How Iran has outmaneuvered America … yet again
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The philosopher George Santayana famously wrote: “Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.” And now that the Biden administration has declared it is prepared to lift sanctions on the Islamic Republic in order to revive the Iran nuclear deal, aka the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), history appears to be repeating itself. The repercussions and negative consequences will probably be the same as they were after the agreement was first struck.
In 2015, the Iranian regime received an extremely favorable deal from the P5+1 (the UK, France, China, Russia and the US, plus Germany). All four rounds of UN sanctions on the theocratic establishment, which took decades and a significant amount of political capital to put in place, were lifted on day one of the nuclear deal. This move by the Obama administration, which led the negotiations, was a result of failed diplomacy and was politically and strategically dangerous. This is partially because if Iran one day decided to breach the terms of the nuclear deal, it would be extremely difficult to again find consensus in the UN Security Council, specifically because of the presence of China and Russia, on reimposing sanctions on Tehran.
This scenario occurred last year, when the International Atomic Energy Agency announced that Iran was violating all restrictions of the nuclear pact. But the US found itself in an extremely difficult situation, as it could not get the backing of Russia and China, or even the consent of the EU3 (France, the UK and Germany), to reimpose sanctions on Tehran.
In addition to the pitfall of lifting UN sanctions at the beginning of the deal, several other mistakes were made. And it appears likely they will be repeated this time around by the Biden administration.
The US seems to want to keep the sunset clauses, which were one of the most controversial elements of the JCPOA and were strongly opposed by the Trump administration and other critics of the deal. These are the expiration dates that mean the nuclear deal’s restrictions will be lifted on a specified date. For instance, in 2025, limits on advanced centrifuges would expire, allowing Tehran to have as many of these as it needs for its nuclear research and development.
Iran’s nuclear program, which was revived by the ruling mullahs in the 1990s, has been filled with fraud, violations and mistrust.
Dr. Majid Rafizadeh
Such provisions are still in place in the deal as it stands and they are extremely dangerous for several reasons. As soon as the sunset clauses kick in, the UN Security Council is essentially granting the Iranian regime a powerful legal platform to pursue many nuclear activities, which it was banned from pursuing in the past, with no supervision or inspections. And this process is irreversible. The international community will lose its leverage to hold the Iranian regime responsible. Can Tehran be really trusted to not abuse such power? Can the Iranian regime be trusted that it will pursue nuclear activities solely for civilian purposes rather than for building a nuclear weapon?
Any astute observer of Iran’s politics knows that Iran’s nuclear program, which was revived by the ruling mullahs in the 1990s, has been filled with fraud, violations and mistrust. Whenever the international community overlooked or failed to detect Iran’s nuclear activities, Tehran secretly violated the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons. Whenever the Iranian regime had the chance, it built clandestine sites to pursue its nuclear ambitions.
Finally, although the Biden administration claims that it wants to counter Iran’s destabilizing behavior in the region, its policy toward Tehran says otherwise. President Biden must remember that Barack Obama said he was “confident” the nuclear deal would “meet the national security needs of the US and our allies.”' By this measure alone, it demonstrably failed. The JCPOA is fundamentally flawed. The composition of the negotiating team, both then and now, has completely excluded those on Iran’s doorstep in an approach reminiscent of a bygone colonial era.
Once again, Iran’s funding of violent proxies such as Hezbollah and the Houthis is apparently being entirely overlooked. This would not happen if the Gulf states or Israel were at the negotiating table. The Biden administration must recall that the JCPOA freed up extra funds that flowed to these groups in ever greater amounts. And what was the outcome? A greater propensity for Houthi rocket launches at civilian targets in Saudi Arabia and the deployment of thousands of Hezbollah foot soldiers in Syria.
The Biden administration’s willingness to lift sanctions on the Iranian regime shows that Tehran is outplaying the US once again.
• Dr. Majid Rafizadeh is a Harvard-educated Iranian-American political scientist. Twitter: @Dr_Rafizadeh
