Pakistan’s role in China-GCC developments
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International affairs, post the Cold War, have been in a state of flux. What seemed to be a long lasting unipolar world three decades ago was notionally replaced by the expectation of a multipolar order. And now an economically galloping China has rekindled the possibility of a return to the bipolar arrangement. Ideological moorings of yesteryears have been substituted by pragmatism. Geoeconomic interests have overtaken geopolitical ones. The 21st century looks to be an Asian Century and China is fast emerging as its leader. This appears highly probable in a world of glorious uncertainties.
Since 2015, China has been the largest importer of energy resources in the world. China imports roughly 30% of its oil from the GCC countries. Conversely, the US dependence on Gulf energy resources has been declining since shale gas became available as a viable substitute. It was during the Obama administration that the US decided to pivot to the far east rather than focusing on other regions. China, which established diplomatic relations with most GCC nations soon after the end of the Cold War, anticipated the void. Today it is the foremost trading partner of most Arabian Gulf nations. Earlier this year, it also concluded a long term strategic trade and investments agreement with Iran.
Keeping good relations with regional powers on both sides of the Arabian Gulf will be a challenge that China will have to face. India too has large investments from the GCC states and exports manpower there. It has developed a certain clout in the region by simultaneously maintaining robust trade relations with Arab countries and political ties with Tehran. Will a growing Chinese presence in the region make it a competitor of India’s? Oil and the security of Israel have been the foremost concerns of the United States and its transatlantic allies in this region. The Arab Spring has neutralized and weakened some Arab leaders that used to stand up to Israel, but a changed threat perception does not mean a total western exit from the Gulf. The Middle East, located at the convergence of Asia, Africa and Europe is still vital to international economic activity through the export of energy resources and the location of its strategic sea lanes.
Pakistan views the growing cooperation between China and GCC member states positively as it augers well for regional security and stability.
Javed Hafeez
China-GCC trade stood at $180 billion in 2019 and China replaced the European Union as the top trading partner of Gulf Arab countries. Chinese priority is economic and trade related based on positive neutrality. China supports the revival of the nuclear deal with Iran while the GCC nations have their reservations. China will endeavor to be a good friend to both sides simultaneously. This augers well for regional peace and stability.
Pakistan views the growing cooperation between China and GCC member states positively as it augers well for regional security and stability. The China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) is the flagship project of China’s Belt and Road mega international endeavor. GCC countries will be able to expand their trade with China through CPEC and some of them have shown keen interest in investing in CPEC related projects. I can visualize GCC energy resources flowing to the Chinese province of Xinjiang through pipelines via Pakistan, in the not too distant future. It would be a win-win scenario for China, GCC countries and Pakistan.
The US government has recently objected to what it calls a ‘military installation’ being erected by China at a UAE port. The UAE government has denied knowledge of any such project. It is abundantly clear that the US and China are competing for influence around the globe. China has eschewed any military ambitions abroad, so far. But whether it will continue with that policy while its economic interests grow globally, remains to be seen. After all, the first Chinese military facility abroad, in Djibouti, was a departure from a well-established Chinese policy of no military presence abroad.
Trade promotes peace and cultural interaction. History is witness to Sino-Arab trade relations more than a millennium ago. The revival of the Silk Route, in its modern form, would be a repetition of that vital link. And Pakistan will play the role of a catalyst in that major development.
– Javed Hafeez is a former Pakistani diplomat with much experience of the Middle East. He writes weekly columns in Pakistani and Gulf newspapers and appears regularly on satellite TV channels as a defense and political analyst.
Twitter: @JavedHafiz8
