Conversations with stakeholders: Is the Afghan peace process showing signs of collapse?
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Last February’s peace agreement between the Taliban and the US raised the prospect of wholesome intra-Afghan negotiations which could bring an end to the decades old conflict. But how difficult will it be for the disparate political stakeholders, including hardline Taliban, to arrive at a consensus on formation of a national unity government that is representative, open and provides a level playing field for Afghans of all hues to thrive?
After all, Afghanistan needs an all-inclusive political system, capable of delivering governance at the sub-national level. In a freewheeling conversation, post-Doha deal, Ghulam Hassan Gran – senior adviser to the Afghan interior ministry, and parliament’s ex-secretary general – marked the obstacles in consensus building, including President Ashraf Ghani’s lack of overarching political influence, fragmented political opposition’s contradictory positions on dealing with Taliban, and divergence of opinion on the best suited governance structure for post-war Afghanistan.
As predicted by Gran, the peace process is already showing signs of collapse with Taliban fighters frequently ambushing Afghan government forces to achieve tactical superiority, that will enable them to have an upper hand in the yet to be launched intra-Afghan negotiations.
The Taliban leadership has also rejected outright Ghani’s appeal for a Ramadan ceasefire, calling it untenable in the backdrop of a lack of progress in prisoner release, as per the Doha agreement. Meanwhile, Washington is trying hard to broker peace – unprecedentedly linking all international aids to Afghanistan, which forms 80 per cent of the government’s annual budgetary allocations, to fixing the political stalemate urgently.
Former Afghan premier and Hezb-e-Islami-Afghanistan (HIA) founder-leader Gulbuddin Hekmatyar contends, nothing short of full implementation of the February peace deal – entailing release of Taliban prisoners – can break the logjam. The one-time Mujahideen commander did not hesitate to dig into a treasure trove of experiences to analyze the Taliban’s motivation.
Hekmatyar believes that neither the fear of heavy civilian casualties in Ramadan, nor the compulsions of the pandemic or global pressure can influence Taliban’s stand, because for them, establishing the Islamic Emirate is a religious obligation and not merely a struggle to achieve political power.
Besides, the Taliban has never halted offensive operations even in the midst of devastating natural calamities, Hekmatyar explains, adding that the real power of holding their fire rests with the stubborn and hardcore ground commanders, immune to circumstantial pulls and pressures.
For Afghanistan, this is a now or never opportunity to strike a peace accord internally. As Afghan High Peace Council’s Deputy Chair Habiba Sarabi candidly admits, peace for them goes beyond just stopping war. It is also about ensuring a democratic, free society for the future generation, especially womenfolk.
Seema Sengupta
Past experience of all hardline groups pardoning their adversaries after the Soviet withdrawal can be the benchmark for the Ghani administration, Hekmatyar feels, as he sees no reason for not fixing the issues of prisoner release and fine-tuning the composition of the peace delegation for intra-Afghan dialogue within a week’s time.
Notwithstanding the fact that Afghanistan’s myriad ethnic groups have never viewed themselves as fixed nationalities, the Afghans have a history of uniting at times of crisis, transcending all rivalries. Hekmatyar’s hope emanates from the very reality that conflict in Afghanistan never assumed an exclusively ethnic dimension throughout the country’s turbulent past. However, he does not fail to warn that Kabul will ignore Taliban at its own peril, since the hardline Islamist group holds the key to balancing ethnic relations, preventing a renewed conflict and withdrawing the incentive for violence.
For Afghanistan, this is a now or never opportunity to strike a peace accord internally. As Afghan High Peace Council’s Deputy Chair Habiba Sarabi candidly admits, peace for them goes beyond just stopping war. It is also about ensuring a democratic, free society for the future generation, especially womenfolk.
Interestingly, Taliban spokesperson Zabihullah Mujahid assured this author, with a caveat, that his leadership favors securing fundamental rights of all Afghans, irrespective of ethnicity, and ensures the right to work and education for women within an Islamic framework.
Today, the international community is supportive of engaging the Taliban to resolve the protracted conflict, as against the 2001 global consensus of pillorying Afghanistan.
Habiburrahman Hekmatyar, HIA leadership’s Chief of Staff underscored the importance of harnessing this opportunity to push through a just settlement that was acceptable to all. Even though the situation is complicated by Ghani and his arch-rival Abdullah Abdullah’s ongoing feud, with Abdullah proclaiming himself president too after a controversial election, there is an across-the-board desire for peace and rapprochement among today’s and one-time hardliners.
Even Zabihullah informed this author about his leadership’s denouncement of the Ghani-Abdullah tussle, which they felt was detrimental to the cause of unity. Habibur asserts there is no alternative to democracy in his country and bats for electoral reforms to introduce proportional representation.
Though the Taliban wants intra-Afghan negotiations to start soon, COVID-19 will likely cast its shadow, with social distancing hampering negotiations – as Sarabi pointed out. Moreover, Sarabi, a qualified hematologist, expressed serious concern over shortages of diagnostic kits, ventilators, hospital beds and protective gear, while Habibur pointed out how poverty, overcrowded marketplaces and large, multigenerational households can hasten viral penetration. Therefore, making tribal leadership and religious figures the fulcrum of the awareness campaign will work wonders. Most worryingly, this epidemic – as Habibur indicated – will affect developmental financing badly, due to the global economic downturn.
- Seema Sengupta is a Calcutta based journalist and columnist