The by-elections that will determine Pakistan’s political future

In the political battleground for Pakistan’s most populous province Punjab, things are heating up.

After the resignation of Usman Buzdar as Punjab chief minister, Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif’s son – Hamza – got himself elected for the post, bagging 197 votes, including 25 of rival PTI’s dissidents. 

The Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf of Imran Khan had boycotted the exercise on account of the young Sharif’s ineligibility for office while corruption cases are pending against him. 

Since voting against the party decision is not permissible under the existing law, the Election Commission of Pakistan de-seated all dissidents for violating party policy.  

Of the de-seated people, replacements for five have to be announced by the PTI on the basis of the principle of proportional representation. The remaining 20 seats will be filled through by-elections, scheduled for July 17. Hectic campaigning is going on in their respective constituencies.   

Unbridled inflation has forced even the common man to stand behind Imran Khan, the cricketer-turned-politician. 

Ashraf Mumtaz

At present, the Punjab Assembly comprises 371 seats and a chief minister is required to have the support of at least 186 votes to stay in the driving seat. The government and opposition are trying their best to win the maximum number of seats. 

The ruling PML-N cannot afford to lose the battle as it will have far-reaching consequences for the party and national politics.  Its defeat will mean Hamza will have to step down as Punjab’s chief executive, a development that will also de-stabilize his father’s government at the centre.  

The election for the coveted post is scheduled for July 22. 

In case no candidate can get the required number of votes, a run-off election will be staged in which the majority of those present in the house at the time will make the yardstick of success.  

The contest is between PML-N’s Hamza and PTI-backed Chaudhry Pervaiz Elahi, who is the incumbent speaker of the Punjab Assembly and provincial president of the PML-Q. Pervaiz has already been Punjab chief minister between 2002-2007.

If Hamza is elected, it will serve a serious blow to the opposition’s politics. On the other hand, Elahi’s win will mean the establishment of another anti-Shehbaz government – and that too in a province that has been a stronghold of the Sharifs for decades. 

Already the governments of KP, Gilgit-Baltistan, and AJK belong to the PTI of Imran Khan.   

The Sindh government is headed by PPP and Balochistan is ruled by a Chief Minister from the Balochistan Awami Party.

Already the federal government is groggy because of the grievances and complaints expressed by various of its allied parties. It has a majority of only two votes because of which it cannot afford to annoy any of them.  

For example, adept at changing loyalties to reap maximum benefits from previous governments, the Muttahida Qaumi Movement (MQM) has already started threatening to part ways with the PML-N.

And then there’s the PML-Q, a tiny party whose President Chaudhry Shujaat Hussain has announced his party’s support for Elahi as chief minister. 

The Awami National Party, which has only a single seat in the National Assembly is not satisfied with the Shehbaz government either.   

Hence in the prevailing situation, it will be a challenging task for the prime minister to keep his vulnerable coalition intact till the next elections. 

The unity of the coalition is important also because former prime minister Imran Khan is holding public meetings to mount pressure on the government to hold fresh elections. Most people say that Imran’s public support is growing with the passage of time, something which is disturbing for the rulers.  

Unbridled inflation has forced even the common man to stand behind the cricketer-turned-politician. In this situation, when both the ruling coalition and the opposition want the establishment’s backing, Army Chief General Bajwa is reported to have directed the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) to keep itself away from all kinds of political matters. After him, the ISI chief passed similar instructions to all of his subordinates. 

But here’s the ultimate question which will crystalize in times ahead: Will the army really confine itself to its professional matters when it’s show time?

- The writer is a senior and veteran journalist with a career spanning 40 years with major national and international newspapers.