UK borrowing set to reach record high

The UK government has borrowed heavily to fight the coronavirus pandemic, with high levels of spending continuing despite falling tax revenues. (Reuters)
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Updated 22 October 2020

UK borrowing set to reach record high

  • Moody’s issues downgrade as it warns Britain ‘effectively has no fiscal anchor’ downgrade

LONDON: Britain’s government borrowing exceeded forecasts in September and over the first half of the financial year was more than six times higher than a year earlier, due to the huge cost of the coronavirus pandemic, official data showed on Wednesday.

Public sector net borrowing totaled £36.1 billion ($47 billion) last month, above the £33.5 billion forecast in a Reuters poll, although August’s figure was revised down by more than £5 billion to £30.11 billion.

Separately, the Office for National Statistics said annual consumer price inflation in September rose to 0.5 percent in September from 0.2 percent in August, when it had been reduced by a temporary scheme to promote dining in restaurants.

Economists polled by Reuters had on average predicted a rise in inflation to 0.5 percent.

British public borrowing is on course to reach a record £372 billion this financial year, according to forecasts in August from the Office for Budget Responsibility, equivalent to 18.9 percent of gross domestic product (GDP), the most since the Second World War. Driven by a surge in coronavirus-related spending and a fall in tax revenue after the biggest economic hit since at least the 1920s, borrowing in the first half of the financial year totalled £208.5 billion.

Wednesday’s figures also showed that public debt rose further above the £2 trillion mark to £2.06 trillion or 103.5 percent of GDP, its highest on this measure since 1960.

Ratings agency Moody’s downgraded Britain’s sovereign credit rating on Friday to the same level as Belgium’s and the Czech Republic’s, warning that Britain “effectively has no fiscal anchor.”

Financial markets have repeatedly shrugged off these warnings, though, and 10-year government borrowing costs of around 0.2 percent are only slightly above an all-time low struck at the start of the pandemic.

Economists polled by Reuters expect the Bank of England to launch a further £100 billion of bond purchases next month, adding to the £300 billion announced since March.

Earlier this month finance minister Rishi Sunak said rapidly rising debt made the country more vulnerable to any future spike in interest rates, but that for now his priority needed to be on supporting the economy.

Japan’s capital sees prices fall most in over 8 years as COVID-19 pain persists

Updated 27 November 2020

Japan’s capital sees prices fall most in over 8 years as COVID-19 pain persists

  • Tokyo core CPI marks biggest annual drop since May 2012
  • Data suggests nationwide consumer prices to stay weak

TOKYO: Core consumer prices in Tokyo suffered their biggest annual drop in more than eight years, data showed on Friday, an indication the hit to consumption from the coronavirus crisis continued to heap deflationary pressure on the economy.
The data, which is considered a leading indicator of nationwide price trends, reinforces market expectations that inflation will remain distant from the Bank of Japan’s 2% target for the foreseeable future.
“Consumer prices will continue to hover on a weak note as any economic recovery will be moderate,” said Dai-ichi Life Research Institute, which expects nationwide core consumer prices to fall 0.5% in the fiscal year ending March 2021.
The core consumer price index (CPI) for Japan’s capital, which includes oil products but excludes fresh food prices, fell 0.7% in November from a year earlier, government data showed, matching a median market forecast.
It followed a 0.5% drop in October and marked the biggest annual drop since May 2012, underscoring the challenge policymakers face in battling headwinds to growth from COVID-19.
The slump in fuel costs and the impact of a government campaign offering discounts to domestic travel weighed on Tokyo consumer prices, the data showed.
Japan’s economy expanded in July-September from a record post-war slump in the second quarter, when lockdown measures to prevent the spread of the virus cooled consumption and paralyzed business activity.
Analysts, however, expect any recovery to be modest with a resurgence in global and domestic infections clouding the outlook, keeping pressure on policymakers to maintain or even ramp up stimulus.