.

“We published in the middle of an election campaign, which is a difficult time for a news outlet,” Arfi explained. “But withholding it would have been worse.”

The document, handed over by a source with access to Libyan archives after the 2011 fall of Qaddafi, purported to show an offer of $50 million from the dictator to fund Sarkozy’s campaign, signed and stamped by Libyan intelligence chief Moussa Koussa. Sarkozy lost the election and sued, alleging the document was fake.

It, along with other evidence unearthed by Mediapart, will be presented during the trial which is scheduled to last until April 10.

Takieddine’s hard drive was also handed over to police by Arfi’s source.

Sarkozy, 69, alleges that he is the victim of a conspiracy between politically biased judges, police and left-leaning Mediapart.

In his first comments in court last week, Sarkozy called Arfi and Karl Laske “thugs” and angrily told judges that “you will never ever find a single euro, a single Libyan cent in my campaign.”

Arfi claims Sarkozy has been successful in deflecting public attention, using the same playbook as other right-wing populists.


Talks underway to open Egypt-Gaza border crossing for aid: Egypt state media

Updated 25 min ago
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Talks underway to open Egypt-Gaza border crossing for aid: Egypt state media

CAIRO: Egyptian state media reported Wednesday that coordination was underway to “open the Palestinian Rafah crossing to allow the entry of international aid” into Gaza, citing an Egyptian security source.
Egypt was “preparing to bring in the largest possible amount of aid to the Gaza Strip,” following news of a ceasefire deal reached between Israel and Hamas, state-owned newspaper Al-Ahram said.
It cited a report from Al-Qahera News, which is closely linked to state intelligence.
Mediators said Israel and Hamas agreed Wednesday to a ceasefire and a deal to release hostages held in Gaza, but Israel cautioned that the final sticking points needed to be ironed out.
Pressure to put an end to the fighting had ratcheted up in recent days, as mediators Qatar, Egypt and the United States intensified efforts to cement an agreement.
The Rafah border crossing has been closed since May, when the Israeli military seized the area and closed the Palestinian side of the crossing.
Egypt has repeatedly said it will only recognize Palestinian authority over the crossing.
Al-Qahera News on Wednesday said the framework agreement comprised of three interconnected phases.
The first would last 42 days and involve a temporary halt to military operations on both sides.
It would also require the withdrawal of Israeli forces away from population centers and toward Gaza’s borders, as well as the temporary cessation of flyovers by Israeli warplanes and reconnaissance aircraft for 10 hours each day.


International reaction to Gaza ceasefire deal

Palestinians react to news on a ceasefire deal with Israel, in Deir Al-Balah in the central Gaza Strip on Wednesday. (Reuters)
Updated 15 January 2025
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International reaction to Gaza ceasefire deal

Israel and Hamas agreed to a ceasefire deal on Wednesday, mediators said, pausing a devastating 15-month war in Gaza and raising the possibility of winding down an Israeli military operation that has killed more than 46,000 Palestinians.
The deal, coming after weeks of painstaking negotiations in the Doha, promises the release in phases of dozens of hostages held by Hamas since it led an attack on Israel in October 2023 that killed at least 1,200 people.
International response to the deal, which is yet to be confirmed by Israel, overwhelmingly welcomed the agreement.
US President Elect Donald Trump welcomed the deal ahead of US official comment and focussed his comments on the Israeli hostages.
"We have a deal for the hostages in the Middle East. They will be released shortly. Thank you!" he said in a post on his Truth Social platform.
Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan told reporters in Ankara that the ceasefire deal was an important step for regional stability. Fidan also said Turkish efforts for a two-state solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict would continue.

More to follow ...

*With AP and Reuters


Shiite blocs fail to attend opening day of talks on forming new Lebanese government

Updated 15 January 2025
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Shiite blocs fail to attend opening day of talks on forming new Lebanese government

  • Hezbollah and Amal refuse to participate after MPs choose Nawaf Salam as prime minister-designate, rather than caretaker PM Najib Mikati as Hezbollah expected
  • Change Alliance says ‘Lebanon has entered a new phase,’ calls for quota-free government in which women are properly represented

BEIRUT: The speaker of the Lebanese parliament, Nabih Berri, failed to attend a scheduled meeting on Wednesday with Prime Minister-designate Nawaf Salam, as the Shiite Amal and Hezbollah blocs refused to participate on day one of non-binding consultations on forming a new government.

The talks will continue until Thursday evening with the aim of gauging the opinions of parliamentary blocs, independent MPs and reformist MPs about the structure and participation in the new government.

