Cautious optimism: India-Pakistan relations under a Sharif government
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With the PML-N government assuming power, one can, with cautious optimism, expect an improvement in India-Pakistan relations. Recall, that in 2015, PM Modi stopped over in Islamabad on his way back from Afghanistan to congratulate Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif as a gesture of goodwill. There was certainly a better understanding and level of confidence between the two leaders. Imran Khan too, initially expressed his government’s desire to improve relations with India, but soon the détente was over as India withdrew the special status enjoyed by Indian-administered Kashmir in August 2019. The relationship took a turn for the worse as India went even further by separating Jammu from Kashmir and opened up the former state for outside investments and settlement, while the resistance inside Kashmir intensified.
However, the redeeming factor is that even during this period of intense human rights violations in Kashmir and India-Pakistan relations passing through a very difficult period, the ceasefire on the LoC that was negotiated during the earlier Nawaz Sharif government has held. But trade, tourism and other exchanges between the two countries were abruptly suspended.
In the past, Nawaz Sharif and the Bhuttos have taken a more pragmatic approach in their dealings with India, realizing Pakistan’s limitations. Considering that the present government’s tenure will be short, Pakistan is unlikely to make a major move towards breaking the impasse. At best it could relax on trade and open up on religious and normal tourism. An important factor is that the military leadership fully supports engagement and a reduction in tensions. So there are no internal contradictions in pursuing a policy of engagement and opening up to India in selective areas in the future. Most political parties and people in Pakistan generally favour the promotion of better relations with India and expect that its leadership in its own and larger interests of the region will move towards the resolution of the Kashmir issue. This would lead to openings in the economic realm proving beneficial to both countries as well as the region. But without positive movement on the Kashmir issue, the stalemate will continue. Hopefully, Imran Khan who was an ardent supporter of better relations with India, will not change his stance to gain traction in his drive against the present government.
Even during this period of intense human rights violations in Kashmir and India-Pakistan relations passing through a very difficult period, the ceasefire on the LoC that was negotiated during the earlier Nawaz Sharif government, has not broken.
Talat Masood
The developments within India too should facilitate a softening of the anti-Pakistan rhetoric. An improved economy, reduction in Covid cases and more significantly, BJP’s win in Uttar Pradesh, do not require the need to deflect attention by whipping up frenzy against Pakistan or to promote unbridled religious sentiment. But on a more substantial level, for relations to improve and stabilize, there will have to be significant movement or commitment in finding an amicable resolution on Kashmir. And from Pakistan an assurance that organizations such as LeT and others will not be allowed to resurface. Pakistan acting in its larger interests and also as a part of its policy to meet FATF requirements, had taken strict measures to ban and liquidate these militant organizations. Pakistan too expects that India will not use militant organizations operating in Afghanistan, Iran or elsewhere against its territory.
It is evidently clear that the fruits of normalization will be highly beneficial to both countries, but the onus of resolving the Kashmir issue largely rests with India. PM Modi apparently believes that Pakistan’s opposition and support to the beleaguered Kashmiris can be dealt with, without any qualms as the international community is not interested in Kashmir or Palestine and other global threats take priority.
The view that the US-India strategic alignment has brought Pakistan and China even closer-- thereby accentuating the divide and introducing a new element in the India- Pakistan relationship-- is an inflated hypothesis and only partly true. The two countries no doubt seek economic benefits and a strategic boost by closely aligning with antagonistic global powers, but they do retain the ability to manoeuvre their economic and political interests. Of course, India with a much larger economy and greater strategic importance exercises its options with greater ease. Pakistan’s present economic predicaments and political anarchy limits its strategic manoeuvrability and power play, but it does have the potential of exercising its will if it manages its affairs more diligently. As a recent example, India and Pakistan abstained from voting on the UN resolution condemning Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, despite pressure from the US and the European Union. Interestingly, recent statements of the US Secretary of State reinforce the view that Washington has interests in the region. Considering Imran Khan’s constant diatribe against the US, it would not be surprising that it has discreetly welcomed the change of government in Pakistan.
Experience over the years indicates that normalization of relations with India would require solid commitment and resolve. It must go beyond a mere improvement in trade relations. Opening up of visa and more people-to-people exchanges will contribute towards developing good-will. Confidence building at the strategic level is crucial as talks progress at the political stage. Once relations between India and Pakistan stabilize, there are possibilities for cooperation in social welfare- health, education, IT and other areas. The opening of trade and commerce will open up available avenues that have remained frozen.
The opportunity costs of the current embargo on trade and strategic engagement are too high to be ignored any more. The present state of relations has weakened both sides, and set the region back.
– Talat Masood is a retired Lieutenant General from Pakistan Army and an eminent scholar on national security and political issues.
