A quiet diplomacy: Intra-Afghan talks and the push for peace in Afghanistan
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Finally the last hurdles for starting already delayed intra-Afghan negotiations are being removed in a bid to end nearly two decades of war in Afghanistan.
President Ashraf Ghani’s recent announcement that the remaining 2,000 Taliban prisoners will be released soon set the stage for ending the deadlock. Taliban responded by saying talks could begin within a week once this last batch of Taliban prisoners are released. Earlier, the group had refused to engage in talks with rival Afghan groups, including the Ghani government, until their 5,000 prisoners were freed under the terms of the February 29 US-Taliban peace agreement signed in Doha, Qatar.
Ghani also called upon the Taliban to release the 1,000 Afghan government prisoners as agreed in the Doha agreement. The exchange of prisoners was initially to be completed by the ambitious target date of March 10 but didn’t happen due to disagreements between the Afghan government and Taliban. As a consequence, intra-Afghan negotiations were delayed.
Until now, Kabul has freed about 3,000 Taliban prisoners. Taliban have released more than 300.
The progress in paving the way for initiating intra-Afghan negotiations was made possible due to a quiet diplomacy followed by visible contacts between the main stakeholders. The surprise three-day unilateral ceasefire announced by the Taliban on May 24 on the occasion of Eidul Fitr was readily reciprocated by President Ghani. The marked reduction in violence, widely welcomed by Afghans, motivated Ghani to announce the release of the remaining Taliban prisoners as a gesture of goodwill to facilitate peace talks.
As violence dropped-- even though Taliban didn’t accept Kabul’s request for extension of ceasefire-- diplomatic moves were set in motion to take the peace process forward.
Zalmay Khalilzad, the US special representative for Afghanistan Reconciliation, embarked on yet another trip to the region on June 5 with stopovers in Qatar to meet Taliban negotiators led by Mullah Abdul Ghani Biradar, and Pakistan and Afghanistan for consultations on starting intra-Afghan dialogue.
It was apparently due to Khalilzad’s Islamabad visit that Pakistan Army chief General Qamar Javed Bajwa decided to urgently fly to Kabul on June 9 to meet Ghani to discuss the issue. He took along with him Lt. General Faiz Hameed, the head of Pakistan’s powerful Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI), and Mohammad Sadiq Khan, newly appointed special envoy for Afghanistan, to send a strong message that Islamabad was willing to do whatever possible to make a success of the Afghan peace process.
It was apparently due to Khalilzad’s Islamabad visit that Pakistan Army chief General Qamar Javed Bajwa decided to urgently fly to Kabul on June 9 to meet Ghani to discuss the issue. He took along with him Lt. General Faiz Hameed, the head of Pakistan’s powerful Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI), and Mohammad Sadiq Khan, newly appointed special envoy for Afghanistan, to send a strong message that Islamabad was willing to do whatever possible to make a success of the Afghan peace process.
Rahimullah Yusufzai
Pakistan has been faced with a dilemma as the Trump administration has wanted it to play a more active role in the Afghan peace process by using its links with the Taliban to persuade the group to accept a ceasefire and engage in talks with the Afghan government.
But Kabul has been suspicious of Islamabad’s intentions as it sees it as a supporter of Taliban and a sanctuary for the group’s leadership. It has been a difficult balancing act due to the uneasy relationship between the two neighbouring countries. And adding to the complexity of the situation is the India factor, as New Delhi is one of the biggest supporters of Kabul to rival Islamabad’s declining influence among Afghans, particularly the ruling elite.
Following General Bajwa and Khalilzad’s meetings with President Ghani, steps have been taken to start intra-Afghan negotiations.
Abdullah Abdullah, Ghani’s long-time electoral rival and now part of his new, power-sharing unity government as chairman of the newly created High Council for National Reconciliation to lead the peace process, received Dr. Mutlaq bin Majed Al-Qahtani, special envoy of the Foreign Minister of Qatar for Counterterrorism and Mediation of Conflict Resolution, in Kabul to discuss next steps.
Al-Qahtani has been a frequent visitor to Kabul as Qatar is playing a key role in the Afghan peace process. Its capital, Doha, has been hosting the Taliban Political Commission since 2010 and has been the venue for US-Taliban talks that stretched over 18 months. Doha will most likely also host most meetings during intra-Afghan negotiations. Virtual meetings can also be hosted if face-to-face meetings are difficult to hold due to the coronavirus pandemic.
As all sides are ready for intra-Afghan negotiations, the issues of agenda, dates and venue are now under consideration. The talks could begin as early as July once the prisoners’ exchange is complete to the satisfaction of the stakeholders.
Though the Afghan government in recent days accused the Taliban of stepping up attacks in the run-up to the peace talks, the violence can be checked through active diplomacy as the peace process is now a popular choice with Afghans and backed by all relevant powers.
There could be spoilers, such as Daesh which has stepped up attacks, and the talks could face frequent breakdowns-- but the peace effort is likely to continue despite formidable challenges along the way.
- Rahimullah Yusufzai is a senior political and security analyst in Pakistan. He was the first to interview Taliban founder Mullah Mohammad Omar and twice interviewed Osama Bin Laden in 1998. Twitter: @rahimyusufzai1
