Focus: How bad is the recession and how to restart free-market economies?

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Updated 06 April 2020
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Focus: How bad is the recession and how to restart free-market economies?

What happened:

Global stock markets slid last week; the center of the outbreak was shifted from Europe to the US. European markets were sharply up mid-morning on Monday as the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) crisis started to abate in the worst-hit countries of Italy, Spain and France.
This shifted the discourse to how to restart the economies. Many economists have called for an exit plan to the shutdown.
Last week oil displayed an extraordinary rally on a tweet by US President Donald Trump explaining that he had spoken to both Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and Russian President Vladimir Putin to end their war for market share. He floated a production cut of 10-15 million barrels per day (bpd). The oil price came down, when the OPEC+ meeting was postponed from April 6 to April 9.


Why it happened:


The Monday rally reflected optimism on the COVID-19 outbreak subsiding in the worst-affected European nations, as the pandemic focus shifted to the UK and the US.
St. Louis Federal Reserve President James Bullard said that the US economy was not in freefall and that it would recover swiftly after the lockdown had ended. However, he was criticized by the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, Tom Barkin, who considered unemployment to be the big issue and predicted an increase of another 10-20 million in jobless claims. He compared the jump of 10 million over the last two weeks to the hitherto highest in 1982, which stood at 700,000.
An optimistic J.P. Morgan note that slowing case numbers globally would put a floor under equity markets, was not shared by all. Larry Kudlow, economic adviser to Trump, stressed his confidence in a speedy recovery, because the federal government had an extensive loan scheme for business ($500 million for big business and $350 million for small- and medium-sized enterprises) and that the government would make direct payments to 175 million Americans.
The question is, however, whether this will be enough in a crisis with a remaining lack of visibility over its duration. A lot will depend on how quickly and efficiently the direct payments and loans can be disbursed in a system which is not set up to deal with measures of this magnitude.

 

Where we go from here:


The real question behind any economic recovery will be how to restart the economy and how to deal with structural changes.
Most free-market economies in the OECD (Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development) have issued the largest fiscal and monetary stimulus packages in history, turning overnight these laissez-faire, free market economies into something resembling state-run economies.
These structural changes will have ramifications for economic activity, especially as one looks at unwinding the debt which will have accrued in many companies during the crisis. The big issue will not just be how to restart the economies, but how or if to go back to a free-market system.
As for the OPEC++ meeting, it looks as though Saudi Arabia and Russia are nearing a compromise. The question here will be who else is willing to share the pain of production cuts — and particularly what the US will do? The other question is, how big will the cuts have to be to have a sustained impact on price? This is hard to gauge while there is no clear indication of how many barrels per day demand has actually dropped off.


— Cornelia Meyer is a Ph.D.-level economist with 30 years of experience in investment banking and industry. She is chairman and CEO of business consultancy Meyer Resources.Twitter: @MeyerResources


Saudi Arabia takes part in 3rd annual international Camel Parade in Paris

Updated 1 min 55 sec ago
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Saudi Arabia takes part in 3rd annual international Camel Parade in Paris

  • This year’s event celebrates decision by the UN Food and Agriculture Organization to designate 2024 as International Year of Camelids
  • Saudi representatives will highlight role of the Kingdom in promoting the value of camels as a cultural symbol associated with Saudi society since ancient times

RIYADH: Saudi Arabia will take part in a special Camel Parade in France on Saturday, in celebration of the UN’s decision to designate 2024 as International Year of Camelids.

The event in Paris has been organized by the French Federation for the Development of Camelids in France and Europe, under the umbrella of the International Camel Organization, and is sponsored by the Saudi Ministry of Culture and the Kingdom’s Camel Club.

This is the third year in a row in which the event has taken place. The participants in the parade of camels, llamas, alpacas and other members of the camelid family of creatures are expected to include more than 50 representatives of camel-related organizations from more than 30 countries, along with camel breeders, government officials, others with an interest in the animals, and entertainers from various branches of the performing arts.

In addition to Saudi Arabia, the countries that will be represented include the US, the UAE, Qatar, Oman, Bahrain, Canada, India, Morocco, Tanzania, Peru, Algeria, the Czech Republic, Pakistan, Tunisia, Austria, Spain, Burundi, Senegal, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Mauritania, France, Sudan, Chad, Angola, the UK and Uganda.

