‘Hands-off:’ Pakistan’s new Afghanistan policy
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Afghanistan is occupying Pakistan’s mind heavily these days. A sense of trepidation and foreboding prevails on what the next few months will bring as the US withdraws and the Taliban run roughshod over preferred international plans that hold no guarantees for peace.
Both Prime Minister Imran Khan and Foreign Minister Shah Mahmood Qureshi have dilated at length in interviews in quick succession to foreign media about the dramatic developments next door in Afghanistan and how these will impact Pakistan. Something is surely changing, and it seems it is the traditional and impulsive approach to Afghanistan.
A general sense of unease about the Afghan situation has been conveyed by both gentlemen but was more pronounced in its articulation by Qureshi who seemed to signal that Islamabad preferred to remain at some distance in terms of influencing events in Kabul and beyond.
“Unfortunately, when things aren't moving in the right direction, [Afghanistan is] looking for scapegoats and the favorite scapegoat is Pakistan. When there’s failure you blame us. Pakistan is not responsible for the failure in Afghanistan, for the squabbling there, if the Afghan leadership can’t sit and work out a peace deal,” he grumbled in a rare interview to Afghan media, Tolo News.
This is in direct contrast to the usual sense of influence in Afghanistan that Islamabad has been claiming to the international community, not just in the backdrop of the relatively improved bilateral ties with Kabul but especially in terms of the Taliban and thereby traditionally insisting on the largest stakeholding in the political transition next door.
This is also interesting because the mutuality of their interests in Afghanistan are a key barometer of the health of the Pakistan-America bilateral relationship. This has experienced as many crests and knaves as the health of political fortunes in the landlocked conflicted Afghan territory over the past few decades. Islamabad seems to be risking its ties with Washington on redefining the stakes in Kabul.
Without saying as much, both Qureshi and Khan seemed to be signaling a more nuanced Islamabad policy for Afghanistan that seemed to be premised on rationalizing international expectations about its influence on either Kabul or the Taliban.
Adnan Rehmat
While playing down perceptions of its influence on the Taliban, who have marked an uptick in violence and attacks on security forces and seem to be boosted by the prospect of complete American withdrawal, Qureshi sought to soothe nerves by declaring that Islamabad did not support any violent takeover of Kabul by anyone. Qureshi was backed by Prime Minister Khan within two days in an interview with American HBO documentary media.
“Absolutely not!” said Khan when asked if Pakistan would accede to a request by Washington to allow use of an air base to conduct “counterterrorism” surveillance of next-door Afghanistan. “My government will never provide military bases to the US for Afghan operations, nor allow drone attacks inside Pakistan [on any backers of violence in Afghanistan] as in the past,” he added.
Without saying as much, both Qureshi and Khan seemed to be signalling a more nuanced Islamabad policy for Afghanistan that seemed to be premised on rationalizing international expectations about its influence on either Kabul or the Taliban. They also seemed to convey the newly decided reluctance of Islamabad to overtly pick sides from among the local key power players in a post-Washington Afghanistan as a means of minimizing the fallout on Pakistan of the possible unravelling of peace plans.
This “hands-off” approach to a coercive political intervention is new for Pakistan even when it offers the temptation to exercise it when it comes to a change of guard in Afghanistan. The last time a major transition happened in Afghanistan after the withdrawal of Soviet Union and the collapse of the Mujahideen government in the late 1990’s, Pakistan had sided with the Taliban, becoming one of the only three countries in the world to recognize their government.
A few years later, in the immediate aftermath of 9/11, Pakistan switched sides again and backed the American military intervention resulting in a horrific spillover of Afghan related violence in Pakistan that killed over 85,000 in the decade following the American invasion. With American withdrawal now rejuvenating the Taliban into use of force to raise its stakes, Pakistan is no longer interested in a local military solution that seems inevitable in Afghanistan.
Asked whether he was “happy” about the US withdrawal from Afghanistan, the Pakistani premier said: “Happy in one way because there was never going to be a military solution in Afghanistan…but also anxious [as] without a political settlement there is possibility of a civil war.” He added that for Pakistan a political settlement means “a coalition government between the Taliban and the Afghan leadership…. there is no other solution.”
From an impulsive high-stakes political and security intervention to tentative neutrality – this seems to be Pakistan’s new Afghanistan policy. This is more of a “wait-and-see-what-happens” than a “let’s-go-in-and-pick-clear-favorites” approach. This is new territory for Pakistan so it is treading carefully.
*Adnan Rehmat is a Pakistan-based journalist, researcher and analyst with interests in politics, media, development and science.
Twitter: @adnanrehmat1