The failure of the Shiite blocs to attend was a response to what Hezbollah MP Mohammed Raad described as a “trap” and act of “exclusion,” after a majority of MPs this week voted for Salam as prime minister-designate, rather than the incumbent caretaker PM, Najib Mikati, as Hezbollah had expected.

On the eve of the consultations, both the newly appointed President Joseph Aoun and Salam stressed that “there is no intention to break or exclude any party in the country, but rather to promote unity and partnership.” However, Hezbollah and Amal maintained their positions and refused to participate in the talks.

Adding to the uncertainty, Amal Movement MP Qassem Hashem stated that “not attending the consultations does not mean boycotting the government or the prime minister-designate.” He said the blocs were “taking a political stance, not one directed against the prime minister-designate, as what he said yesterday offers grounds for engagement.”

According to media reports, “communication between Salam and Berri has not ceased, and the period between the conclusion of non-binding parliamentary consultations and the subsequent negotiations on the formation of the government between the parties is expected to determine whether the Amal and Hezbollah blocs will choose to participate in the government.”

On the question of whether the aim of the refusal to participate was to send a message abroad, Berri said: “Lebanon must move forward.”

Independent MP Ibrahim Mneimneh told Arab News: “It is essential today to approach matters with wisdom and to return to communication. No party should feel excluded or perceive any intention to undermine the other, and all must unite in the endeavor of state-building.”

Regarding allusions by Hezbollah to the issue of losing legitimacy, Mneimneh said: “The matter of legitimacy is more of a political issue than a constitutional one. Therefore, when those with concerns are reassured, I believe that matters will proceed normally. This phase is crucial for state building, and it is expected that everyone participates in this process.”

The opening day of the consultations were limited to the parliamentary blocs, which predominantly represent partisan trends.

MP Mark Daou, representing the Change Alliance, said: “Lebanon has entered a new phase. We demanded a smaller government consisting of new faces in which women are represented, far from partisan quotas, with the necessity of playing a major political role, and without mixing the parliament with the ministry, and without returning to the trilogy: army, people, resistance.”

MP Taymour Jumblatt, leader of the Democratic Gathering bloc, said after talks with Salam: “We have an opportunity to build the state of the future. We focused on the necessity of communicating with everyone and opening a dialogue with everyone, as no one can cancel the other. We also hope that political actors will ease the pressure on (President) Joseph Aoun and Nawaf Salam.”

MP Ibrahim Kanaan, representing the Independent Consultative Gathering, said: “The designated prime minister is eager to engage with everyone and cooperate with them. We hope that the Shiite duo (Hezbollah and Amal) will join hands with us.

“In light of our objectives, all obstacles can be overcome and it is crucial to have political will behind those appointed to the government to facilitate and ensure the success of the mandate.

“There is a pressing need for courage, decisive action and implementation, particularly regarding administration, finance and financial accounts.”

MP Sagih Atieh said the National Moderation bloc called for a “ministerial portfolio, the acceleration of the government formation process, and the inclusion of all parties in it.” During the talks, he added, “Salam emphasized the principle of balanced development.”

The head of the Free Patriotic Movement, MP Gebran Bassil, said: “The appointment of Salam is not a defeat for anyone but a victory for the reformist ideology.”

He added that his bloc “has not made any demands regarding the government and is ready to assist, believing that the government should represent parliamentary forces but consist of specialists.”

MP George Adwan, speaking on behalf of the Strong Republic bloc led by the Lebanese Forces party, called for “the government’s plan to align with the speech delivered by the president when he took the oath.”

He added: “We do not wish to return to any previous political formulas, including ‘army, people and resistance.’ The state’s authority must extend over all of its territories, while the era of national consensus governments must come to an end.”

Adwan reiterated his bloc’s calls for “a fight against corruption and for an indictment to be issued in the Beirut port explosion case within the next few months.

“Additionally, we will not accept any plan that would involve writing off depositors’ funds. We also want the negotiations with the International Monetary Fund to be relaunched, while the new government must reflect the proper representation of the Lebanese people.”

MP Tony Frangieh said the Independent National Bloc wants “the formation of a government composed of competent individuals and capable of addressing the current challenges. We did not discuss our participation in the government. Nawaf Salam possesses the wisdom needed to save Lebanon. It is important for all the country’s components to communicate, as the government requires the broadest consensus possible.”

The head of the Lebanese Kataeb Party bloc, MP Sami Gemayel, said he wants a government “composed of competent individuals. We will let President Aoun and Prime Minister-designate Salam decide on the form of the government.”

