Can Pakistan truly remain neutral in the US-China rivalry?
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Last week, Prime Minister Imran Khan said that Pakistan would not join any one power bloc in the rivalry between China and the US. Indeed, it was a bold statement and a reminder of the ire the country had once invited of the erstwhile Soviet Union, by picking sides in the superpower rivalry of decades ago.
Pakistan sided with the US against the former Soviet Union when the latter invaded Afghanistan in 1979. Undoubtedly, the move helped legitimize the Zia ul Haq military regime, which until then was under severe economic sanctions and political isolation. Besides, Pakistan, which was suffering from acute economic sanctions, became a recipient of US and Western aid as millions of dollars were injected into the economy. For General Zia, it was a Godsend-- it lifted the economy, confirmed the strategic importance of the country and leveraged the regime to counter India’s pressure. Most importantly it legitimized the military takeover and the US was prepared to overlook a harsh dictatorship as long as Pakistan played the critical role of being a willing conduit and a key partner in the logistic and military support of the US.
From PM Khan’s recent policy statement, it is clear that Pakistan will not repeat the mistake of formally or informally becoming a party to any alliance. Whereas this policy makes eminent sense based on our experience, the question arises: Is it possible? Is it feasible to adhere to in light of our limitations?
For example, Pakistan may have cited no specific reason for staying away from the recent global summit organized by the US, but it was primarily a gesture of support for China and Russia as these major powers were deliberately not invited on the grounds that they were not democracies. The gesture was hailed by the Chinese government and the people of Pakistan were reminded by its spokesperson of being “iron brothers.”
It is ironic that many countries invited to the democracy summit had doubtful democratic credentials. An invitation to Taiwan was a deliberate provocation to China. As expected, it provoked a strong response from the Chinese government.
All these major international alliances that are meant to thwart the Chinese rise will be the new normal of international relations.
Talat Masood
Moreover, the US-India partnership to counter China is another factor that makes it difficult for Islamabad to steer away from major power rivalry despite the fact that Pakistan would very much want to maintain close relations with the US. Recently, speaking to visiting US senators, PM Khan said a “deeper and stronger partnership between Pakistan and the United States was mutually beneficial and critical for the region’s peace, security and prosperity.”
Considering that Pakistan is the second most populous Muslim country, is strategically located, is a nuclear power with great potential for trade and investment for US companies, are ample reasons for building a sound longterm relationship. For Pakistani students seeking admission in universities, America still remains an ideal destination. Those students who have studied in the US serve as a useful link and greatly help in building bridges between the two countries.
Ideally, Washington’s close relations with India and Pakistan’s strategic and economic ties with China should not be a barrier in developing a cooperative and functional relationship with the US. The counter argument is, that with the US building a broad consensus against China and Pakistan so dependent on China, it will not be possible for Pakistan to retain much freedom of action in foreign policy and strategic direction.
Moreover, the very object of President Biden’s policy is to weaken China and for that it considers it important to draw away its close strategic partners. Obviously, Pakistan would never go that far. The country owes a lot to China and truly considers it a dependable ally, and at no cost will it change course. However, it is willing to cooperate in multiple areas with the US, where there is commonality of interest. There have been several occasions in the past when the US has disapproved of Pakistan’s policies and sanctioned it with serious consequences to its economy. For all these reasons, there is a guarded optimism in dealings with the US.
There are other developments in the shape of strategic alignments and military build-up that are sharpening the US-China conflict and leaving less space for countries desirous of staying away from these rivalries. Recently, Australia, the US and UK have entered into a new trilateral security alliance, including a joint effort to help the Australian military acquire nuclear-powered submarines in an apparent attempt to counter China’s increasing military capabilities. In fact, this alliance is a clear manifestation of Washington’s efforts to counter China’s rising influence in the region.
As expected, China has reacted sharply and this will have an adverse effect on its relations with Australia. It remains to be seen how trade with China will be impacted. Clearly, all these major international alliances that are meant to thwart the Chinese rise will be the new normal of international relations.
*Talat Masood is a retired Lieutenant General from Pakistan Army and an eminent scholar on national security and political issues.
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