Prospects of peace in Afghanistan
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US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo was clearly jubilant when he attended the opening of the talks between the Taliban and the government of the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan. In the readout of his meeting with the Taliban, he was quoted as saying that he welcomed “Afghan leadership and ownership of the effort to end 40 years of war and ensure that Afghanistan is not a threat to the United States or its allies.” More significant, however, was the part of his speech on the occasion where he said, “I would urge you—as you make your decisions you should keep in mind that your choices and conduct will affect both the size and scope of United States future assistance. Our hope is that you will reach a sustainable peace and our goal is an enduring partnership with Afghanistan.”
Meanwhile, President Donald Trump has said that the troop level in Afghanistan will be reduced to 4,500 before the November election in the United States and as promised in the Taliban-US agreement all American troops will be gone by May 2021. If no agreement is reached by then in the “Afghan led and Afghan owned talks,” it is unlikely that this will change the withdrawal timetable for regular US troops even if Biden wins since he is in agreement with Trump on this.
It has been almost a week since the opening ceremonies and there is as yet no agreement even on the framework for the talks. Taliban spokespersons have said that the cause for the war has to be addressed before there can be talk of a ceasefire. They have charged that the government has continued its offensive operations even as the government accuses the Taliban of continuing their attacks on the Afghan forces while refraining from action against the Americans.
Najmuddin A. Shaikh
A pledging conference for assistance to Afghanistan may be held by the end of this year. Afghanistan depends on foreign assistance for 55 to 60 percent of its budget and almost entirely on donor assistance for the $4.1 billion needed for its armed forces including the Afghan National Police and sundry other forces.
All parties may have good intentions, but it is not at all certain that funds will be forthcoming in the required quantity, making the Afghan administration vulnerable, though it is not just the government that needs the funding to continue. It is also essential for the Taliban who cannot bear the burden of paying the approximately 320,000 members of the military and civil armed forces or the personnel of the health and education facilities that have been created. Additions to the approximately 40 percent unemployed or underemployed would create more unrest.
The sense of urgency this should engender is not evident. It has been almost a week since the opening ceremonies and there is as yet no agreement even on the framework for the talks. Taliban spokespersons have said that the cause for the war has to be addressed before there can be talk of a ceasefire. They have charged that the government has continued its offensive operations even as the government accuses the Taliban of continuing their attacks on the Afghan forces while refraining from action against the Americans. There is the perception, perhaps mistaken, that the Taliban want that the first issue should be to rename the Islamic Republic as the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan which the government cannot concede.
Forty-two years have passed since the so-called Saur Revolution brought a Marxist government to power and set in motion nationalist Afghan resistance, with American, Saudi and Pakistani assistance, to the imposition of communist rule. This brought Soviet occupation. Their defeat at the hands of the Mujahideen became an important factor in the disintegration of the USSR and left the US as the undisputed and only superpower of the world. In Afghanistan, however, this did not bring peace. Internecine quarrels tore Afghanistan apart and created the ground for Taliban rule which in turn led to the sanctuary/shelter for Bin Laden, the catastrophe of 9/11 and then the full wreaking of vengeance by the Americans. Taliban requests to be granted amnesty and to be allowed to live as ordinary citizens were rejected by the Americans. Instead they chose to revive the old warlords and their fiefdoms and then chose to divert attention—political and administrative—from Afghanistan to Iraq.
The rise of the Taliban became inevitable. Bin Laden’s escape to Pakistan followed once the Americans decided to leave the siege of Bin Laden’s sanctuary in Tora Bora to the renegade Afghan commander Hazrat Ali of Jalalabad. Because of old connections or heavy bribery, Ali let Bin Laden cross into Pakistan which created a monumental problem for this country.
This necessarily brief history of Afghan developments can be elaborated in further articles for a fuller understanding.
For now, it indicates that the best course for Pakistan is (i) to offer its services to the cause of peace in Afghanistan—the American negotiator has expressed his appreciation for Pakistan’s role in the peace process (ii) to complete the fencing of its border—the Durand Line—with Afghanistan (iii) to open new routes for Afghanistan’s trade with Pakistan and the rest of the world. The addition of the Gwadar-Chaman highway may well make Gwadar the principal Afghan gateway for trade with the world. We must otherwise leave the negotiators to work things out.
Another caution is, however, necessary. Pompeo may be right in claiming that there are only 200 Al-Qaeda personnel in Afghanistan. Yet, it is known that numerous Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan followers, Uighurs from Xinjiang and Daesh adherents are to be found in the ungoverned spaces of Afghanistan. They pose a constant danger to stability in Pakistan’s border area and Pakistan must work as well as it can with Afghanistan to neutralize them.
- Ambassador Najmuddin A. Shaikh is a former foreign secretary of Pakistan, and served as high commissioner to Canada, ambassador to Germany, US and Iran. He is a former member of the board of governors of the Institute of Strategic Studies in Islamabad and a founding member of the Karachi Council of Foreign Relations.
