Erdogan’s charm offensive hints at imminent Turkish shift
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After several daring initiatives, Turkey is slowly becoming aware that the time has come to make policy adjustments in many areas. In terms of domestic policy, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has solemnly announced that important reforms will be launched in the fields of the judiciary and the economy, but this article will focus on the initiatives in Ankara’s foreign relations.
Turkey has achieved some breakthroughs in its initiatives in Libya and in Nagorno-Karabakh. In Libya, Turkey’s support turned the course of events in favor of the UN-backed Government of National Accord and a military balance seems to have been established, although pressure for the withdrawal of foreign forces — including Turkey’s — continues. In Nagorno-Karabakh, the drones Azerbaijan purchased from Turkey proved to be effective in the recent military clashes. Furthermore, high-ranking Azeri military officials, trained in Turkey’s military staff college, performed well on the battlefield. This demonstrated to Azerbaijan the importance of its cooperation with Ankara.
Apart from the full-fledged success in Nagorno-Karabakh and some breakthroughs in Libya, Turkey has become aware that it has hit rock-bottom in its foreign relations. Ties with the US ran into trouble with Turkey’s purchase of the Russian-manufactured S-400 air defense system. Ankara continues to maintain its insistence on the deployment of the S-400. And, as if this was not enough, Erdogan also recently announced that negotiations with Russia for a second consignment of the system are under way.
Emphatic criticisms directed at Turkey by President-elect Joe Biden during the presidential campaign do not augur well for future bilateral relations. The positions are so entrenched on both sides that it is not easy to speculate on the possible outcome. Furthermore, the key positions that have a Turkey dimension in the Biden administration are being filled by nominees who, in the past, have supported policies that Ankara was not happy with.
Turkey seems to be trying to repair its relations with the US by appointing a political figure — a founding member of the ruling Justice and Development Party — as its ambassador to Washington. This may mean that the government wants to manage its relations with the US in a different manner than in the past.
However, the foreign policy areas in which Turkey has made the most striking steps are in its relations with the EU and the Gulf countries.
Apart from Nagorno-Karabakh and Libya, Turkey has become aware that it has hit rock-bottom in its foreign relations.
Yasar Yakis
It has rediscovered the importance of good ties with both the EU and individual European countries. A charm offensive seems to be under way with many EU countries. For example, Turkey has appointed to Paris a professional diplomat who was a classmate of French President Emmanuel Macron in the prestigious National School of Administration.
Erdogan also dispatched Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu to several capitals with instructions to improve relations. And, on Tuesday last week, the president addressed EU ambassadors in Ankara, telling them that Turkey remains committed to the accession process. He explicitly said that he wants to open a new page in the country’s relations with the EU. He used conciliatory language regarding relations with France, which were strained late last year, and announced that “exploratory talks” with Greece are scheduled to resume toward the end of this month. These talks, which started at the turn of the century, are still called “exploratory” despite the fact we are now in the 61st round.
The most visible turnaround, however, was with the Gulf countries. Erdogan had a telephone conversation with King Salman. Meanwhile, Lebanese Prime Minister-designate Saad Hariri visited Istanbul, with rumors saying this was to repair Turkey’s damaged relations with the Gulf states.
For years, relations have been tense between Turkey and the UAE. Emirati Foreign Minister Anwar Gargash has said the UAE would be ready to improve ties with Turkey if Ankara ceased being the primary backer of the Muslim Brotherhood. Whether or not Turkey will do so remains to be seen.
A sensitive aspect of Turkey’s relations with the Gulf countries is its close ties with Qatar. The closure of the Turkish military base in Qatar was one of the 13 conditions put forward by the Anti-Terror Quartet before relations with Doha would be resumed. Although the Gulf dispute has been resolved, if these states continue to insist on this issue then Turkey-Qatar ties are bound to face problems.
Meanwhile, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev is said to have mediated efforts to improve Turkey’s ties with Israel, with whom he maintains good relations. And Turkish media reports have claimed that there are high-level contacts between the Turkish and Egyptian intelligence agencies. There are frequent stories in both countries that relations will be normalized sooner rather than later.
Almost all of these initiatives have taken place in a period of just one or two weeks. We may, therefore, presume that something is brewing in Turkey’s decision-making process. But it will not be easy to forgive and forget all that has been said and done between Turkey and all these countries in the recent past.
- Yasar Yakis is a former foreign minister of Turkey and founding member of the ruling AK Party. Twitter: @yakis_yasar