A state of flux in UK politics
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England’s third by-election in as many months took place last week, with another surprise result in a nation where politics have shown unprecedented volatility after a series of shocks from the 2016 Brexit referendum to the aftermath of the 2008-09 financial crisis.
The ruling Conservatives had been favorites to capture the Batley and Spen seat in Northern England, but Labour held on after an ugly campaign in which police protection was required for their candidate, Kim Leadbetter — whose sister Jo Cox, the former MP for the constituency, was murdered by a far-right fanatic during the Brexit referendum campaign five years ago.
Despite the Tory failure to take the seat, there is no question that UK politics is in flux. Not only have the Conservatives won a number of previous longstanding Labour strongholds in the north of England and Midlands, including the Hartlepool by-election in May, there are also signs that the Liberal Democrats are making headway in a number of traditional Conservative seats in the South of England, after they won the Chesham and Amersham by-election last month.
This flux is no better documented than in data from the British Election Study (BES), perhaps the most authoritative survey of UK voting behavior, which indicates how traditional partisan voting patterns are eroding. In general elections since 2015, more people changed their vote than ever before in the postwar era.
A key reason is the erosion of the classic left-right dichotomy in distinguishing Conservative from Labour voters. Indeed, BES asserts that, for the first time in modern UK history, issues such as immigration and the EU are at least as important in determining overall voting behaviour as traditional right-left party allegiances.
In 2017, there was the highest level of switching between the Conservatives and Labour since the BES started its research in 1964. This phenomenon was driven by Brexit, with Labour winning the support of 31 percent of previous Tory voters because of its more pro-EU stance, and the Conservatives winning the loyalties of significant numbers of pro-Leave former Labour supporters, many in the Midlands and northern England.
The strong position of Conservatives in England may yet be undermined by opposition parties including the Liberal Democrats.
Andrew Hammond
Further significant decay of the traditional two-party postwar system is injecting more volatility into the political landscape. This was shown in Chesham and Amersham last month, with the shock Liberal Democrat victory in a seat previously held only by Conservatives.
For much of the postwar period, UK politics has been dominated by the Conservatives and Labour. From 1945 to 1970, these two parties collectively averaged in excess of 90 percent of votes cast and seats won in eight general elections. But in the nine general elections from 1974 to 2005, their share of the vote fell significantly.
It is the Liberals who have probably done most to break the hold of the two major parties, but other parties have come to prominence too, including the Scottish National Party (SNP) which governs in the Edinburgh parliament; the Greens; and the parties formerly led by arch-Euroskeptic Nigel Farage, the UK Independence Party and the Brexit Party, whose strength is greatest in England.
One reason that a further significant decline in the two-party system could make for a more unpredictable outlook for British politics is that it is harder for any one organization to secure a parliamentary majority, as was shown in 2010 and 2017, despite a first-past-the-post voting system that tends to provide the leading party a significantly larger number of seats in the House of Commons than would be given by a more proportionate electoral system.
To be sure, coalitions and the sharing of power have long been a feature of UK local government and devolved parliaments and assemblies outside of Westminster. However, this same dynamic may now also be permeating the heart of the UK government itself in London.
Until 2010, when the Liberal Democrats and the Conservatives formed a coalition government, Labour and the Conservatives had won overall majorities at every election since 1945, other than a brief exception between February and October 1974.
The bottom line is that Boris Johnson’s perceived dominance of English and sometimes wider UK politics masks significant flux. Not only are Labour the main party in Wales, and the SNP in Scotland, but the strong position of Conservatives in England may yet be undermined by opposition parties including the Liberal Democrats.
- Andrew Hammond is an Associate at LSE IDEAS at the London School of Economics
