France’s identity crisis key to presidential vote
https://arab.news/rbhnz
The French presidential election is approaching fast, with the first round of voting due to take place on April 10. This election has two foreign guests: Lebanon and Ukraine. Lebanon, or the theme of “Lebanization,” has been the warning used by candidate Eric Zemmour of what France would become if it voted for a second term for Emmanuel Macron. Meanwhile, Ukraine and the war that started just as Macron announced his candidacy has contributed to a shift in the debate from domestic issues to global geopolitical risks. This has allowed the president to rise above the debate and present himself as a world leader. This crisis also brought focus back to the need for greater European unity and France’s important place in its construction.
We have learned not to trust polls when it comes to elections. However, the Ukrainian crisis has led to a complete shift in voting intentions. Zemmour, who is the newcomer, was previously among the leading figures but has now drifted downwards. Macron’s superiority over all the other candidates has been confirmed. He is currently followed by far-right candidate Marine Le Pen, the left’s Jean-Luc Melenchon and in fourth place is Valerie Pecresse, representing the traditional right. The interesting point is how parties generally considered to be far left or far right have taken center stage in French politics, while the center-right and center-left have consolidated under President Macron.
Zemmour has been the novelty factor in this election campaign. Just like UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson, he has a background as a journalist and writer. Until the beginning of the Ukraine crisis, even though he never led the polls, he was leading the agenda of the election. He kept setting the key themes of debate that were of interest to a majority of French citizens. These themes mainly focused on immigration and the role and sovereignty of France. One of the key themes was the difference between assimilation and integration of immigrants. Zemmour positioned his campaign with a push for a return to assimilation, whereby immigrants would have to mold into the values, culture and heritage of what his movement qualifies as historical France. This is in opposition to Macron, who leans more toward integration, meaning France evolves and takes on the heritage of all the immigrants it welcomes.
When listening to all candidates, it is a fact that a crisis of identity has been a key theme. For some candidates, this is directly linked to immigration, while for others it is globalization or the EU that causes this crisis. Yet, when it comes to the French people, there is a general worry about the future: The deterioration of security and the general growing disrespect for sovereign institutions such as the police and the impact of a weakened or inefficient justice system.
It seems that, with the construction of a European identity, it is becoming more difficult to keep national characters intact
Khaled Abou Zahr
For Zemmour, all these issues can be symbolized with a clear comparison with Lebanon. The risk of “Lebanization” has been a recurrent theme. During a March interview with Lea Salame, the successful French journalist of Lebanese heritage, Zemmour clarified his comparison and stated clearly that, if he is not elected, France will become a “big Lebanon.” As Salame requested not to open this topic, he answered: “This is why you are in France and not in Lebanon.”
In the last open meeting in the Trocadero Square in Paris, Marion Marechal — the niece of Le Pen who has joined forces with Zemmour — warned again of the risks of France becoming like Lebanon. Since the crisis in Ukraine has become the priority, Zemmour has been pushing the Lebanon risk even more. A few days ago, he reiterated that, without him as president, France will become a big Lebanon, marked by corruption, misery, Islamization and violence. His argument is that, with Macron, France is giving up on its traditional identity.
In the meantime and as the Ukraine crisis and European energy crisis roar, Macron has positioned himself as a global leader. With his strong engagement with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, discussions with US President Joe Biden and regular phone calls with Russian President Vladimir Putin, Macron has projected an image that goes above the local domestic political debate — and it seems to have had a positive impact on the polls. He is trying to put forward the fact that France is still relevant and has a big role to play. However, one should note that Macron had planned to reduce the country’s reliance on nuclear energy, which is key to France’s independence and placed it in a better situation than Germany. But he changed his position as the Ukraine crisis started. Macron has also pushed to openly welcome Ukrainian refugees.
There is definitely an identity crisis in France, and Europe generally too. It seems that, with the construction of a European identity, it is becoming more difficult to keep national characters intact, with regions becoming more relevant. There is also the fact that, with the transition to clean energy, Europe has been oblivious to the geopolitical risks. And, similar to its attempts to transition to a more social and progressive society, it has been oblivious to what made Europe a leader. Now, with an aging population, France is understanding that it is losing ground and could indeed become a big Lebanon or face the fate of Ukraine. The words of a young Ukrainian refugee symbolizes this best — when asked how she found school in France, her simple answer was: “Math class is much easier here.”
• Khaled Abou Zahr is CEO of Eurabia, a media and tech company. He is also the editor of Al-Watan Al-Arabi.
