China to hash out stimulus plan with US elections in its sights

A worker walks past a construction site in Beijing on Oct. 31, 2024. (AFP)
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Updated 04 November 2024
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China to hash out stimulus plan with US elections in its sights

  • Beijing is anticipating the result of the US election, with Trump promising tariffs of 60 percent on all Chinese goods if he wins
  • China is battling sluggish domestic consumption, a persistent crisis in the property sector and soaring government debt

BEIJING: China’s top lawmakers gather Monday to hash out a major stimulus package that analysts say could grow even bigger if former US president Donald Trump wins the White House this week.
Beijing has in recent months heeded calls to step up support for the economy after years of inaction, announcing a raft of measures including rate cuts and the easing of some home buying restrictions.
But they have refrained from unveiling a figure for the long-awaited stimulus, disappointing investors after a market rally fizzled when officials repeatedly failed to commit to a top line.
Analysts now hope this number could emerge from this week’s meeting of the Standing Committee of National People’s Congress, the top body of China’s rubber stamp parliament and headed by number three official Zhao Leji.
The standing committee reviews and approves all legislation, including allocating funds out of China’s budget.
“We are expecting more details on the proposals to be passed,” said Heron Lim of Moody’s Analytics, including “how this extra funding would be allocated to address the near-term economic issues.”
Nomura economists expect lawmakers this week to approve around a trillion yuan ($140 billion) in extra budget — mostly for indebted local governments.
Analysts also expect Beijing to approve a one-off one trillion yuan for banks, aimed at writing off non-performing loans over the past four years.
“A lot of money will go to cover losses,” added Natixis’ Alicia Garcia Herrero. “It’s not really a growth push.”
Concrete measures are expected to be announced when the meeting wraps up on Friday — in time for Beijing to take stock of results of presidential elections in the United States.
“We believe the US election results will have some impact on the size of Beijing’s stimulus package,” said Ting Lu, Nomura’s Chief China Economist, in a research note.
Both candidates in the race have pledged to get tougher on Beijing, with Trump promising tariffs of 60 percent on all Chinese goods coming into the country.

Nomura economists expect Beijing to adjust the size of its stimulus depending on the outcome.
“In our view, the size of China’s fiscal stimulus package would be around 10 to 20 percent bigger under a Trump win than under the scenario of a (Kamala) Harris win,” Lu wrote.
But he said that “the major challenges for Beijing emanate from within rather than outside.”

Mired in sea of debt

China is battling sluggish domestic consumption, a persistent crisis in the property sector and soaring government debt — all of which threaten Beijing’s official growth target of five percent for this year.
The property sector was long a key driver of growth, but is now mired in a sea of debt.
Average prices of new residential property ticked up slightly last month, according to a survey of 100 cities by independent researcher China Index Academy.
But China’s cities and provinces are still on the hook for a trove of unfinished and unsold housing units, and repurchasing them could cost Beijing up to 3.3 trillion yuan, according to Natixis estimates.
Prolonged housing woes continue to lead to weak consumer consumption, according to Lim of Moody’s Analytics.
“The average Chinese consumer with existing mortgages does not feel their wealth is increasing,” he said.
The issue of how local governments manage debt is also set to come under scrutiny at the NPC meeting this week.
Authorities at and above the county level will be required to report their debt situation to the NPC each year, Huang Haihua, spokesman for the NPC standing committee’s legislative affairs commission, said at a briefing Friday.
But China’s economic woes run deeper than local mismanagement and empty homes.
“The overall economy is losing productivity out of basically misallocated savings,” said Garcia Herrero, referring to issues within China’s industrial policy spending, including extensive subsidies.
“They need to really change all of that,” she said.
 


South Korea president declares emergency martial law

Updated 03 December 2024
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South Korea president declares emergency martial law

  • The surprise move comes as the ruling and opposition parties continue to bicker over next year’s budget bill
  • Opposition MPs last week approved a significantly downsized budget plan through a parliamentary committee