He added: “What we see today is far from exclusionary and I wish we had not been excluded in the past.”


Officials tout Gaza ceasefire deal and plan to free hostages, Israel says details still in flux

Updated 2 min 45 sec ago
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Officials tout Gaza ceasefire deal and plan to free hostages, Israel says details still in flux

  • Three officials from US, one from Hamas confirm deal has been reached
  • Deal promises release of dozens of hostages held by Hamas in phases

DOHA: Israel and Hamas agreed to a ceasefire deal to pause the devastating war in the Gaza Strip, multiple officials announced Wednesday, raising the possibility of winding down the deadliest and most destructive fighting between the bitter enemies.
The deal, coming after weeks of painstaking negotiations in the Qatari capital, promises the release of dozens of hostages held by Hamas in phases, the release of hundreds of Palestinian prisoners in Israel and would allow hundreds of thousands of people displaced in Gaza to return to what remains of their homes. It also would flood badly needed humanitarian aid into a territory ravaged by 15 months of war.
Three officials from the US and one from Hamas confirmed that a deal had been reached, while the office of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said final details were still being ironed out.
All three US officials and the Hamas official requested anonymity to discuss the contours of the deal before the official announcement by mediators in Doha.
Netanyahu’s office said in a statement that it hoped “details will be finalized tonight.” Any agreement needs to be approved by Netanyahu’s Cabinet.
Once official, the deal is expected to deliver an initial six-week halt to fighting that is to be accompanied by the opening of negotiations on ending the war altogether.
Over six weeks, 33 of the nearly 100 hostages are to be reunited with their loved ones after months in in captivity with no contact with the outside world, though it’s unclear if all are alive.
It remained unclear exactly when and how many displaced Palestinians would be able to return to what remains of their homes and whether the agreement would lead to a complete end to the war and the full withdrawal of Israeli troops from Gaza — key Hamas demands for releasing the remaining captives.
Many longer-term questions about postwar Gaza remain, including who will rule the territory or oversee the daunting task of reconstruction after a brutal conflict that has destabilized the broader Middle East and sparked worldwide protests.
Hamas triggered the war with its Oct. 7, 2023, cross-border attack, which killed some 1,200 Israelis and took 250 others hostage. Israel responded with a fierce offensive that has killed over 46,000 Palestinians, according to local health officials, displaced an estimated 90 percent of Gaza’s population and sparked a humanitarian crisis.
More than 100 hostages were freed from Gaza in a weeklong truce in November 2023.
The US, along with Egypt and Qatar, have brokered months of indirect talks between the bitter enemies that finally culminated in this latest deal. It comes after Israel and the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah agreed to a ceasefire in November, after more than a year of conflict linked to the war in the Gaza.
Israel responded with a brutal air and ground offensive that has killed over 46,000 Palestinians, according to local health officials. They do not distinguish between civilians and militants but say women and children make up more than half of those killed.
UN and international relief organizations estimate that some 90 percent of Gaza’s 2.3 million people have been displaced, often multiple times. They say tens of thousands of homes have been destroyed and hospitals are barely functioning. Experts have warned that famine may be underway in northern Gaza, where Israel launched a major offensive in early October, displacing tens of thousands of residents.

Palestinians celebrate the announcement of a ceasefire deal between Hamas and Israel in Deir Al-Balah, central Gaza Strip on January 15, 2025. (AP)

