Khan-Putin summit in the midst of crisis
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Prime Minister Imran Khan repeatedly stated that Pakistan would maintain cordial relations with all the great powers and distance itself from ‘camp politics.’ However, the trends in contemporary international politics are not encouraging for pursuing a neutral foreign and strategic policy. Therefore, the forthcoming Khan-Putin summit generates a big hullabaloo.
The global geopolitical environment is rapidly changing and converging Russian and Chinese geostrategic interests. The embryonic Russia-China axis versus the US-led NATO or QUAD seemed a reality. The United States’ increasing reliance on India to check rising China is systematically distancing Washington from Islamabad, despite the latter’s endeavor to keep bilateral engagement with the former productive and sustainable.
Pakistan’s unwillingness to play second fiddle to India in South Asian politics necessitates it to act intelligently in engaging the great powers. Indeed, it is not in Islamabad’s interests to annoy Americans and Europeans. Both remain Pakistan’s largest trading partners.
Islamabad is not blindly following and approving Russian and Chinese territorial readjustment and human rights policies. Before the start of Khan’s two-day Russia visit at the invitation of President Vladimir Putin on February 23, Islamabad expressed support for Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity. Indeed, it is a courageous principal stance at the time when Islamabad is rewriting new rules of engagement with Moscow to deepen the multifaceted “bilateral relationship and enhancement of cooperation in diverse fields.”
The timing of Khan’s visit to Russia is critical. He recently toured China and is now planning to visit Moscow. Whereas; the frustration of both Americans and Europeans is multiplying due to Kremlin and Beijing Eurasian domineering geopolitical initiatives.
China’s Belt and Road Initiative and Russia’s assertiveness in Eurasia are taxing the United States’ supremacy in global politics. President Putin’s Ukrainian policy upset President Biden and the NATO leadership. The Americans viewed China-Pakistan Economic Corridor as an unfavorable extension of BRI, and therefore Pakistan is subjected to America’s diplomatic pressures and economic coercion.
The increasing strategic understanding between Moscow and Islamabad will not be appreciated in Washington and Europe, especially when war clouds hover over Ukraine.
Zafar Nawaz Jaspal
Likewise, the increasing strategic understanding between Moscow and Islamabad will not be appreciated in Washington and Europe, especially when war clouds hover over Ukraine. President Vladimir Putin categorically said allowing Ukraine to join NATO would increase the prospects of a Russia-NATO conflict that could turn nuclear. On February 21, Putin recognized the independence of the two Moscow-backed rebel regions— Donetsk and Lugansk in Eastern Ukraine, entailing severe reaction from Europeans and Americans.
Since the end of the Cold War, Islamabad has struggled to improve its partnership with Russia in energy, defense cooperation, and investment. As a result, in 2003, Moscow and Islamabad broadened the scope of engagement by establishing three Joint Working Group, i.e., Joint Working Group on Counter-Terrorism; second, the Joint Working Group on Strategic Stability; and third, Intergovernmental Joint Commission.
Pakistan and Russia signed a defense cooperation agreement in November 2014, which provides for exchange of information on politico-military issues; cooperation for promoting international security; intensification of counter-terrorism and arms control activities; strengthening collaboration in various military fields, including education, medicine, history, topography, hydrography and culture; and sharing experiences in peacekeeping operations.
The Russian MI-17 helicopters currently form the backbone of the Pakistan Army’s logistics/troop lift capability. In addition, Pakistan and China jointly produced a JF17 Thunder fighter jet powered by a Russian engine at the Pakistan Aeronautical Complex Kamra.
Prime Minister Khan cultivated an impressive understanding with President Putin during their interaction at SCO Council of Heads of State in Bishkek on June 14, 2019, and again at the opening ceremony of the 2022 Beijing Olympics, which was diplomatically boycotted by the Americans and their European allies accusing China of human rights violations. Furthermore, on January 17, Khan called President Putin to convey his appreciation for the latter’s categorical statement that freedom of speech could not be a pretext to abuse the Holy Prophet (PBUH).
PM Khan’s primary focus will be the regional security situation and bilateral cooperation in the energy sector during the visit. He will allure Russian investment in Pakistan’s oil and gas sectors and heavy industries. In addition, he will try to finalize the ‘Shareholding and Facilitation Agreements,’ i.e., a $3 billion Pakistan Stream Gas Pipeline Project (PSGP). The project intended to construct a 1,122-km gas pipeline from Karachi to Kasur. The completion of the pipeline will enable the annual transport of 12.3 billion cubic meters of liquefied natural gas from Karachi port to the northern industrial centers of the country.
The resolution of the pending issue of about $200 million of Russian money held by Pakistani banks due to a financial dispute in 2019 created a positive environment for bilateral trade. Moscow and Islamabad need to start direct air connectivity to improve bilateral trade relations and deepen people-to-people contact to further this amiability.
Besides the bilateral trade and economic cooperation’s deliberation, the looming humanitarian crisis entailing anarchy in Afghanistan will be the focus of the Khan-Putin summit. Mutual concerns are the threat of militancy, extremism, and drug trafficking emanating from an unstable Afghanistan. Khan will sensitize his host about the need for urgent action by the international community to prevent a humanitarian crisis and an economic meltdown in Afghanistan.
In summary, Pakistan’s balancing act with the great powers appears increasingly delicate and cumbersome. Nonetheless, it should remain committed to improving bilateral relations with the United States and Russian Federation, while sustaining an upward trajectory in its strategic partnership with China.
- Dr. Zafar Nawaz Jaspal is an Islamabad-based analyst and professor at the School of Politics and International Relations, Quaid-i-Azam University. E-mail: [email protected] Twitter: @zafar_jaspal
