A not so cunning plan
https://arab.news/8j8vx
The legendary Chinese general Sun Tzu would have been a huge hit on Twitter. His pithy one-liners and sayings - achieving as they do the rare alchemy of expertly mixing brevity with insight - would be guaranteed to go viral. And if Sun Tzu were a talk show host, his ratings would go through the roof since his words can be applied to almost all situations, ranging from war to business and politics, and nowhere are they more applicable than in Pakistan where the three often combine into one.
Let’s take this saying, for example: ‘Strategy without tactics is the slowest route to victory; tactics without strategy is the noise before defeat,’ and see how that applies to the increasingly rickety alliance that is the opposition alliance, the Pakistan Democratic Movement.
In the last meeting of the PDM, some serious tactical differences came into the open, with nine of the ten constituent parties proposing that the alliance resign from parliament before starting a long march to the capital. The Pakistan Peoples Party, led by Asif Ali Zardari, was taken aback by this demand given that the party had from the outset viewed this as a nuclear option - one to be chosen as a last resort only, if at all. The PPP, in its own words, prefers the route of fighting for space within the system.
Zardari’s barbed response widened this already existing fissure, leading to a sullen Maulana Fazlur Rehman cutting short his press conference, and Maryam Nawaz Sharif taking to subtweeting. Naturally, this led to a frenzy of speculation in the media with obituaries for the PDM being read out in almost every talk show. But it is unwise to fully write off anyone in Pakistan’s political scene. Plus coalition politics are tricky at the best of times, and prone to fractures that may later be papered over.
With that disclaimer out of the way, let’s see what Sun Tzu may have thought of the resignation road as a tactic intended to achieve the strategic objective of unseating the government. The combined opposition holds 45% of the seats in the national and provincial assemblies and were to resign en masse, even then, there is no constitutional requirement for a new general election to be announced. The most that could happen, then, is that by-elections would be held on the vacated seats which the combined opposition would re-contest.
Street agitation is a tool and a tactic to be employed along with other tools and tactics in order to achieve a strategic goal. ‘Perpetual crisis’ is not, and cannot be, an end in itself - unless of course what you really want is to end your own movement, in which case it’s the perfect plan.
Zarrar Khuhro
Now this is interesting, as the seats the opposition candidates will be contesting in such a by-election would be the very same seats they had resigned from and so, in a best-case scenario, they would manage to achieve their former parliamentary strength, and in a less-than-best-case scenario may end up with a smaller tally. This then begs the questions: what’s the point? What then? What is the worst-case scenario?
Certainly, the PPP has complained that when they ask these questions, they get no answer. Well, the PPP is wrong as none other than Ahsan Iqbal addressed all this. They very much have a plan, and it goes like this: First, they resign. Then there are by-elections which they will presumably win. Then they resign again. Then there will be another round of by-elections which they will again (presumably) win, after which they would resign. Again. And again. And again. And that, in Ahsan Iqbal’s own words, would create a ‘perpetual crisis,’ causing a constant ‘drama in the country’.
But unlike the musing of Tzu, this approach is neither strategy nor tactics; it’s a Monty Python skit planned without a hint of irony. This is a plan even Baldrick from Blackadder would be ashamed to own. Yet there we are, drinking at this fountain of political wisdom and wondering why it won’t slake our thirst. I mean it’s almost enough to make you sympathize with Zardari.
Speaking of whom, whose strategy was it that truly discomfited the government? If we honestly analyze the agitation route, then we must also ask exactly how uncomfortable the various public rallies held by the PDM made the government. Certainly, there was a rise in rhetoric from the government, but there were no real signs of panic. On the other hand, it was the victory of Yousuf Raza Gillani in the senate elections — the in-system strategy favored by Zardari — that made the government go for a parliamentary confidence vote. This is not to say that street agitation is an ineffective tool, but it is just that: a tool and a tactic to be employed along with other tools and tactics in order to achieve a strategic goal. ‘Perpetual crisis’ is not, and cannot be, an end in itself - unless of course what you really want is to end your own movement, in which case it’s the perfect plan.
– Zarrar Khuhro is a Pakistani journalist who has worked extensively in both the print and electronic media industry. He is currently hosting a talk show on Dawn News.
Twitter: @ZarrarKhuhro
