Coronavirus and the transformation of global politics
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COVID-19 has proved to be a most devastating and widespread challenge to all states and societies. It is not yet possible to explain why one country may be hit harder than its neighbors or what factors keep the impact of the pandemic to a minimum.
These issues are currently dominating international politics, and the relations of states are being influenced by the imperatives of addressing the challenges produced by the virus. Current relations between the US and China are also adversely affected by the mutual trading of charges and countercharges on the origins and spread of the pandemic.
It is difficult to suggest how long the US and China will stay entangled in this blame game. But one can be confident in predicting that these issues will be overtaken by other issues as the world learns to keep the virus threat within manageable limits. Until that time, the current strategic rivalry between China and the US will be prominent on the global landscape.
If we go back to the history of the post-World War 2 period, the dominant themes of international politics have changed over time. Initially, the rivalry between the Soviet Union and the US was the single dominant theme of global politics from 1949-50 to 1989-90.
In these 40 years, this rivalry manifested differently in parts of the world and the pace and style of rivalry between these two super-powers changed with advancement in technology and weapons systems.
After the collapse of Eastern Europe (1989-90) and the Soviet Union (December 1991), the era of the triumph of Western democracy and liberal economics began with the pre-eminence of the US as the sole superpower. Some western writers described this as the end of history, that is, the historical development of political and social thinking for humanity reaching a point beyond which nothing new is left.
It is difficult to suggest how long the US and China will stay entangled in this blame game. But one can be confident in predicting that these issues will be overtaken by other issues as the world learns to keep the virus threat within manageable limits. Until that time, the current strategic rivalry between China and the US will be prominent on the global landscape.
Dr. Hasan Askari Rizvi
Western democracy and the free economy would continue to be the ultimate political and economic systems for the world, it was argued in the West. The US and other western countries began to support the notion of democracy, human rights, western capitalist economy at the global level. By the end of the 20th century, there was talk of globalization, which combined technological advancement in communication and information technology with free movement of goods, services, capital investment, ideas, and human beings across the territorial boundaries of the states.
Two developments became major obstacles to the realization of the dream of democracy, human rights, and globalization.
First, since September 2001, transnational terrorism emerged as the major threat to world order. Confident after the success in dislodging the Taliban government in Kabul in a military operation spread over about six weeks, and installing a pro-US government in Kabul, the US embarked on military intervention in Iraq in March 2003. It got rid of Saddam Hussein but in this process the state and society in Iraq were undermined.
Second, the ‘Arab Spring’ that comprised anti-government popular movements in some Arab countries showed that authoritarian governments could be knocked out. However, it did not produce pro-West democratic governments in the Arab world.
Now, COVID-19 has created a new global situation. Official circles in the US hold China responsible for unleashing the virus and this confrontation is expected to shape global politics in the years to come. However, China has a clear advantage over the US. Large numbers of American multinational corporations have installed their manufacturing units in China because of cheap labor. The Chinese state Chinese companies have invested funds in the US.
As a result, the Trump administration will not be able to impose American trade or an economic cut-off with regards to China. Further, China’s global economic connectivity under the Belt and Road Initiative has given Beijing a regular connectivity with Asia, Africa and Europe that is expected to outlive the coronavirus.
Another matter of concern for the champions of western democracy is that the Chinese experience has shown that a non-democratic but efficacious government that enjoys the confidence of people appears to stand a better chance to cope with massive calamities. It could be that western liberal democracy and globalization may no longer be attractive propositions for many countries.
In the post-coronavirus global system, China will be better placed to play a more active role in global politics until new factors emerge to replace what shapes global politics at the beginning of the third decade of the 21st century.
Despite overall American decline, the US will continue to be one of the lead players in global politics and the two competing powers will be China and the US. Other states will cluster around them or maintain an independent posture.
We are in for a changed international political landscape.
*Dr. Hasan Askari Rizvi is a Pakistan-based political analyst. Twitter: @har132har
