Critical issues with Afghan deal must be addressed, and now
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The unannounced visit by US Secretary of State, Mike Pompeo to Afghanistan earlier this week came at a critical time as the Taliban-US peace agreement signed in Doha on Feb. 29 has been facing implementation challenges.
The ambitious timeline of March 10 under the terms of the agreement for the exchange of 6,000 prisoners and start of intra-Afghan negotiations has already been missed.
Pompeo’s arrival in Kabul on March 22 helped raise the level of US engagement with Afghan stakeholders to focus on unresolved issues threatening the fragile peace process. He was expected to reinforce US special envoy Zalmay Khalilzad’s efforts to salvage the peace agreement.
However, the visit failed to resolve the political crisis resulting from the contested presidential election that is holding up intra-Afghan dialogue and delaying the prisoners’ swap. Pompeo met Ghani and his electoral rival Abdullah Abdullah separately and together, but was unable to end their feud. He reacted by announcing a $1bn cut in US aid to Afghanistan this year and an equal amount next year plus a review to identify additional reductions. His anger was clearly visible when he said Ghani and Abdullah’s failure to reconcile had harmed relations between their countries and dishonored Afghans, Americans and coalition partners who sacrificed their lives and treasure for Afghanistan.
In contrast to Pompeo’s rather unpleasant meetings in Kabul, his interaction with the Taliban deputy leader Mullah Abdul Ghani Biradar in Doha appeared to be friendly and useful as both sides pledged to abide by the peace agreement. Pompeo maintained the reduction in violence was real as US-led NATO forces have faced no Taliban attacks since the signing of the deal. This amounted to giving credit to Taliban for abiding by the terms of the agreement.
Still, continued Taliban attacks against Afghan security forces all over Afghanistan except in urban centers has remained an issue of concern. But a permanent ceasefire can only be discussed once intra-Afghan negotiations take place.
Another critical issue is the rising number of COVID-19 cases amid fears of an outbreak that would overwhelm Afghanistan’s inadequate public health system. That would change priorities as the immediate task then would be to control the pandemic.
Pompeo’s visit was a repeat of Secretary of State John Kerry’s initiative in late 2014 when he stayed in Kabul until he persuaded Ghani and Abdullah to share power in a national unity government for the next five years. That election too was bitterly contested as both had claimed victory amid concern that the situation could turn violent. Though the power-sharing made decision making difficult as the government had two centers of power, the deal helped end the political crisis and forestalled violence.
The low turnout in the presidential election held on Sept. 28, 2019 and the unimpressive number of votes polled by Ghani and Abdullah necessitated the need for broadening the base of the new government and putting up a united front during tough negotiations with the Taliban.
President Trump appears to be losing patience with the Afghan leadership, which is competing for power instead of focusing on the peace process. The reduction in US aid to Afghanistan is the first step towards gradual disengagement. As the biggest giver of economic and military assistance, the US has more leverage over Kabul than any other country and neither Ghani nor Abdullah can afford losing its support.
Rahimullah Yusufzai
Though both Ghani and Abdullah ruled out power-sharing for another term, such a possibility exists. Ghani claims greater legitimacy after being declared the winner by Afghanistan’s Independent Election Commission, but eventually he could agree to share power with Abdullah without conceding the 50 percent seats in the cabinet that Abdullah’s nominees got after the 2014 presidential election.
Abdullah will have to settle for whatever comes his way as there is no chance he will be declared the president.
The Trump administration is in a dilemma as it doesn’t want to remain involved in Afghan politics, but has to intervene to prevent political chaos that could delay the withdrawal of its forces from Afghanistan. The US has opposed Abdullah’s move to form a parallel government and granted legitimacy to the Ghani presidency, but it still wants the latter to look into election irregularities and patch up with Abdullah.
President Trump appears to be losing patience with the Afghan leadership, which is competing for power instead of focusing on the peace process. The reduction in US aid to Afghanistan is the first step towards gradual disengagement. As the biggest giver of economic and military assistance, the US has more leverage over Kabul than any other country and neither Ghani nor Abdullah can afford losing its support.
The coronavirus pandemic has inserted a new factor into Afghanistan’s uncertain situation. Though the infections are stated to be a little over 100, the figures may not convey the true picture due to the small number of testing being done.
Health experts fear the contagion is spreading as a large number of Afghans have returned home from coronavirus-hit Iran in recent weeks. This has necessitated the need for releasing prisoners from Afghanistan’s overcrowded prisons.
As the US too is reeling from the impact of COVID-19 amid estimates that its economy may shrink by 25 percent, it is hard to imagine Washington continuing to commit billions of dollars yearly to Afghanistan, particularly to the security forces that sustain the Afghan government in power and are supposed to keep Taliban at bay.
– Rahimullah Yusufzai is a senior political and security analyst in Pakistan. He was the first to interview Taliban founder Mullah Mohammad Omar and twice interviewed Osama Bin Laden in 1998.
Twitter: @rahimyusufzai1
