Europe’s big beasts make plans for the future
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The hand of history was on the minds of Emmanuel Macron and Angela Merkel in their mini-summit last week; 76 years after Paris was liberated from Nazi forces, the two leaders plotted the future of the EU and Europe’s wider role in the world.
The meeting at Fort de Bregancon, the summer residence of French leaders, was the first there since 1985. At that time, Helmut Kohl and Francois Mitterrand forged a trusted partnership, and Merkel and Macron are working more closely together now than at any time during their periods in office.
While the Franco-German alliance has long been the motor of European integration, cooperation between the two powers ebbs and flows. The current high point in the Macron and Merkel relationship partially reflects the fact that the former faces an uncertain election outlook in 2022, while the latter is leaving office next year.
“We need to ramp up our co-operation, whether it’s Lebanon or Belarus or Covid-19 … even though we don’t enjoy global leadership, we will ensure the EU makes its voice heard,” Merkel said, echoing Macron’s theme of “European sovereignty.” It is this combined context that is bringing out both of their concerns to come together to try to steer the EU’s future, internally and externally. Both, in their own ways, are extraordinary politicians with an eye on their legacies, and see Germany’s current six months presidency of the EU as a key vehicle to realize their ambitions.
Since his remarkable rise to power, Macron has emerged as one of the most authoritative defenders of the liberal international order. Indeed, the young French president and Donald Trump currently embody perhaps more than any other democratic leaders the current battle in international relations between a populist tide and the liberal center ground.
Macron aside, Merkel, in office since 2005, has been the most important political leader in continental Europe. Four French presidents (Jacques Chirac, Nicolas Sarkozy, Francois Hollande and now Macron himself) have already served during her long tenure.
Both Merkel and Macron believe that Europe is now, a century and a half after Bismarck’s time, in another critical period in the midst of a massive recession and political tumult.
Andrew Hammond
By the end of her fourth term next year, she will have matched Kohl’s 16 years in office. Indeed, in length of tenure she will sit behind only Otto von Bismarck, who served for almost two decades from 1871–90 and was a dominant force in European affairs, having helped drive German unification.
Both Merkel and Macron believe that Europe is now, a century and a half after Bismarck’s time, in another critical period in the midst of a massive recession and political tumult. The fact that they perceive this political window of opportunity reflects not just the economic stresses that the coronavirus has brought to the continent, but also Brexit, given that the UK would have been skeptical of key elements that Macron and Merkel are now pushing, including stronger defense union.
Their agenda last week was therefore far reaching, including the turmoil in Belarus, Lebanon and Mali; Greek-Turkey tensions; re-imagining the shape of the EU post-Brexit; carving out a role for Europe as a defense power to match its economic might; and the relationship the EU should have with China, post-pandemic. While these are all key issues, it could be Belarus that becomes the most pressing business for Macron and Merkel this month.
They made the offer of EU-led mediation for Belarus. They also told Vladimir Putin that Alexander Lukashenko's government must stop using violence against peaceful demonstrators, engage with the opposition, and immediately release political prisoners. Some EU leaders want to go further and agreed last week to draw up a list of targets for a new round of potential sanctions.
The situation remains combustible, and Putin says the EU placing external pressure on the leadership in Minsk is unacceptable. Belarus is one of Russia's closest allies and a full member of two Moscow-dominated alliances that are alternatives to the EU and NATO in Europe; the Eurasian Economic Union and the Collective Security Treaty Organization.
Much of this German-Franco agenda may not be realized in 2020, but a significant start was made last month as they worked together to persuade squabbling EU members to give the bloc, for the first time in its history, debt-raising powers to finance a 750 billion euro pandemic recovery plan.
A UK-EU trade deal would be another key success for the German presidency of the EU after years of Brexit angst. Both Macron and Merkel now want to see an agreement with London to avoid a hard, disorderly end to the UK transition period, and use this as a platform for the continent, in the midst of continuing division, to come together again and forge a new path into the 2020s and beyond.
- Andrew Hammond is an Associate at LSE IDEAS at the London School of Economics
