The (automatic) door opens on a post-pandemic world
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Our generation is lucky to have witnessed the fourth global economic, social and business earthquake in so many decades. First was the end of the Cold War and the opening up of China. Then came the Internet. A decade later it was smart phones. And now the coronavirus. The world has been on a rollercoaster since 1989.
When asked about the impact of the 1789 French revolution on world history, China’s former communist leader Chairman Mao was famously quoted by former US Secretary of State Henry Kissinger as saying: “It is too early to tell.” (This quote was later refuted as a translation mistake. However, the original version was the one mostly remembered by political historians.)
Is it too early to tell whether China will overtake the US as the world leader? Too early to tell if the EU will survive the one-two punch of Brexit and the coronavirus border shutdown within the space of a few months? Too early to predict how global supply chains will change and the extent to which production centers will shift out of China and closer to home.
Also, will the current academic year reshape the education system and free the mass capital caught in education campuses and the millions of hours lost during rush-hour traffic? And it is too early to tell how far health care will evolve to help eliminate the long waits at family clinics?
That said, and putting Mao’s long march of history aside, there are many changes closer to home that will reshape travel, tourism and our retail and shopping malls experiences.
Transcontinental tourism will take a major hit as travelers choose to stay closer to home. Destinations that have invested heavily in massive shopping centers, exhibition halls, casinos, theme parks and other aspects of the mass tourism ecosystem will face challenging times restoring their historical occupancy rates and seasonal footfalls.
Cruise ships that were the preferred choice for North American retirees will have a tough time convincing people to get back on board. The US CDC (Centers for Disease Control and Prevention) confirmed that more than 700 American passengers became infected with coronavirus on the Diamond Princess and Grand Princess liners. Operators will have to rebuild the confidence of customers and regulators by installing reliable measures to protect passengers from viruses.
The same will apply to theme parks, ski resorts and sports stadiums. Virus screening equipment might have to be installed at gates right before metal detectors. The GEs, Siemens, and Philips of this world will enjoy a demand upswing that will be rivaled only by the one enjoyed by disinfectant producers. Sixty percent alcohol concentration disinfecting dispensers will become standard in cars, on public transport, in hotels, on planes and in every space shared with strangers.
Virus screening machines will become part of travel requirements and will be installed at airports before passengers move through the security screening machines deployed after the 9/11 attacks. Probably earlier versions of virus screening will be performed in labs with results reported to airlines and a “virus-free” field added to boarding passes.
Families, fearing virus exposure and potential border lockdowns, will opt for vacations closer to home. Consequently, regional airlines will fare better at the expense of long-haul fleets that have dominated the scene for the past 15 years.
The International Air Transport Association expects the current crisis to shave more than $250 billion off airline industry revenues. Airlines will be forced to merge and downsize and may require massive bailouts, while some might file for bankruptcy. US airlines have already asked for cash handouts, not subsidized loans. Remember when American airlines wanted to sue Gulf carriers for alleged government subsidies?
Governments will soon request health data of all inbound international passengers in the same way criminal records and terrorism suspects’ data are today shared by airlines and security agencies. This will have implications on ease and affordability of travel as additional costs are passed on to passengers. Open skies, open borders and visa on arrival will require health data clearance.
Air-filters technology used in apartment blocks and public spaces will be upgraded to secure elimination of 99 percent of airborne viruses. So, your apartment AC air filter will be as efficient as the ones installed on a Boeing Dreamliner. Virus-eliminating air filters will become part of building codes. Imagine the increase in demand and wealth to be generated by installing these filters into every closed structure and public transportation vehicle.
Manually opened doors in public spaces, shops, public toilets and every other area will soon be something of the past. Hand dryers in public toilets must also kill viruses either with ultraviolet rays or disinfectant mixed with the blow dryer’s air. There must be no room for the viruses to survive.
And, finally, who said that a firm handshake is a sign of self-confidence? Not anymore.
• Tarek Ayntrazi is founder and CEO of Generation C.
