The cost of Pakistan’s hyper politics
https://arab.news/mw59g
These are not ordinary days in Pakistan. News is flashing across television and android screens across the country that one third of Pakistan is submerged under flood waters leaving millions homeless, with harsh food shortages, undrinkable water and impending disease. These creeping floods had begun back in June, first in Balochistan and now across the country. Now, more rains may come.
As food prices shoot up, agricultural crops lie rotting under flood waters. Livestock has perished, while roads, highways and houses have been washed away and millions are stranded with no easy exit. Relief work continues. In addition to the government’s National Disaster Management Authority, civil servants and the army there are no less than thousands of self-motivated volunteers. But matching relief with the devastation will not be easy, everyone knows. It is a hellish endeavour.
Yet, playing out in a whole other plane of existence, another battle has most Pakistanis wondering: For how much longer? When will free-fall political battles settle down to playing within some credible rules, some constitutional rules?
Instead, it gets worse like it did last week. The day began with audio leaks of two conversations between two Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaaf (PTI) provincial finance ministers and the former PTI finance minister Shaukat Tarin. The thrust of the former finance minister’s conversation was two-fold: one that the provincial ministers must immediately write to the federal finance minister to let him know that because of the large scale flood damage and destruction, the provinces will not be able to ensure financial surplus and therefore would not be able to abide by the commitment they had given earlier in writing to the federation. This commitment was necessary for fulfilling one of the key IMF conditions before it could release a $1.2 billion tranche. Consequently, Tarin’s advice to the provincial ministers could put the release of IMF funds in jeopardy.
The Tarin phone calls were clearly suggesting a political move that could have led to potential disaster for Pakistan, and yet the PTI tried to explain it away as a positive act.
Nasim Zehra
On August 29, the IMF Board was to meet in Washington and agree on the release of the tranche that Pakistan so desperately needed. For months, the country has been lurking around the nearly look-alike Sri Lanka situation, and its tragically gutted economy. Will Pakistan default, was the question many raised, fearing devastating economic consequences.
The Tarin phone calls were clearly suggesting a political move that could have led to potential disaster for Pakistan, and yet the PTI tried to explain it away as a positive act.
In its damage limitation exercise, PTI’s leadership insisted that former finance minister Tarin was merely facilitating the federal government in its bid to get concessions from the IMF. This of course was not the case. PTI was framing the leaked conversations in a positive mode so that the barrage of criticism targeting the party could be staved off.
The PTI-government battle too, of course, has reached new lows. The government had filed a case against the former Prime Minister under the Anti-Terrorism Act, seeking to frame him as a terrorist. Multiple cases in court combined with the endless war of vicious words and impassioned anger meant all else would become secondary to the political war. It was in this political war mode that Tarin, the party’s finance guru, tutored the KP and Punjab finance ministers on how to renege from their earlier written commitments.
While under normal circumstances the center- province argument over funds is not unusual, in this case it could have caused an existential crisis with the IMF. Interestingly, the final IMF approval for releasing the much awaited $1.7 billion tranche was to be finalized on the very day these audio leaks took place.
Some criticism of PTI for a move potentially damaging for Pakistan’s economy will linger on but without inflicting any political damage on the party. Pakistan’s political polarization has reached a previously unknown climax. Imran Khan’s street power remains intact. He remains an icon for followers and overseas Pakistanis. He alone has the ability to raise five billion rupees within three hours of telethon fund-raising.
Yet, hyper-mode politics continues, as do its costs. The cost of a political arena which has multiple parliamentary and non- parliamentary players, multiple play books with no credible rules, is perhaps the most damaging to Pakistan’s governance and security. Neither can nature’s unkind targeting of Pakistan nor the challenges from within or outside be effectively tackled.
Pakistan must step out of its hyper-mode politics. Will the politicians collectively agree to play by some set rules? That is the yet unanswered million dollar question.
- Nasim Zehra is an author, analyst and national security expert.
Twitter: @NasimZehra