Saudi representatives will highlight the role of the Kingdom in promoting the value of camels as a cultural symbol that has been associated with Saudi society since ancient times and “still enjoys great prestige,” the Saudi Press Agency reported.

On Friday, the eve of the parade, public discussions took place at the Chateau de Janvry’s historical center about cultural heritage associated with camels around the world and the specific contributions by participating countries to the annual event in Paris.

The parade will be followed by a reception for invited guests, including representatives of the participating countries, international organizations, academia, research centers and the private sector, the SPA reported.

The UN Food and Agriculture Organization named 2024 as International Year of Camelids to honor and promote the sector and highlight the important role it plays in efforts to achieve food security and economic growth in many countries.

 

 


Huge blast at military base used by Iraqi Popular Mobilization Forces, army sources say

Updated 3 min 49 sec ago
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Huge blast at military base used by Iraqi Popular Mobilization Forces, army sources say

BAGHDAD: A huge blast rocked a military base used by Iraq’s Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) to the south of Baghdad late on Friday, army sources told Reuters.

 


Saudi assistant defense minister holds talks with Pakistan Army chiefs in Islamabad

Updated 20 April 2024
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Saudi assistant defense minister holds talks with Pakistan Army chiefs in Islamabad

RIYADH: Saudi Arabia’s assistant minister of defense, Talal Al-Otaibi, on Friday held talks with top officials from the Pakistan Army during an official visit to Islamabad.

He reviewed relations between the two countries during meetings with the commander of the army, Gen. Syed Asim Munir, the head of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Gen. Sahir Shamshad Mirza, and the chief of the general staff, Gen. Muhammad Avais Dastgir.

The Saudi-Pakistani Committee also met during Al-Otaibi’s visit. Its members discussed cooperation between the nations in the field of defense, including research and development, and the transfer and localization of technology, in line with the goals of Kingdom’s Vision 2030 development and diversification plan.


Saudi chair of IMFC acknowledges impact of global crises, says they should be discussed in other forums

Updated 20 April 2024
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Saudi chair of IMFC acknowledges impact of global crises, says they should be discussed in other forums

  • Thanks expressed to outgoing chair Nadia Calvino for her leadership

RIYADH: The International Monetary and Financial Committee on Friday held its biannual meeting in Washington DC to discuss the global macroeconomic and financial impact of current conflicts.

The IMFC members focused on the war in Ukraine, the humanitarian crisis in Gaza, and shipping disruptions in the Red Sea, said Mohammed Al-Jadaan, the Saudi minister of finance and the body’s chair.

Al-Jadaan said IMFC members acknowledged that the crises had significant impacts on the global economy, but added that the body was not the forum to resolve geopolitical and security issues, and that they should be discussed in other forums.

He said: “The IMFC’s role is to advise and report on the supervision and management of the international monetary and financial system. This includes responses to events that may disrupt the system.

“Of course, the world and the IMF (International Monetary Fund) itself have faced multiple global disruptions over the last few years. Prospects are improving, which is very positive, but numerous challenges remain, and we need to be vigilant and ready to address them. Today’s era must not be of war and conflict.”

The Saudi minister chairs the IMFC, the policy advisory body to the IMF’s board of governors, and was speaking during the committee’s gathering at the Spring Meetings of the IMF and World Bank.

The IMFC thanked outgoing chair Nadia Calvino for her leadership and welcomed Al-Jadaan as her replacement.

Al-Jadaan said: “A soft landing for the global economy appears to be drawing closer.

“Economic activity has proved more resilient than expected in many parts of the world, though it continues to diverge across countries.”

But as ongoing conflicts continue to burden the global economy, this has led to some weak growth prospects in the medium term.

Al-Jadaan said: “Even though inflation has fallen in most regions, owing to the unwinding of supply shocks and the effects of tight monetary policy, its persistence warrants caution.

“While risks to the outlook are now broadly balanced, downside risks remain, hinging on the near-term paths for inflation and interest rates, asset prices and financial stability, fiscal policy actions, as well as geopolitical developments.”

