Security to top Merkel successor’s list of concerns
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As Chancellor Angela Merkel prepares to leave office in September after nearly two decades in power, approval of her leadership of Germany has never been higher. The inexperienced and supposedly uncharismatic Merkel was not short of detractors as she took the top job in 2005. Today, however, only a few leaders can boast of a track record that can match hers.
Few would have predicted that the unassuming East German pastor’s daughter would go on to work with five British prime ministers, four French presidents, seven Italian prime ministers and four American presidents. Aside from the global health emergency brought on by the coronavirus pandemic, Merkel’s 16 years have seen Germany experience nothing short of a golden era of economic prosperity and increasing clout on the world stage — a reality that her successor will be only too keen to prolong.
No other chancellor except Helmut Kohl, the “Chancellor of German Unity,” has stayed at the helm for as long as Merkel. As the first woman to occupy this post, her successful tenure is all the more impressive. While her visionary European colleagues have come and gone, Merkel’s pragmatism and restraint have not only allowed Germany’s influence to grow incrementally, but she has also managed a succession of potentially overwhelming crises.
As a product of a divided Germany, growing up in the isolated and repressive East, Merkel never abandoned the lessons of her youth. Avoiding the ideological rigidity that led Germany to calamity, her steady hand is guided by her political inclusiveness. “Sometimes I am liberal, sometimes I am conservative, sometimes I am Christian-social — and this is what the CDU is all about,” she said in 2009, referring to her Christian Democratic Union party. It is this ideological dexterity that German and European political life will miss most. With the experience of recent years showing the pitfalls of populist movements and the rise of the extreme right, the departure of Merkel’s steadying influence will be keenly felt.
What was long expected to be a soft transition of power will be all the more interesting as 2021 happens to be a big election year in Germany. In addition to the Bundestag elections in September, regional and in some cases local elections will be held.
The chancellor sensed the fatigue of her administration having again been forced to enter a coalition following the 2017 election. However, compounded by a pandemic response that was slow at best, this year provides a real opportunity for a reconfiguration of German and European politics. As the new head of Merkel’s CDU, Armin Laschet offers continuity from the Merkel era and an ability to reach out to elements within German society that feel left out of the political process. However, the Greens, the far left and the far right — though without politically consequential public support — are on the rise. The next chancellor will have to radically revisit the electability of the CDU or risk awakening long-silenced radical and extremist voices.
In 2015, more than a million refugees arrived in Germany. Merkel responded to criticism of this defining moment of her premiership with the statement: “If we now have to start apologizing for showing a friendly face in emergency situations, then that is not my country.” Germany’s altruism during the refugee crisis encouraged others in Europe to help alleviate its burden, but for many voters a decision that would change the fabric of German society and has led to several unsettling episodes should have involved greater public consultation and consideration for the long-term impact on the future cohesiveness of a state that was only too recently divided.
The upcoming elections, despite the system of proportional representation that encourages compromise, will be a watershed moment for parties from across the political spectrum to address controversial topics that the great shroud of Merkel’s dependability and likeability has prevented from surfacing.
Aside from these rather pertinent domestic issues, the economic growth over which Merkel has presided has forced Germany to consider certain foreign policy imperatives that successive postwar leaders lacked the confidence to engage with. Sixteen years in power has forced German policymakers to consider the insecurity of their central European reality.
The EU’s response to the eurozone crisis and aversion of the almost-certain economic collapse of certain member states was led by Germany. Russia’s annexation of Crimea brought home the threat posed by Germany’s imposing eastern neighbor. And the spectacular departure of Britain, the EU’s second-largest economy, coupled with growing American reluctance on guaranteeing continental security, were key moments in Merkel’s chancellorship. In expediting conversations about increased European integration — by decades in some cases — the Germany that Merkel’s successor inherits will be the single most important hinge upon which the realization of the European project depends.
How Germany is able to increase European unity without neglecting issues at home will be a key preoccupation of the new chancellor.
Zaid M. Belbagi
There is little doubt that Merkel’s model of sound and predictable leadership, particularly during the pandemic and other global crises, has brought Germany prominence around the globe. Coinciding with US leadership having plummeted, the approval of Germany’s leadership, especially on the continent, is unprecedentedly high. However, this high note could be muted following Merkel’s departure. Where she had the advantage of focusing on domestic challenges first, her successors will increasingly be drawn into international issues. Germany has far too much invested in the European project to see it fail, and the Macronist integration from which its leaders have shied is increasingly a necessity as America’s appetite to police the world wanes. How Germany is able to increase European unity without neglecting issues at home will be a key preoccupation of the new chancellor.
However, the single most important concern — which Merkel has overlooked — is security. The next generation of German leaders will not have the luxury of forgetting about the NATO commitment to spend 2 percent of gross domestic product on defense, upon which long-term American support is conditioned. In an increasingly insecure world, and as a country with nine neighbors, Germany will have to choose whether to act as an enabler of European power or risk losing the moment altogether.
- Zaid M. Belbagi is a political commentator, and an adviser to private clients between London and the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC). Twitter: @Moulay_Zaid
