Prospects of Pakistan-India normalization in wake of LOC ceasefire
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The Joint Statement by Director-Generals Military Operations of Pakistan and India reaffirming intent to respect the ceasefire on the LOC in Jammu and Kashmir issued on Feb. 25 is a welcome development. It has given rise to an expectation of a full spectrum re-engagement between the two countries for across-the-board reduction of tensions and initiation of processes for resolution of differences and disputes.
Besides implementing the LOC ceasefire understanding of 2003, it covers other military-to-military confidence building measures such as the establishment of a hotline between the military operations director generals, advance notification of military exercises, prevention of air space violations and landing of military aircraft, and a general affirmation to address each other’s core concerns.
A basic and essential first step has been taken by the military institutions. This will alleviate the sufferings of Kashmiris living on both sides of the LOC, who were affected by numerous cross-border firing incidents. The key significance in this instance is that the military institutions are in the lead, of course with the support and concurrence of civilian leadership.
Pakistan’s Chief of Army Staff Gen. Qamar Javed Bajwa has been advocating the need for turning a page in Pakistan-India relations. Not long ago, Gen. Bajwa spoke of Pakistan’s readiness to extend a hand of friendship in "all directions," — a pointed though oblique message to India. Prime Minister Imran Khan has said that if India were to take one step, Pakistan would take two to improve relations.
While Pakistan is prepared to work for a full normalization of relations, including trade, India must create an enabling environment, which entails cessation of its repression of Kashmiris, respect for their rights, rolling back the dissolution of Jammu and Kashmir state and an end to efforts to change the region's demography.
The ball is in India’s court. It is for Prime Minister Narendra Modi to show statesmanship and reverse the Aug. 5, 2019 measures pertaining to Jammu and Kashmir. He must rise above RSS-driven local communal politics and stand up and be rated as a true leader interested in stability and peace of this region. But Modi is no idealist and pragmatic politics has driven him to indulge in vote-getting exercises by playing up to the tunes of Hindu nationalist bravado.
Salman Bashir
There is no doubt that India has lost Kashmir irrevocably by its unimaginative and coercive steps against the Kashmiris, which have elicited genocide warnings at the global plane. For Pakistan and the Kashmiris there can be no compromise on these essential steps by India to work a way forward for peace in this region.
The ball is in India’s court. It is for Prime Minister Narendra Modi to show statesmanship and reverse the Aug. 5, 2019 measures pertaining to Jammu and Kashmir. He must rise above RSS-driven local communal politics and stand up and be rated as a true leader interested in stability and peace of this region. But Modi is no idealist and pragmatic politics has driven him to indulge in vote-getting exercises by playing up to the tunes of Hindu nationalist bravado.
This has cost India its global stature as a secular democracy, excessively strained relations with China and upset smaller neighbors. India’s dreams of regional dominance have been shattered to pieces. The cost of wrong choices, particularly at the strategic level, are huge and historically consequential. From Islamabad it appears that India is embarked on a course that will first and foremost be detrimental to its own national interests.
Strategic, political and economic trends within the region and globally would definitely require and impel a re-think. It is not yet clear whether this realization has dawned in New Delhi or not. Otherwise, the LOC ceasefire may prove to be a temporary expedient to allay fears of a two-front threat that Indian strategists talk about, emanating from China and Pakistan.
In Islamabad, there is skepticism about prospects of full-scale engagement with India at the diplomatic and political levels. No one in Pakistan can think of doing any deal with India over the heads of Kashmiris. And Pakistan cannot be isolated, as India had wanted and declared. What has happened is to the contrary. India has to accept the reality of Pakistan and explicitly agree to peacefully resolve the Jammu and Kashmir dispute.
The RSS Chief Manmohan Bhagat’s repeated remarks about creating Akhand Baharat, or Greater India, incorporating the territories of Pakistan and Afghanistan are mischievous, dangerous and completely disconnected from the existing realities. It is for Prime Minister Modi to distance himself from such ideological rhetoric and visibly demonstrate his intention to pursue peace and cooperation with Pakistan, including a peaceful settlement of the Jammu and Kashmir dispute, in accordance with Kashmiri aspirations.
In fact, India has no other viable choice: either it contends with Pakistan and China in one reinforced front or joins an unfolding regional cooperation enterprise signified by steps for connectivity, trade, technological progress and resulting in prosperity, development, stability and peace. The question is then one of political will. The consequences of a wrong choice would be disastrous.
*Salman Bashir is a Pakistani diplomat who served as Foreign Secretary of Pakistan and as High Commissioner of Pakistan to India.
Twitter: @Salman_B_PK