Other pressing challenges were also affecting the global economy, such as climate change, elevated debt vulnerabilities, rising inequality, and the risk of geoeconomic fragmentation, he added.

The Saudi minister said: “Against this background, our policy priorities are to achieve price stability, strengthen fiscal sustainability, and safeguard financial stability, while promoting inclusive and sustainable growth.

“We will proceed with rebuilding fiscal buffers, carefully tailoring actions to country-specific circumstances, while protecting the most vulnerable and growth-enhancing investment.”

Al-Jadaan said central banks remained strongly committed to achieving price stability and would continue to communicate policy objectives to help limit negative spillovers.

He added: “We continue working to address data, supervisory, and regulatory gaps in the financial sector, especially nonbank financial institutions, where relevant, and stand ready to deploy macroprudential policy tools to mitigate systemic risks.”

He said the IMF stresses the importance of international cooperation to improve the resilience of the global economy and the international monetary system, adding that members will “act collectively, as appropriate, to support climate and digital transitions, including artificial intelligence, while accounting for country-specific circumstances.”

During the meeting, which was held in the presence of the IMF’s Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva, Al-Jadaan reiterated the IMF’s commitments on exchange rates, addressing excessive global imbalances, governance, and avoiding protectionist measures.

He said: “We will also continue working together to strengthen the global financial safety net, address global debt vulnerabilities (and support) vulnerable countries as they undertake reforms to tackle their vulnerabilities and address their financing needs.”

Al-Jadaan also said the IMF would continue its “critical and catalytic role in providing financial assistance to help members address their balance of payments problems and achieve economic stability and inclusive growth.”

He added that the body was looking to welcome a new 25th chair on the IMF’s Executive Board for Sub-Saharan Africa in November to improve representation and the overall balance of regional representation.

He said: “We support the IMF’s strengthened efforts to attract and develop talent to support existing and new priority areas, and to further improve staff diversity and inclusion, responding to the specific challenges identified in the FY2022-FY2023 Diversity and Inclusion Report.”

He also announced that the next IMFC 24 members’ meeting was expected to be held in October. Representatives usually meet twice a year, at the Bank-Fund Annual and Spring Meetings, to outline the proposed agenda for the IMF’s work program.


KL Rahul shines as Lucknow Super Giants beat Chennai Super Kings in IPL

Updated 20 April 2024
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KL Rahul shines as Lucknow Super Giants beat Chennai Super Kings in IPL

  • Innings played key role in pushing Lucknow past Chennai’s 176-6 with six balls to spare.

LUCKNOW: KL Rahul’s solid 82 runs off 53 balls helped Lucknow Super Giants comfortably beat Chennai Super Kings by eight wickets in the IPL on Friday.
Rahul’s time at the crease, which saw him smash nine fours and three sixes, played a key role in pushing Lucknow past Chennai’s 176-6 with six balls to spare.
“I felt that if we bat well, we could chase it down... when your partnership goes on, you can take a few more chances. Glad that it happened,” said Rahul.
Chennai got off to a slightly jittery start after being invited to bat first, losing Rachin Ravindra (zero) and skipper Ruturaj Gaikwad (17) in the first five overs. Ajinkya Rahane looked to steady the side, with the help of Ravindra Jadeja, but fell in the ninth over after racking up a respectable 36 runs off 24 balls.
Lucknow’s clinical bowling restricted Chennai in the middle overs, with Shivam Dube (three) not being able to pop off.
But Jadeja soldiered on for the rest of the game, getting his half-century in the seventeenth over.
Reliable warhorse M.S. Dhoni, who smacked 28 runs off 9 balls, helped Chennai turn up the heat in the last three overs and pushed the team to 176-6.
Lucknow openers Quinton de Kock and KL Rahul set up the chase with a superb 134-run partnership, before de Kock, who hit five fours in his 43-ball 54, fell in the fifteenth over.
Rahul went onto smash an incredible 82 runs off 53 balls before being dismissed in the eighteenth over. A final push by Nicholas Pooran (23) helped seal the victory for Lucknow.
“We lost wickets regularly and were 10-15 short,” said Gaikwad.
“Good to play them again soon, will come back with homework done.”