Maintaining the dividend promise of $75bn is a smart move for Saudi Aramco
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Resilient, dependable and forward-looking is what comes to mind when looking at Saudi Aramco’s full year results for 2020.
The world’s largest oil company, and its second largest company by market cap after Apple, emerged well from what was the industry’s most challenging year.
Overall, oil demand fell by close to 10 percent in 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic. In April, we saw a decline of around 30 percent – something that never happened before.
In mid-April, WTI turned negative for a day and it took until Feb. 2021 for Brent to hit the $60 mark again.
In the face of such adversity, it is a real achievement to have a net income of $49 billion, which only constitutes a drop of 44 percent compared to 2019 – especially as, on top of the deteriorating price levels, production and exports were severely restricted by the cuts imposed by OPEC+. At this point they amount to around 6.8 million barrels per day by the grouping as a whole. Saudi Arabia has currently offered an additional voluntary cut of 1 million bpd.
It is particularly noteworthy that the company is living up to its promise of paying a dividend worth $75 billion - as promised during the IPO process.
While free cash flow does currently not cover the entire dividend, honoring its promise is a smart move, proving that the company is as good as its word and lives up to its commitments.
It is true that gearing rose from minus 4.9 percent in the first quarter of 2020 to 21.8 percent in the third quarter. This is not a problem, because the company’s debt capacity is extraordinarily high. Most of the debt went toward paying for the acquisition of its majority stake in SABIC.
Aramco’s debt levels remain very low compared to its peer group. Adhering to the “dividend promise” is very much a question of honoring one’s commitment.
Like all oil majors, Aramco lowered its capex to $27 billion in 2020, down $6 billion from 2019.
This is again a moderate decrease in capital expenditure compared to the company’s global peer group. Capex guidance for 2021 stands at $35 billion, which is higher than the actual numbers in 2020, but below previous forecasts of $40 billion - $45 billion.
Aramco CEO Amin Nasser said he expected global oil demand to increase to 99 million bpd by the end of the year. Asia is particularly important as China has already exceeded pre-pandemic levels and India is approaching them.
Aramco was the biggest oil exporter to China in 2020 and Nasser vowed that energy security for the Middle Kingdom had a high priority.
Similarly, Aramco went ahead with its drive to reduce carbon emissions and improve environmental compliance, as evidenced by the company’s collaboration with China on blue hydrogen and ammonia, synthetic fuels as well as CCUS (carbon capture, utilisation and storage).
In other words, Aramco continued its course despite the adverse conditions of 2020, lived up to its promise on dividend, continuously improved operational excellence, ensured its presence in the growing Asian markets, and continues to improve its overall environmental track record.
In three words: resilient, dependable and forward-looking!
• Cornelia Meyer is a Ph.D.-level economist with 30 years of experience in investment banking and industry. She is chairperson and CEO of business consultancy Meyer Resources. Twitter: @MeyerResources