SEOUL: South Korea’s President Yoon Suk Yeol on Tuesday declared emergency martial law, saying the step was necessary to protect the country from “communist forces” amid parliamentary wrangling over a budget bill.
“To safeguard a liberal South Korea from the threats posed by North Korea’s communist forces and to eliminate anti-state elements... I hereby declare emergency martial law,” Yoon said in a live televised address to the nation.
“With no regard for the livelihoods of the people, the opposition party has paralyzed governance solely for the sake of impeachments, special investigations, and shielding their leader from justice,” he added.
The surprise move comes as Yoon’s People Power Party and the main opposition Democratic Party continue to bicker over next year’s budget bill. Opposition MPs last week approved a significantly downsized budget plan through a parliamentary committee.
“Our National Assembly has become a haven for criminals, a den of legislative dictatorship that seeks to paralyze the judicial and administrative systems and overturn our liberal democratic order,” Yoon said.
He accused opposition lawmakers of cutting “all key budgets essential to the nation’s core functions, such as combatting drug crimes and maintaining public security... turning the country into a drug haven and a state of public safety chaos.”
Yoon went on to label the opposition, which holds a majority in the 300-member parliament, as “anti-state forces intent on overthrowing the regime” and called his decision “inevitable.”
“I will restore the country to normalcy by getting rid of anti-state forces as soon as possible.”


South Korean president declares emergency martial law, accusing opposition of anti-state activities

Updated 03 December 2024
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South Korean president declares emergency martial law, accusing opposition of anti-state activities

  • Yoon made the announcement during a televised briefing
  • Yoon has struggled to push his agenda against an opposition-controlled parliament

SEOUL: South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol declared an “emergency martial law,” Tuesday accusing the country’s opposition of controlling the parliament, sympathizing with North Korea and paralyzing the government with anti-state activities.
Yoon made the announcement during a televised briefing, vowing to “eradicate pro-North Korean forces and protect the constitutional democratic order.” It wasn’t immediately clear how the steps would affect the country’s governance and democracy.
Yoon — whose approval rating has dipped in recent months — has struggled to push his agenda against an opposition-controlled parliament since taking office in 2022.
Yoon’s conservative People Power Party had been locked in an impasse with the liberal opposition Democratic Party over next year’s budget bill. He has also been dismissing calls for independent investigations into scandals involving his wife and top officials, drawing quick, strong rebukes from his political rivals.
The Democratic Party reportedly called an emergency meeting of its lawmakers following Yoon’s announcement.


King Charles welcomes Emir of Qatar as state visit begins

Updated 03 December 2024
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King Charles welcomes Emir of Qatar as state visit begins

  • The emir and his wife Sheikha Jawaher bint Hamad bin Suhaim Al-Thani arrived at Horse Guards Parade
  • Joined by Prince William and Princess of Wales, Catherine

LONDON: King Charles and Keir Starmer welcomed Qatar’s emir, Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani, for a state visit to Britain on Tuesday.

The emir and his wife Sheikha Jawaher bint Hamad bin Suhaim Al-Thani arrived by car at Horse Guards Parade in London with Prince William and his wife Catherine, who was marking her return to formal state visit duties after undergoing preventative chemotherapy for cancer.

Charles, who is continuing his own treatment for cancer, and the emir inspected the 1st Battalion Welsh Guards while a military band played.

The reception was to be followed by a trip to Westminster where the emir was set to address both chambers of the British Houses of Parliament.

 


Trump says he’ll attend Notre Dame Cathedral reopening celebration in Paris this weekend

Updated 03 December 2024
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Trump says he’ll attend Notre Dame Cathedral reopening celebration in Paris this weekend

  • Trump announced that he will be among them in a post on his Truth Social site Monday evening
  • “It is an honor to announce that I will be traveling to Paris, France, on Saturday to attend the re-opening of the Magnificent and Historic Notre Dame Cathedral,” he wrote

