Can the new US peace plan work for Afghanistan?
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As the May 1 deadline for the withdrawal of all foreign forces from Afghanistan closes in, the new US administration has floated a peace plan to accelerate the stalled negotiations between the Taliban and the Afghan government. The proposed draft lays out an ambitious roadmap for the future political setup in the war-battered country as Washington reviews its exit plan.
While the full review of the Afghan policy is still awaited, the Biden administration has proposed some measures to move forward. It envisions a phased plan for the reduction of violence followed by a permanent cease-fire between the warring Afghan sides.
While pushing for an inclusive interim “peace government,” the US has also called for a unified approach from regional countries to support the peace process in Afghanistan, though there is a big question mark over the viability of the plan.
Given the complexity of the situation, it will not be easy for Washington to get the Afghan government, headed by President Ashraf Ghani, and the Taliban agree on the proposed peace draft. There is strong resistance from both sides to the proposal of an interim inclusive administration. Cease-fire also remains a thorny issue, with the Taliban refusing to lay down arms until a political settlement is achieved.
A strongly worded letter from US Secretary of State Antony Blinken to President Ghani reflected Washington’s growing frustration over the stalled intra-Afghan talks and increasing violence in the country. Blinken warned the Afghan president of the gravity of the situation, as talks in Doha appear to be going nowhere.
While no reason has been given for shifting the venue of the intra-Afghan talks to Turkey, the move seems highly significant. Turkey appears to be more acceptable to the Afghan government and other factions. Besides, the involvement of the UN in the negotiation process will certainly help accelerate it
Zahid Hussain
The US state secretary also exhorted various Afghan ruling factions to work collectively for the peace talks to succeed. The tough tenor of the letter indicates Washington’s frustration over Ghani’s inflexibility and his failure to provide effective leadership. It is apparent that the Biden administration sees Ghani’s rigid approach as a major impediment in moving forward. The uncompromising attitude of the Afghan president toward an inclusive interim government is a major point of contention.
Blinken’s letter was followed by an eight-page US document that was shared with the Afghan government as well the Taliban. The peace plan seeks to establish a national administration with no parallel government or security force.
It promises to protect the Islamic values of the country. While the judiciary will be independent and have the ultimate authority, the High Council for Islamic Jurisprudence would play an advisory role to it. The proposals also include guaranteed rights for women along with religious and ethnic minorities. Besides, it upholds freedom of the press.
With the intra-Afghan talks going nowhere in Doha, the Biden administration has suggested to shift the venue. It has asked Turkey to host a meeting of senior Afghan officials and Taliban leaders that will be organized by the United Nations. The two Afghan warring sides began negotiating in Doha last September, but they have even failed to agree on a framework for a structured dialogue during the six-month period.
Doha hosts the Taliban office and many members of the insurgent group reside there. It was also the venue of the 18-month-long negotiations between the US and Taliban which helped them reach a peace deal last February and raised hope for an end to the two-decade-long war in Afghanistan.
While no reason has been given for shifting of the venue of the intra-Afghan talks to Turkey, the move seems highly significant. Turkey appears to be more acceptable to the Afghan government and other factions. The involvement of the UN in the negotiation process will certainly help accelerate it.
Meanwhile, Washington also wants the UN to convene a meeting of foreign ministers and envoys from Russia, China, Pakistan, Iran, India and the US in Turkey. All these countries have high stakes in the peace process and an agreement among them on a joint approach is imperative to make any future political settlement work.
So far, there has not been any formal response from the Ghani administration and the Taliban on the US peace plan. While the Afghan government is opposed to an interim setup, some other Afghan leaders, including the country’s former president Hamid Karzai, have welcomed the proposal. It is indeed a daunting challenge for the Biden administration to get its peace plan implemented before the May 1 deadline to ensure the final withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan. The American exit plan is also threatened by escalation of violence in the country.
Any delay in the troop withdrawal plan, however, is likely to have serious implications. It is still a long way to peace in the war-torn country. The role of the regional states in ending the conflict is also extremely critical.
*Zahid Hussain is an award-winning journalist and author. He is a former scholar at Woodrow Wilson International Centre for Scholar, USA, and a visiting fellow at Wolfson College, University of Cambridge, and at the Stimson Center in Washington DC. He is author of Frontline Pakistan: The struggle with militant Islam (Columbia university press) and The Scorpion’s tail: The relentless rise of Islamic militants in Pakistan (Simon and Schuster, NY). Frontline Pakistan was the book of the year (2007) by the WSJ.
Twitter: @hidhussain