“The best day in my life and the life of the Gaza people,” Abed Radwan, a Palestinian father of three, said of the ceasefire deal. “Thank God. Thank God.”
Radwan, who has been displaced from the town of Beit Lahiya for over a year and shelters in Gaza City, said he will try to return to his hometown, and “rebuild my house, and rebuild Beit Lahiya.”
He spoke to AP over the phone. His voice has been overshadowed by celebrations. “People are crying here. They don’t believe it’s true.”
In Israel, hundreds of demonstrators gathered outside Israel’s military headquarters in Tel Aviv, calling for a deal to be completed. Many held posters of hostages held by Hamas, others hoisted candles in the air.
As the deal was announced, some people were unaware that it had gone through. Sharone Lifschitz, whose father Oded is being held in Gaza, told the AP by phone she was stunned and grateful but won’t believe it until she sees all the hostages come home.
“I’m so desperate to see them if by some miracle my father has survived,” she said.
US President Joe Biden, who has provided crucial military aid to Israel but expressed exasperation over civilian deaths, announced the outline of the three-phase ceasefire agreement on May 31. The agreement eventually agreed to followed that framework.
He said the first phase would last for six weeks and include a “full and complete ceasefire,” a withdrawal of Israeli forces from densely populated areas of Gaza and the release of a number of hostages, including women, older adults and wounded people, in exchange for the release of hundreds of Palestinian prisoners. Humanitarian assistance would surge, with hundreds of trucks entering Gaza each day.
The second and most difficult phase would include the release of all remaining living hostages, including male soldiers, and Israeli forces would withdraw from Gaza. The third phase calls for the start of a major reconstruction of Gaza, which faces decades of rebuilding from devastation caused by the war.
Hamas had been demanding assurances for a permanent end to the war and complete withdrawal of all Israeli forces from Gaza. Israel, meanwhile, has repeatedly said it would not halt the war until it destroys Hamas’ military and governing capabilities.
The various players have conducted months of on-again, off-again negotiations. But with Biden’s days in office numbered and President-elect Donald Trump set to take over, both sides had been under heavy pressure to agree to a deal.
Trump celebrated the soon-to-be-announced agreement in a posting on his Truth Social social media platform: “WE HAVE A DEAL FOR THE HOSTAGES IN THE MIDDLE EAST. THEY WILL BE RELEASED SHORTLY. THANK YOU!”
Hezbollah’s acceptance of a ceasefire in Lebanon after it had suffered heavy blows, and the overthrow of President Bashar Assad in Syria, were both major setbacks for Iran and its allies across the region, including Hamas, which was left increasingly isolated.

 


Israel has come under heavy international criticism, including from its closest ally, the United States, over the civilian toll. Israel says it has killed around 17,000 militants — though it has not provided evidence to support the claim. It also blames Hamas for the civilian casualties, accusing the group of using schools, hospitals and residential areas for military purposes.
The International Court of Justice is investigating allegations brought by South Africa that Israel has committed genocide. The International Criminal Court, a separate body also based in The Hague, has issued arrest warrants for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, his defense minister and a Hamas commander for war crimes and crimes against humanity linked to the war.
Israel and the United States have condemned the actions taken by both courts.
Netanyahu also faced great domestic pressure to bring home the hostages, whose plight has captured the nation’s attention. Their families have become a powerful lobbying group with wide public support backed by months of mass protests urging the government to reach a deal with Hamas.
Israeli authorities have already concluded that more than a third of the roughly 100 remaining people held captive are dead, and there are fears that others are no longer alive. A series of videos released by Hamas showing surviving hostages in distress, combined with news that a growing number of abducted Israelis have died, put added pressure on the Israeli leader.
Hamas, a militant group that does not accept Israel’s existence, has come under overwhelming pressure from Israeli military operations, including the invasion of Gaza’s largest cities and towns and the takeover of the border between Gaza and Egypt. Its top leaders, including Yahya Sinwar, who was believed to have helped mastermind the Oct. 7, 2023, attack, have been killed.
But its fighters have regrouped in some of the hardest-hit areas after the withdrawal of Israeli forces, raising the prospect of a prolonged insurgency if the war continues.
Netanyahu has vowed to continue the war until Hamas’s military and governing capabilities are destroyed. But it has never been clear what that would entail or if it’s even possible, given the group’s deep roots in Palestinian society, its presence in Lebanon and the occupied West Bank, and its exiled leadership.
If the ceasefire takes hold, both sides face many difficult and unanswered questions.
As the war winds down, Netanyahu will face growing calls for postwar investigations that could find him at least partially responsible for the security failures of Oct. 7 — the worst in Israel’s history. His far-right governing partners, who opposed a ceasefire deal, could also bring down the coalition and push the country into early elections.
There is still no plan for who will govern Gaza after the war. Israel has said it will work with local Palestinians not affiliated with Hamas or the Western-backed Palestinian Authority. But it is unclear if such partners exist, and Hamas has threatened anyone who cooperates with Israeli forces.
The United States has tried to advance sweeping postwar plans for a reformed Palestinian Authority to govern Gaza with Arab and international assistance. As part of those plans, the US hope Saudi Arabia would normalize relations with Israel in return for US security guarantees and aid in setting up a civilian nuclear program.
But those plans depend on credible progress toward the creation of a Palestinian state, something Netanyahu and much of Israel’s political class oppose. Netanyahu has said Israel will maintain open-ended security control over Gaza as well as the occupied West Bank, territories captured by Israel in the 1967 war that the Palestinians want for their future state.
In the absence of a postwar arrangement with Palestinian support, Hamas is likely to remain a significant force in Gaza and could reconstitute its military capabilities if Israeli forces fully withdraw.