Big ramifications for region and Pakistan of US Speaker’s visit to Taiwan
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Speaker of the US House of Representatives Nancy Pelosi recently visited Taiwan despite strong objections from China and disregarding advice from the US administration.
During the visit she underscored 'values and interests' that bind US and Taiwan and the US support for Taiwan's 'self-governance and self-determination' that were bound to be interpreted by China as encouraging Taiwan's independence.
Clearly such a high-level visit from the US to Taiwan seriously dented the 'one China' US commitment that has been foundational to the development of US -China relations for the past 50 years.
The US administration has tried to back away from any over-reading by China of the Pelosi visit, just as it has on some occasions tried to mellow the impact of President Biden's spontaneous comments about US readiness to commit forces in defence of Taiwan.
The Chinese reaction to the Pelosi visit has been a furious display of military drills including firing of missiles and naval encirclement of Taiwan as well as termination of bilateral talks with US concerning military, maritime and climate change.
The Pelosi visit constitutes a defining moment in worsening relations between the US and China. Hopes for building guardrails to manage systemic rivalry and competition between the two superpowers have diminished. Talk of conflict across the Taiwan straits has sharpened. That hostilities may engulf the Asia-Pacific and the world have assumed an ominous dimension.
President Xi Jinping's stated vision of 'rejuvenation' of the Chinese nation by 2049 includes return of Taiwan to the motherland. The vast majority of states in the world subscribe to the One China policy. That President Xi will take steps for reunification of Taiwan is viewed as a given. He seeks an extended term of office later this year at the Communist Party Congress.
Chinese nationalists have started to give up on reconciling with the US as a pragmatic preposition. In short, the frayed relations may be speeding towards a hot confrontation. Tensions are soaring in the South and East China Seas and in the wider Asia-Pacific region.
The Pelosi visit constitutes a defining moment in worsening relations between the US and China. Hopes for building guardrails to manage systemic rivalry and competition between the two superpowers have diminished.
Salman Bashir
Pakistan, along with other regional states, faces enormous dilemmas. Efforts at balancing relations between the US and China will become increasingly difficult. On the one hand, Pakistan and China are 'iron brothers' but on the other there is more than 70 years of pro- US/ West history of strategic orientation and tactical cooperation.
Internal political turmoil coupled with a sinking economy makes Pakistan dependent on western largesse. Increasingly the domestic political situation will be influenced by mega global and regional trends. It was Pakistan’s fervent hope that China-US will reach a stable equilibrium. This now seems wishful.
Pakistan under no circumstances can forgo its special relations with China. This is evident from the Foreign Ministry's carefully crafted statements that reiterated the ‘One China' policy support at the height of tensions occasioned during the Pelosi visit.
The military however is trying hard to keep the Pakistan-US track going especially in terms of intelligence and tactical military cooperation with the CIA and Pentagon.
The new government in Islamabad also acknowledges Pakistan’s dependence on the West. That IMF and other Bretton Woods institutions are controlled by the West, limit Pakistan’s policy choices due to domestic economic vulnerabilities.
The situation is further complicated by the US/ West blind support to India in the context of China containment. Pakistan’s concerns about the imminent threat of India to its security especially under the BJP government do not register in the wider context of geopolitical competition.
The Pelosi visit to Taiwan had nothing to do with Pakistan but has triggered global and regional processes to its detriment. Rational policy choices would necessitate greater emphasis by Pakistan on regionalism. This formed a core concept in Pakistan’s National Security Strategy which placed a premium on economic development.
Unfortunately, ongoing political discord is sapping national cohesion and undermining the country's economy. The ability to garner Pakistan’s strategic location for sound foreign policy choices is now severely constrained. Yet, Pakistan will be impacted by ongoing global and regional trends. History will not wait for Pakistan to put its house in order.
- Salman Bashir is a Pakistani diplomat who served as Foreign Secretary of Pakistan and as High Commissioner of Pakistan to India.
Twitter: @Salman_B_PK
