World cannot afford to take its eyes off North Korea-South Korea tensions
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Across the globe, the coronavirus pandemic has changed the way we work, live and travel, not to speak of the tragic loss of life inflicted on humanity. No wonder then, that priorities shifted and old conflicts were not really the focus of the media.
This holds true for the status of North Korea in the international community. We have heard little of the hermit state and its Kim dynasty over the last few months.
Earlier this year, South Korea withdrew its staff from the joint liaison office in Kaesong, 10 kilometers north of the border between the two countries, out of fear of the virus spreading. Things remained quiet, but North Korea nonetheless ratcheted up the tension. On March 2, Pyongyang fired two projectiles, which was a provocation to South Korea, Japan and the US.
There were concerns over the health of the country’s president, Kim Jong Un, when he failed to appear in public for a few weeks in May. When he reappeared, Pyongyang’s rhetoric ratcheted up further. Actions soon followed these words.
While things remained remarkably quiet during the joint exercises between the US and South Korean air forces in April, the North responded swiftly when human rights groups sent anti-Kim propaganda across the border in balloons. The North Korean state news agency announced that the lines of communication between the two countries would be severed. In an outburst of hate, the Korean Central News Agency said: “All the people of the DPRK (North Korea) have been angered by the treacherous and cunning behavior of the South Korean authorities, with whom we still have lots of accounts to settle.”
Then the regime doubled down. The messenger was not Kim but his younger sister, Kim Yo Jong. No one would have expected such harsh words out of the diminutive figure with a sphinxlike smile. She announced on state media that, “before long, a tragic scene of the useless north-south joint liaison office completely collapsed would be seen.” And so it happened. On Tuesday, North Korea blew up the office, which is located on North Korean territory and funded by South Korean taxpayers.
South Korea’s President did his best to defuse the situation, but to no avail. The North even vowed to redeploy troops to border areas.
How did we get here? Due to the pandemic, North Korea is more isolated than ever, especially since it sealed its 1,400-kilometer-long border with China when the virus started to spread in Northeast Asia. The country also suffers as a result of crippling sanctions, which it feels should have been lifted after it started its detente with US President Donald Trump. Alas, the US and South Korea look at things differently. This means that access to money, medicine and food is not commensurate with the country’s economic and health care needs — especially during this pandemic. The Kim regime seems to be adhering to its time-honored tradition of ratcheting up rhetoric and pressure to force negotiations.
The interesting part is that this time it is not strongman Kim Jong Un, but rather his younger sister, who is wielding the stick. Kim Yo Jong stepped on to the diplomatic scene when she became the first member of North Korea’s ruling family to set foot on South Korean soil during the PyeongChang Winter Olympic Games in February 2018. She was widely praised for her charm and dulcet tones. Later, she accompanied her brother to his summits with Trump, but was forced to briefly step down from the politburo because she was apportioned some of the blame for the failure of the Hanoi summit in February 2019.
The Kim regime seems to be adhering to its time-honored tradition of ratcheting up rhetoric to force negotiations.
Cornelia Meyer
Kim Yo Jong has now been reappointed to the politburo and this seems to be her time to shine. Experts give three reasons for the North Korean leadership having her deliver the messages. Firstly, the harsh words may be designed to endear her to the influential military (her brother used similar tactics when he was new to power). Secondly, when Kim Jong Un was out of sight for a short time, succession planning was widely discussed in the Western press. Her high profile may have been engineered to ensure that succession remains within the Kim family, should the supreme leader die prematurely (his father, Kim Jong Il, died of heart failure). Thirdly, it may be opportune to have the younger sister engage in belligerent talk in case of a revival of the detentes with South Korea and especially the US. It would allow Kim Jong Un to take a more statesmanlike position.
Be this as it may, the last few weeks on the Korean Peninsula should have taught us that, pandemic or no pandemic, we must not neglect the world’s geopolitical trouble spots because conflict can flare up in a second. What happens in North Korea matters. It is located amid one of the world’s most densely populated and affluent regions, which has a huge manufacturing base. The world at large has every interest in peace prevailing.
- Cornelia Meyer is a business consultant, macro-economist and energy expert. Twitter: @MeyerResources
