With India and Afghanistan in equation, will Biden revive military ties with Pakistan?
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Despite a new man in the White House who has experience in dealing with Pakistan, the country is under no illusions of any fundamental change or softening of position on the strategic issues where Islamabad and Washington have continuing differing priorities.
The one area where there is a relatively greater convergence of interest and likelihood of cooperation is defense. And this could lead to a better military to military relationship. The most immediate area of interest is Afghanistan in which the US expects Pakistan's military to use its influence with the Taliban leadership to reduce violence and be more flexible in their negotiations with the Afghan government.
But there are limits to Pakistan’s influence. Afghanistan’s stability is vital in Pakistan’s own interest. The fallout of a brutal civil war in Afghanistan that could follow the exit of American forces will have serious consequences for Pakistan’s security, especially Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan.
A recent bipartisan report recently sent to the Congress, "recognizes Pakistan’s key role in the Afghan peace process and has advised the Biden administration to work with Islamabad to end decades of war and destruction in Afghanistan.” It also advises the US to work with Pakistan as among the regional countries it exercises the most influence over the Taliban.
A chaotic and unstable Afghanistan will be a battle-ground for the proxies of regional powers and will certainly intensify already strained relations between India and Pakistan.
Notwithstanding Washington’s strategic and economic ties with New Delhi, Pakistan expects that it will persuade India to engage with it and reduce violence in Kashmir. The intense firing on the Line of Control in Kashmir has the potential of escalating into a full fledged confrontation. Furthermore, there is a justifiable apprehension in Pakistan that sophisticated military hardware being supplied by the US to India will be used against it.
There are other areas of common interest between US and Pakistan that need to be revived. Pakistan in all likelihood would like to have access in certain specific fields of defense technology and equipment and would like to procure these provided the US releases these for sale and on terms that Pakistan can afford.
The Indo-Pacific US strategy is based on an Indo-US defense partnership. It has consequences for Pakistan as India will use its enhanced military and economic power more against Pakistan than China.
Talat Masood
Moreover, Pakistan military still has some critical weapons and equipment of US origin in its inventory and it would like to keep them battle worthy by having a reliable source of supply of spares from the US rather than look for alternatives from other countries. Pakistan expects there to be continuity in the relationship and no abrupt breakdowns as in the past, which created a serious logistic and political fallout.
In the past, Pakistan military officers greatly benefited from professional courses and training assignments that the American military offered to foreign students. Pakistani officers who did courses or were attached with US defense forces for familiarization have mostly returned with a better understanding of the US military and the country in general, and subsequently played a more positive role in developing a sound relationship between the two armies.
Past experience reminds us that US assistance has been cut off during conflict with India. Although suspension of aid during an actual conflict is very damaging, it has been US policy. There have also been occasions when the US has cut aid or suspended the sale of military equipment to Pakistan for a long period over policy differences, to put pressure on Islamabad to follow its dictates. The US Congress and Senate have generally taken a hard position on Pakistan that stands in sharp contrast to their policy of actively promoting the interests of India.
One does realize that the global and regional situation has changed in the last few years with the US essentially using Cold War tactics to thwart China’s rising economic and strategic power. The anti-China invective enjoys bipartisan support so the new US administration will continue to maintain pressure on China to thwart its rise.
India has become a willing partner in this anti-China venture. It expects to be vastly benefited in terms of having access to cutting edge technologies and military equipment from the US. The Indo-Pacific US strategy is based on an Indo-US defense partnership. It has consequences for Pakistan as India will use its enhanced military and economic power more against Pakistan than China. This is so clearly evident from India’s present policy of completely disengaging from Pakistan and keeping the Line of Control in Kashmir highly volatile.
On the contrary, China has been a reliable partner to Pakistan and there is greater convergence of interest. Beijing’s support—military, political and strategic-- acts as a counterweight against India’s belligerent policies. The economic assistance and especially the China-Pakistan-Economic-Corridor (CPEC), has injected greater vigor and substance to this relationship.
Furthermore, there are expectations that Washington will use its influence in persuading India to engage with Pakistan and to work towards a peaceful resolution of the Kashmir conflict. The two countries should cease cross-border violations that have the potential of flaring up into a full-blown military conflict.
But the US-Pakistan relationship should not be a zero-sum game. Despite India’s close partnership with the US and Pakistan’s leaning heavily on China, there are areas of mutual interest between US and Pakistan, especially in defense, that need to be further strengthened in the interests of the region.
*Talat Masood is a retired Lieutenant General from Pakistan Army and an eminent scholar on national security and political issues.
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