Release of prisoners, a stumbling block for intra Afghan talks
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The long-awaited intra-Afghan talks to discuss the country’s political future and bring an end to America's two-decade war in Afghanistan, are likely to be delayed further over the issue of release of the last batch of Taliban prisoners. A failed assassination attempt on a prominent female human rights activist, who is also a member of the Afghan government's delegation for talks, cast a further shadow over the fragile peace process.
It was hoped that the direct talks between Kabul and the Taliban could start before the end of this month, but there is no indication yet of it happening soon.
The government last week freed 80 of the last 400 Taliban prisoners it was bound to release under a US-Taliban agreement signed in February. Further delay becomes a stumbling block in the commencement of intra-Afghan negotiations. The insurgents have refused to start talks before the remaining prisoners are freed.
Although President Ashraf Ghani has passed an order for their release, there is still some reservation over those whom the government describes as “hard-core convicts.” Many of them have been convicted of murder and were sentenced to death. While sounding a not of warning that their release posed a security risk, the president declared that “their freedom is necessary to advance the cause of peace."
In a virtual address to the Council on Foreign Relations, Ghani remarked that the prisoners were “likely to pose a danger for us and the world," because among them were "drug dealers and hardened criminals." He had passed the order for their release after a grand assembly, or Loya Jirga, which met earlier this month, gave its approval. There was also American pressure behind the move.
The Taliban have maintained a deliberate ambiguity about their political agenda, adding to the sense of confusion. There has been no clarity on whether or not they would be willing to work within a democratic and pluralistic political set-up.
Zahid Hussain
It is apparent that the Trump administration does not want any delay in its plan to withdraw US forces from Afghanistan — which was stipulated in the February deal with the Taliban. In fact, the drawdown of US troops had started soon after the signing of the agreement. The number of American troops in Afghanistan has now dropped to approximately 8,600 from about 13,000 and five military bases have been closed.
The US secretary of defense said another 3,600 soldiers would be brought home by November, leaving less than 5,000 in Afghanistan. Their complete withdrawal is linked to an intra-Afghan agreement on a future political set-up.
As the Afghan president maintains that his administration and the Afghan people want peace, but "they're willing to wait for it if the Taliban fail to negotiate as a serious partner,” the Taliban have accused the Kabul government of deliberately delaying the release of the prisoners.
Indeed, the stakes are high for both sides of the divide. While an agreement would raise the prospects for peace, a breakdown in talks could deepen the civil war. It is not just about a power-sharing arrangement; it is also about a future political system in the country and protection of fundamental rights of all sections of the population. The outcome of the talks would largely depend on whether or not the Taliban are willing to accept a pluralistic political order.
In a situation where two sides have long been locked in conflict, it is never easy to negotiate peace and agree to a political transition. More importantly, the talks will be taking place in an atmosphere of heightened hostilities. Since the signing of the accord with the US, the Taliban have intensified their attacks on Afghan security forces in order to expand their areas under their influence. It seems to be a part of Taliban strategy to gain advantage at the negotiating table.
For negotiations to move forward, it will be imperative for the two sides to agree to a ceasefire and lower the level of hostility. It remains to be seen whether the Taliban will show the same degree of pragmatism as their leaders had done during peace negotiations with the US. The recent ceasefire on Eid Al-Adha certainly helped create better conditions for negotiations. But continued violence could make it extremely difficult for the talks to progress.
Notwithstanding their solemn pledges, the Taliban have maintained a deliberate ambiguity about their political agenda, adding to the sense of confusion. There has been no clarity on whether or not they would be willing to work within a democratic and pluralistic political set-up. But both sides will now have to show seriousness in finding a political solution to the festering Afghan conflict.
- Zahid Hussain is an award-winning journalist and author. He is a former scholar at Woodrow Wilson International Centre for Scholar, USA, and a visiting fellow at Wolfson College, University of Cambridge, and at the Stimson Center in Washington DC. He is author of Frontline Pakistan: The struggle with militant Islam (Columbia university press) and The Scorpion’s tail: The relentless rise of Islamic militants in Pakistan (Simon and Schuster, NY). Frontline Pakistan was the book of the year (2007) by the WSJ.
