The devils in the details
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You can see the moment that Ali Mustafa’s eyes widen as he realizes he has a scoop on his hands. The interview had been proceeding in a fairly routine manner, with Prime Minister Imran Khan saying all the right things about Afghanistan and quite smartly including the US President in the list of those ‘unfairly’ scapegoated for the debacle of the US withdrawal. Then the conversation switched to the question of whether the Taliban victory in Afghanistan would embolden militant groups in Pakistan. After correctly pointing out that the situation in Pakistan was not exactly comparable to that of Afghanistan, the PM very casually mentioned that some groups of the ‘Pakistani Taliban’ wanted to talk to the government to achieve some kind of reconciliation, following it up with the revelation that these talks were being held in Afghanistan.
As if to confirm what he has just heard, Mustafa repeats the statement only to receive more affirmation, this time with the rider that these groups would then be forgiven and allowed to become ‘normal citizens’, followed by the PM repeating his oft-stated belief that there was no military solution to such problems. At this point, he also mentioned that similar talks were underway with Baloch rebel groups.
Let us for now leave aside the question of whether something as monumental as this should be casually mentioned in an interview and focus on separating the principle from the practical.
While in principle it is always better to seek a political solution as opposed to a military one, the fact remains that no previous political agreement with the militant groups that plague Pakistan has really resulted in a positive long-term outcome.
At the same time, we must acknowledge that what is being discussed now is certainly not comparable to the deals of the past, when the TTP were a formidable force that actually held territory.
Zarrar Khuhro
We can start with the 2004 Shakai accord with Nek Muhammad, which came after an unsuccessful military operation. The agreement, hailed as a bold step toward peace, soon fell apart with Nek Muhammad reneging on his commitments and resumed assassinating tribal leaders before dying in a drone strike in June of the same year. If anything, the agreement had only added to his stature, and by extension, the stature of similar militant leaders.
The same happened in the case of Baitullah Mehsud, with whom the Sararogha agreement of 2005 was signed, and which promised Baitullah immunity from being targeted by the Pakistani state. Again, this may have prevented the state from declaring war on him, but it certainly did not prevent him from declaring war on the state. And with each such accord, the menace multiplied.
Then of course, there is the nightmare of Swat under the late, unlamented Mullah Fazlullah. This debacle began with the Taliban asserting control over large areas of Swat, leading the government to seek a political solution by releasing Sufi Muhammad, Fazlullah’s father-in-law and leader of the Tehrik-e-Nifaz-e-Shariat-e-Muhammadi (TNSM). The negotiations resulted in a temporary cease-fire which eventually led to the ignominious capitulation of the state in the form of the Nizam-e-adl Act in April 2009 which in effect legitimized the Taliban takeover, perhaps in the hope that, having taken a limb, the militants would leave the rest of the body alone.
Unsurprisingly, it didn’t work and so a military operation had to be launched to dislodge the militants, with all the blood and tears that such operations entail. The point to be noted here is that the Taliban did not quit Swat in response to a unanimous resolution in parliament or a strongly worded demarche. Nor were TTP bases in the former tribal areas vacated in response to a trending hashtag on Twitter. They had to be militarily defeated at huge cost.
At the same time, we must acknowledge that what is being discussed now is certainly not comparable to the deals of the past, when the TTP were a formidable force that actually held territory. Today, while the TTP have indeed reunited and regrouped following the ascendance of XYZ and have launched a spate of attacks targeting security forces, they are not (yet) the existential threat they once were. The devil of any such agreement, of course, lies in the details of the agreement and beyond what the PM said we have no real details. We do not know which groups of the TTP are being or have been approached and who of these have agreed to talks. We also do not know what the terms and conditions of any such ‘reconciliation’ will be. Will amnesty – if such is being considered – be for the rank and file, or for the masterminds who have the blood of countless Pakistanis, civilians and soldiers alike, on their hands? There is no doubt that even when the fighting was at its peak, there were still contacts and dialogue ongoing; this should come as no surprise as talk and war can and do proceed simultaneously. Over the years these dealings have been conducted out of the public view and have indeed resulted in the surrender of foot soldiers, and sometimes in the neutrality of militant commanders.
On that note, it was a negotiation that led to the surrender of Ehsanullah Ehsan, but that story didn’t quite end there as Ehsanullah then ‘escaped’ and is now a regular fixture in TV and print interviews and, most recently, on Twitter. If this is the template, then we should be very worried indeed.
For its part, the TTP have announced that they reject any such compromise (no surprise) and one must also note that Hafiz Gul Bahadur, the militant commander who subsequently announced a cease-fire, is not a member of the TTP and is known for having dubious loyalties at best.
Any talk of negotiations with the very militants who are responsible for the deaths of thousands of Pakistanis is not something to take lightly. It is an issue that needs deep and broad-based discussion with a clear view of what the eventual aim of such a dialogue is. And it is certainly not something to simply be casually mentioned in an interview.
- Zarrar Khuhro is a Pakistani journalist who has worked extensively in both the print and electronic media industry. He is currently hosting a talk show on Dawn News. Twitter: @ZarrarKhuhro