NEW YORK: President-elect Donald Trump will attend the reopening celebration for Notre Dame Cathedral in Paris this weekend, his first foreign trip since the election.
The cathedral is set to reopen Saturday after more than five years of reconstruction following a devastating fire in 2019 that engulfed and nearly destroyed the soaring Paris landmark. The ceremonies being held Saturday and Sunday will be high-security affairs, with about 50 heads of state and government expected to attend.
Trump announced that he will be among them in a post on his Truth Social site Monday evening.
“It is an honor to announce that I will be traveling to Paris, France, on Saturday to attend the re-opening of the Magnificent and Historic Notre Dame Cathedral, which has been fully restored after a devastating fire five years ago,” he wrote. “President Emmanuel Macron has done a wonderful job ensuring that Notre Dame has been restored to its full level of glory, and even more so. It will be a very special day for all!”
The trip will be Trump’s first abroad since he won November’s presidential election. He traveled to Scotland and Ireland in May 2023, as a candidate, to visit his local golf courses.
Trump was president in 2019 when a massive fire engulfed Notre Dame, collapsing its spire and threatening to destroy one of the world’s greatest architectural treasures, known for its mesmerizing stained glass.
Trump watched the inferno in horror, along with the rest of the world.
“So horrible to watch the massive fire at Notre Dame Cathedral in Paris,” he wrote on what was then named Twitter, offering his advice to the city.
“Perhaps flying water tankers could be used to put it out. Must act quickly!” he wrote.
French officials appeared to respond shortly after, noting that “All means” were being used to extinguish the flames, “except for water-bombing aircrafts which, if used, could lead to the collapse of the entire structure of the cathedral.”
Trump also spoke with Macron and Pope Francis at the time to offer his condolences and said he had offered them “the help of our great experts on renovation and construction.”
Trump and Macron have had a complicated relationship.
During Trump’s first term in office, Macron proved to be among the world leaders most adept at managing the American president’s whims as he tried to develop a personal connection built in no small part on flattery.
Macron was the guest of honor at Trump’s first state dinner and Trump traveled to France several times. But the relationship soured as Trump’s term progressed and Macron criticized him for questioning the need for NATO and raising doubts about America’s commitment to the mutual-defense pact.
As he ran for a second term this year, Trump often mocked Macron on the campaign trail, imitating his accent and threatening to impose steep tariffs on wine and champagne bottles shipped to the US if France tried to tax American companies.
After Trump won another term last month, Macron rushed to win favor with the president-elect. He was among the first global leaders to congratulate Trump — even before The Associated Press called the race in his favor — and beat UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer to the punch in delivering a congratulatory phone call.
“Congratulations, President @realDonaldTrump,” Macron posted on X early on Nov 6. “Ready to work together as we did for four years. With your convictions and mine. With respect and ambition. For more peace and prosperity.”
Macron and other European leaders are trying to persuade Trump not to abandon America’s support for Ukraine in its fight against Russia’s nearly three-year invasion. European leaders hope to convince Trump that a victory by Russia would be viewed as a defeat for the US — and for the incoming president, by extension — hoping to sell him on the need to pursue an end to the war more favorable to Kyiv than he might otherwise seek.
Trump over the weekend announced that he intends to nominate real estate developer Charles Kushner, the father of his son-in-law, Jared Kushner, to serve as ambassador to France. The elder Kushner was pardoned by Trump in December 2020 after pleading guilty years earlier to tax evasion and making illegal campaign donations.
The reopening of Notre Dame will be an elaborate, multi-day celebration, beginning Saturday.
Paris Archbishop Laurent Ulrich will preside at a reopening service that afternoon, banging on Notre Dame’s shuttered doors with his staff to reopen them, according to the cathedral’s website.
The archbishop will also symbolically reawaken Notre Dame’s thunderous grand organ. The fire that melted the cathedral’s lead roofing coated the huge instrument in toxic dust. Its 8,000 pipes have been painstakingly disassembled, cleaned and retuned.
Macron will attend and address the VIP guests.
After the service, opera singers Pretty Yende, from South Africa, and Julie Fuchs, from France; Chinese pianist Lang Lang; Paris-born cellist Yo-Yo Ma; Benin-born singer Angelique Kidjo; Lebanese singer Hiba Tawaji and others will perform at a concert Saturday evening, according to the show’s broadcaster, France Télévisions.
On Sunday morning, the Paris archbishop will lead an inaugural Mass and consecration of the new altar.
Nearly 170 bishops from France and other countries will join the celebration, along with priests from all 106 parishes in the Paris diocese. The Mass will be followed by a “fraternal buffet” for the needy.
Ile de la Cité, where the cathedral sits in the middle of the River Seine, will be blocked off to tourists for the events. A public viewing area with room for 40,000 spectators will be set up along the Seine’s southern bank.


Police crack encrypted messaging service used by criminals, Europol says

Updated 03 December 2024
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Police crack encrypted messaging service used by criminals, Europol says

  • The messaging service called MATRIX was discovered on the phone of a criminal
  • “The messages that were intercepted are linked to serious crimes,” Europol said

AMSTERDAM: An encrypted messaging service that was used for international drug and arms trafficking has been taken down by European authorities, Europol said on Tuesday.
The messaging service called MATRIX was discovered on the phone of a criminal convicted for the murder of Dutch celebrity crime reporter Peter R. de Vries in 2021, Europol said.
A large-scale investigation by the Dutch and French authorities managed to intercept the messaging service and monitor activity for three months, leading to the deciphering of more than 2.3 million messages in 33 languages.
“The messages that were intercepted are linked to serious crimes such as international drug trafficking, arms trafficking, and money laundering,” Europol said.
“Authorities were able to monitor the messages from possible criminals, which will now be used to support other investigations.”
The main servers in France and Germany were taken down, with one suspect arrested in France and two in Spain. Homes were also searched in Lithuania, Europol said.