Turkish-Israeli relations warming but are not problem-free
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Turkish-Israeli relations today seem to be driven by the well-known Turkish proverb that says, “an old friend can never be a foe.” Ankara and Tel Aviv have recently been trying to turn a new page after more than a decade of tensions in their bilateral relations. The main driving forces behind this new era in relations appear to be economic and security interests. However, it is no secret that Turkey’s relations with Israel are not entirely problem-free. In particular, both sides’ relations with other actors in the region might act as a limiting force in their detente.
On Tuesday, Israel announced that its economic office, located in Istanbul, would resume its operations on Aug. 1, three years after closing due to a diplomatic fallout between the countries. Tel Aviv underlined that its reopening reflected the country’s commitment to deepening economic ties with Turkey. This development is expected to affect about 1,540 Israeli companies, helping to strengthen their business operations in the Turkish market.
It is worth noting that, despite the years of hostility, Turkey and Israel maintained their trade ties and Turkey remained one of Israel’s most important partners. Turkey was the fourth most important trading partner for Israel in 2021 and ranked fifth for its exports. According to the Israeli Foreign Trade Administration, mutual trade in goods and services between Israel and Turkey amounted to $7.7 billion last year, an increase of about 30 percent compared to 2020. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said the two sides hoped trade would reach $10 billion this year.
A free trade agreement was signed between Israel and Turkey in 1996, the same year they also inked a military training and cooperation agreement. As a result of the free trade agreement, four joint economic forums between the two countries have already taken place, the most recent being held in 2009. In light of the recent climate of rapprochement, the fifth session is due to be held in the autumn of 2022.
Another development this week was the announcement of a plan to expand bilateral airline traffic under a new aviation deal. “The agreement is expected to result in the resumption of flights by Israeli companies to a variety of destinations in Turkey, alongside flights by Turkish companies to Israel,” according to a statement issued by Israel’s Transportation Ministry.
The challenges include any potential flare-ups in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and the rising tensions between Turkey and Greece.
Sinem Cengiz
Needless to say, tourism is central to the two countries’ economic ties. Turkey continues to be one of the most popular destinations for Israeli tourists despite security threats. Just last month, Israel issued a travel warning calling on its citizens to avoid traveling to Istanbul, following reports of an Iranian plot to carry out an attack against Israeli and Jewish targets. This warning was later downgraded following the arrest of multiple Iranian operatives by the Turkish authorities. The arrests were the result of weeks of close cooperation between the security services on both sides.
Iran and its proxies in Syria and Lebanon, particularly Hezbollah, remain a crucial concern for Israel. Turkey is well aware of this and considers Israel to be a significant partner in limiting Iranian influence in the Levant. Both the Turkish and Israeli leaderships like the idea of Syria being sandwiched between their two countries. Thus, Iranian uneasiness over the growing Turkish-Israeli cooperation could be clearly read from Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian’s remarks at the start of his visit to Syria on Saturday. He condemned Israel’s latest airstrike on Syria and criticized recent threats from Turkey that it would launch another operation into the north of the country.
Although Turkey’s foreign minister and his Israeli counterpart’s recent reciprocal visits paved the way for improving diplomatic, security and economic relations, Ankara and Tel Aviv still face challenges in their relationship. These include any potential flare-ups in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and the rising tensions between Turkey and Greece. Athens has, in recent years, fostered its relations with Israel.
According to a report this week by the Kathimerini newspaper, Greek forces have started to install Israeli-made military devices that can allegedly cloud the vision of Turkish drones. The report says Greece is “in the final step” of forming a so-called umbrella against Turkish drones and that this umbrella consists of the Israeli-made “Drone Dome” system. There were several earlier stories in the Greek media that said Greece was in negotiations with Israeli manufacturer Rafael for the purchase of such a system.
Tel Aviv attaches importance to its relations with Greece due to its interest in fostering relations with NATO, as well as to maintain a balance in the Eastern Mediterranean. However, Turkey, which has the second-largest army within the Euro-Atlantic alliance and has advanced aerial defense technology, is an actor here that is hard to ignore. Any developments in Israel-NATO relations are not only linked to large geopolitical developments and NATO reforms, but they are also greatly affected by Israel’s warming ties with Turkey.
It is worth noting that the deterioration in Turkish-Israeli relations, especially after the Mavi Marmara flotilla incident in 2010, was also reflected in NATO, with Ankara vetoing Israel’s continued participation in its activities. Therefore, against this background, Israel should be cautious of treading a fine line in its relations with both Turkey and Greece, especially at times of crises between the two neighbors.
• Sinem Cengiz is a Turkish political analyst who specializes in Turkey’s relations with the Middle East. Twitter: @SinemCngz
