The great and ugly game in Pakistan’s heartland
https://arab.news/6bzg2
A historic Supreme Court decision in Pakistan earlier this month saying that the votes of dissident members cannot be counted leaves the future of the ‘elected’ Punjab chief minister Hamza Shehbaz Sharif hanging in the balance. He secured a majority in a controversial election with 25 defectors of the PTI. On top of this somewhat unexpected verdict, the Election Commission of Pakistan has disqualified these members of the Punjab Assembly for voting against the party line, adding further to the political mess in the largest province that serves as a political bellwether for the country. Rather, there is total chaos and a no-holds-barred, naked power struggle to control the province.
It is so crucial, that the survival and stability of the Pakistan Democratic Movement (PDM) coalition government will depend on the outcome of the legal and political battles being fought in the courts. The PTI has used the advantage of its man as President at the center, who appoints governors of the provinces but on the advice of the Prime Minister to prevent the toppling of the Punjab governor. Nevertheless, the PDM government has ‘removed’ the governor by issuing a bureaucratic notification, pending a court decision. So far, its attempts to appoint a governor of its own choice have failed, as the President continues to refuse on one pretext or another. The scene at the assembly is messier, ugly even, and has turned violent several times as the tussle over the removal and fresh election of the speaker continues to be fought on the floor, as well as in the courts. Resultantly, there is no cabinet as yet. The Chief Minister (CM) was sworn in not by the governor, as provided for in the constitution, but under a court order of a single bench by the Speaker of the National Assembly, which is under legal contestation. There is yet another court battle over the validity of the election of the CM.
The game is on in Punjab, and everywhere, while the country gives the look of a rudderless ship on the rough seas.
Rasul Bakhsh Rais
To buy time for winning sufficient members on their side, if and when either re-polling for Chief Minister is conducted or he is asked by the governor to seek a vote-of-confidence in the house, the political rivals are playing a ‘great game’ in Punjab. They are employing every trick and tool from the political kit to outflank each other, in a way never seen or heard before. With 25 PTI members losing their seats, and some members of the PMLN resigning, of course, under encouragement from some quarters, the issue-- which side now has the majority-- requires to be tested by allowing voting. No side appears to be ready for this at this point and to begin with, the PDM will have to get the governor and speaker out. This is not going to be easy or happen any time soon because the political dispute resolution through the courts is uncertain and time-consuming. The political chaos may worsen with the ‘long march’ of PTI happening on May 25, which will turn Punjab into the main battleground.
Defections or breaking ranks with one’s party to support its political rivals in the national and provincial assemblies for long has been a de-stabilizing issue in Pakistan’s parliamentary history. The system Pakistan inherited from colonial Britain rests on the principle of a majority party in the national and provincial assemblies forming the government. The executive being born out of the legislature is accountable to it, and stays in power as long as it enjoys the confidence of the majority. In case no party wins a majority in the elections, the one with more seats than others will exercise its first right to form the government, but the President will require the new government to obtain a vote-of-confidence or show a majority in the legislature. The same procedure is followed in the provinces when elections produce a divided mandate, necessitating cobbling together uneasy political coalitions. Parties with thin majorities in the past have faced problems from factions and dissident ambitious leaders within their fold forming ‘forward blocs’ to bring the government down by switching sides. The rival parties and state institutions have used the agency of individual turncoats, ‘forward blocs’ and buying off of smaller parties to change a regime without taking the trouble of fresh elections.
While the ousted prime minister Imran Khan is pressing for new elections, and to get a date will be marching on the capital, the PDM wants to cling to power, as long as it can to smoothen its way for winning the next election. Its failure to deliver, indecision on key issues to avoid the political fallout, and the worsening of the economy may not earn it the guarantees it seeks. The game is on in Punjab, and everywhere, while the country gives the look of a rudderless ship on the rough seas.
- Rasul Bakhsh Rais is Professor of Political Science in the Department of Humanities and Social Sciences, LUMS, Lahore. His latest book is “Islam, Ethnicity and Power Politics: Constructing Pakistan’s National Identity” (Oxford University Press, 2017). Twitter: @RasulRais
