Implications of Indo-US defence pact: Is India the ally Washington wanted?
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The recent signing of the Indo-US Basic Exchange and Cooperation Agreement on the sharing of geospatial information (BECA) marks a further step in the deepening of their military partnership which now verges on creating a defense alliance that some American diplomats characterize as ‘generational’ in scope and substance. At this point, it is the optics and a narrative that is being spun but with the passage of time it is evident that these developments will have far reaching consequences for the region and the world.
The US defense strategy now focuses on ‘great power competition’ with China and Russia. The US views India from this prism and considers India a natural ally in containing China. Its Indo-Pacific strategy is essentially directed against China and with like-minded countries, notably Australia, India and Japan, it is taking steps to build a security architecture in the broader region in the garb of Quad.
The naval component includes regular joint naval exercises and greater interoperability between the navies of the participating states and logistic support agreements. Ostensibly, the idea is to ring China in the Pacific and Indian ocean regions thus constraining its rise. This strategy has unfolded at bilateral and multilateral levels.
BECA is bilateral and adds to the earlier bilateral agreements, understandings and arrangements with India. The US has promised a supply of high technology weaponry to India, and BECA will enable India to use data from US military satellites for strategic and conventional warfare such as nuclear weapons, missiles and armed drone strikes. It aims at providing a qualitative edge in the technological sphere with military applications.
India has also been active in elevating the multilateral Quad concept. It is now notionally and irrevocably committed to serve the Quad purposes against China.
This means that India has decided to give up its strategic autonomy; and any hope for arriving at a working relationship with China; and entered the great power competition as a US ally. By doing so it has also relinquished its own claim to be regarded as a great power in its own right and acceded in reality to the role of a junior proxy in the great power game.
India has decided to give up its strategic autonomy; and any hope for arriving at a working relationship with China; and entered the great power competition as a US ally. By doing so it has also relinquished its own claim to be regarded as a great power in its own right and acceded in reality to the role of a junior proxy in the great power game.
Salman Bashir
Only time and history will tell whether this was an opportunistic move by India, which we believe has neither the intent, nor will ever have the capacity to match China in the foreseeable future.
The accretion of India’s strategic and conventional strength as a result of its military partnership with the US could only help it in realizing its imperialistic ambitions within South and Central Asia.
This has been the theme song of the BJP government’s philosophy and policies both regionally and domestically. The fact is that India has lost considerable ground within its immediate region. Anti-India sentiment abounds among all of its South Asian neighbors.
India may hope that its partnership with the US will help it in some ways within South Asia. But this may not be the case as smaller neighbors look elsewhere to find external balancers to meet their security requirements.
Already, China is fast gaining acknowledgement within the region as a reliable provider of security and economic assistance.
Moreover, the Indian ocean cannot be an Indian lake. The strategic waterways are patrolled by several extra-territorial navies. A more realistic way would have been to work for littoral states cooperation for an Indian ocean zone of peace initiative that would have a better chance of ensuring a rule-based regime for freedom of navigation. But realpolitik will brook no idealism.
Even as the US embarks on its 21st century India project, it should carefully consider whether its investments will be worthwhile. Any objective reading will reveal that India is in a state of sharp decline politically, socially and economically. Democracy has yielded a majoritarian and authoritarian regime and almost one third of Indian territory is under active insurgencies. Its economy has started to contract at an alarming rate. India will witness double digit negative growth. The BJP has triggered communal conflicts and social convulsions that tend to rip apart India’s unity.
In short, India lacks the fundamental capacities to fulfil the role that America wishes to assign it.
Pakistan has taken note of BECA. A foreign ministry statement issued in Islamabad on Oct.27 states: ‘India’s massive acquisition of armaments and expansion of its nuclear forces, including the introduction of new destabilizing weapon systems, are developments with serious repercussions for peace and stability... the military spin-offs of conducting high technology trade with India has not only eroded the international norms but has also resulted in negatively affecting the strategic stability in South Asia.’
It is evident that Pakistan will be obliged to take appropriate counter measures. Engulfing the region in a new global cold war is fraught with dangerous consequences-- and a source of deep concern for all regional states.
– Salman Bashir is a Pakistani diplomat who served as Foreign Secretary of Pakistan and as High Commissioner of Pakistan to India.
Twitter: @Salman_B_PK
