Tough times ahead for Prime Minister Imran Khan
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Pakistan’s Prime Minister Imran Khan faces perhaps the most serious challenge yet as the opposition alliance has launched a countrywide protest movement against his shaky administration. It’s a formidable coalition comprising all shades of parties united against what is described as a “hybrid dispensation.”
The two rallies held by the new multiparty alliance, under the banner of the Pakistan Democratic Movement (PDM) may have drawn significant mass participation, but it remains to be seen if the motley coalition can build enough momentum to bring down the government.
The formation of the PDM has brought bitter rivals PML-N and PPP together. It signifies the shifting sands of Pakistani politics. Although it may be sheer political expediency that has forced the disparate political groups to join hands, it has already brought a beleaguered administration under pressure. Jointly, they have already made things more difficult for the PTI government, which is struggling to come to grips with a dire economic situation.
The 26-point resolution adopted by the PDM vows to oust what it describes as the “selected prime minister” through a mass movement, and calls for an end to the establishment’s role in politics. There had been many attempts over the last two years to bring the fractious opposition groups together on a common anti-government agenda but they had failed until now.
However the relentless persecution of opposition leaders in the name of accountability pushed the two parties to the wall. Their growing frustration with closing avenues for democratic political process in the country has also been a factor in bringing the disparate parties together.
While PML-N leader Nawaz Sharif’s aggressive virtual address from London at the opposition conclave on September 20 set the narrative for the new multiparty alliance, it has also generated a political maelstrom. The ruling party, the Pakistan Tehreek-i-Insaf (PTI), took no time in declaring the three-time former prime minister ‘anti-state.’
The anti-establishment agenda of the newly formed alliance also signifies a marked shift in the opposition’s stance. The focus is now on the security establishment, which is believed to be the real power behind the Imran Khan government. In the words of the ousted three- time prime minister; it’s the “state above the state” that needs to be taken on.
This narrative may have become a clarion call for the newly formed alliance, but it remains to be seen whether it could also help galvanize the masses. Taking on a government that is fast losing its support base is one thing, but directly challenging the all-powerful security establishment will be a serious test for the coalition.
Taking on a government that is fast losing its support base is one thing, but directly challenging the all-powerful security establishment will be a serious test for the coalition.
Zahid Hussain
Meanwhile, the support of the establishment may have given the government some semblance of stability, but the balance sheet of the Imran Khan government on the completion of its second year in power is far from being satisfactory. Governance remains the major problem area.
Two years on, there is no sign yet of the PTI government having developed the capability to take rational decisions on critical domestic and foreign policy issues. The government’s increasing dependence on the security establishment for survival has further undermined its ability to improve and course-correct.
It is not just about the opposition political parties joining hands but also the growing concern among civil society over increasing incidents of human rights violations, forced disappearances and treason cases filed against journalists that has made the situation extremely volatile. The Pakistan Bar Council and the Supreme Court Bar Association in a joint statement last month had warned against the fast diminishing freedom of expression, freedom of the press and personal liberties. It also condemned the “use of accountability as a tool of political engineering.”
The PDM has announced a phased plan to organize rallies across the country and gradually ratchet up the momentum. The strategy is to make the final assault some time in March, before the critical Senate elections, which would give the PTI control of the upper house of parliament.
The battleground is Punjab, the country’s biggest province, which is also the PML-N’s stronghold. The absence of governance and rising inflation has fuelled discontent in the province and led to a decline in the PTI’s support base. These are signs of a gathering storm, but there is little realization within the government of the seriousness of the situation.
Given the lessons of past alliances, PDM may not be able to bring down the government or weaken the establishment’s hold on politics. Fighting an administration backed by the security establishment is a tall order. But it could well build resistance to any attempt to establish an authoritarian regime.
– Zahid Hussain is an award-winning journalist and author. He is a former scholar at Woodrow Wilson International Centre for Scholar, USA, and a visiting fellow at Wolfson College, University of Cambridge, and at the Stimson Center in Washington DC. He is author of Frontline Pakistan: The struggle with militant Islam (Columbia university press) and The Scorpion’s tail: The relentless rise of Islamic militants in Pakistan (Simon and Schuster, NY). Frontline Pakistan was the book of the year (2007) by the WSJ.
Twitter: @hidhussain
