Big Oil may have to break dividend taboo as debt spirals

Chevron was the only one to reduce its debt last year. (Reuters/File)
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Updated 26 March 2020
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Big Oil may have to break dividend taboo as debt spirals

  • Shell prides itself on not cutting its dividend since the 1940s, but some investors think that might soon change

LONDON: The world’s biggest oil and gas firms should break an industry taboo and consider cutting dividends, rather than taking on any more debt to maintain payouts as they weather the fallout from the coronavirus pandemic, investors say.

The top five so-called oil majors have avoided reducing dividends for years to keep investors sweet and added a combined $25 billion to debt levels in 2019 to maintain capital spending, while giving back billions to shareholders.

The strategy was designed to maintain the appeal of oil company stocks as investors came under increased pressure from climate activists to ditch the shares and help the world move faster toward meeting carbon emissions targets.

Now this strategy is at risk. Oil prices have slumped 60 percent since January to below $30 a barrel as demand collapsed because of the pandemic and as a battle for customers between Saudi Arabia and Russia threatened to flood the market with crude.

“Long term, it is appropriate to cut the dividend. We are not in favor of raising debt to support the dividend,” said Jeffrey Germain, a director at Brandes Investment Partners, whose portfolio includes several European oil firms.

The combined debt of Chevron, Total, BP , Exxon Mobile and Royal Dutch Shell stood at $231 billion in 2019, just shy of the $235 billion hit in 2016 when oil prices also tumbled below $30 a barrel.

Chevron was the only one to reduce its debt last year.

The latest collapse in oil prices has sent energy companies reeling, just as they were recovering from the last crash, which saw crude plummet from $115 a barrel in 2014 to $27 in 2016.

Companies from Exxon to Shell have announced plans to cut spending and suspend share buyback programs to balance their books and prevent already elevated debt levels from ballooning.

None has announced any plans to cut dividends so far.

Shell, which paid $15 billion in dividends last year, has never cut its dividend since the 1940s. This week it announced plans to slash capital spending by $5 billion.

But with the highest debt pile among rivals of $81 billion at the end of 2019 and an elevated debt-to-capital ratio, known as gearing, some investors say Shell might have to halve its dividend.

“The measures taken by Shell seem to be sufficient but, over time, if Shell (for instance) does not spend enough capital expenditure then production will start to fall and the underlying cash flow will not be sufficient to sustain the dividend long term,” said Jonathan Waghorn, co-manager of the Guinness Global Energy Fund.

Even if oil prices recover to the low $40s a barrel, oil majors’ debt would rise to levels that are too high by 2021, said Morgan Stanley analyst Martijn Rats.

“Much remains uncertain, but if commodity markets evolve as expected, we think European majors will start to reduce dividends in the second half of 2020,” Rats said.

BP, which last cut its dividend in the wake of the 2010 Deepwater Horizon rig explosion, has yet to announce a detailed plan to weather the crisis. BP declined to comment.

“Given all the negatives, I see no long-term downside to cutting the dividend temporarily and, once circumstances change, raise it accordingly,” said Darren Sissons, portfolio manager at Campbell, Lee & Ross, speaking about major oil companies.

The dividend yield — the ratio of the dividend to the share price — on oil company stocks has soared in recent weeks following the collapse in crude prices, hitting levels not seen in decades.


Magrabi opens new complex in Makkah

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Magrabi opens new complex in Makkah

RIYADH: With a new branch in Makkah, Magrabi Hospitals and Centers are expanding to more Saudi cities to meet the growing demand for specialized ophthalmological and dentistry care.

Minister of Health Fahad Al-Jalajel inaugurated the medical complex and one-day surgery center in the holy city, accompanied by Magrabi Hospitals and Centers CEO Mutasim Alireza, the Group’s Deputy CEO and Cheif Operating Officer Abdulrahman Barzangi, and several officials and dignitaries.

Al-Jalajel underscored that the opening reflects the Kingdom’s commitment to enhancing the quality of its healthcare services and transitioning toward a more comprehensive and integrated healthcare system.


UAE records 64% surge in trademark registrations

Updated 6 min 27 sec ago
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UAE records 64% surge in trademark registrations

RIYADH: The UAE recorded an annual 64 percent surge in trademark registrations, amounting to 4,610 in the first quarter of 2024, official data showed.

The figures, released by the nation’s Ministry of Economy, reveal the notable increase from 2,813 signups in the same period of 2023. 

March emerged as a particularly prolific period, with 2,018 new brands reported.

The trademarks registered during this time span a wide range of key sectors, including smart technology, transportation, food and beverage and pharmaceuticals as well as medical devices, finance, real estate, and more. 

The preceding months of January and February collectively accounted for 2,592 trademarks, further highlighting sustained growth and momentum in registrations.

As the country continues to position itself as a global business hub, trademark registrations serve as a crucial indicator of economic vitality and innovation-driven growth.

In a release on X, the ministry noted on April 17 that it has: “Worked on developing the trademark registration service, using the latest technologies and innovative solutions to achieve higher efficiency and better interaction with clients.”

The UAE’s adherence to international treaties and agreements further strengthens its trademark registration regime. 

By adhering to agreements like the Paris Convention for the Protection of Industrial Property and the Agreement on Trade-Related Aspects of Intellectual Property Rights or TRIPS, the UAE facilitates international trademark registration and enforcement, empowering businesses to broaden their operations across borders.

The nation has further established mechanisms for enforcing trademark rights and combating infringement. 

These include civil remedies, such as damages, injunctions, and seizure of infringing goods, as well as criminal penalties for trademark counterfeiting and piracy.


Saudi EXIM Bank inks deal with Swiss counterpart to elevate trade exchange 

Updated 34 min 51 sec ago
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Saudi EXIM Bank inks deal with Swiss counterpart to elevate trade exchange 

RIYADH: Saudi EXIM Bank and its Swiss counterpart have signed an agreement to boost the Kingdom’s non-oil exports, enhancing their global market competitiveness. 

In an X post following the deal, the Saudi lender stated that the reinsurance agreement with the Swiss Export Credit Agency was signed in Zurich. 

This development follows Saudi EXIM’s signing of reinsurance treaties with a consortium of global reinsurers led by Swiss Re in Zurich. These agreements will expand global insurance operations in collaboration with the world’s largest reinsurers and provide insurance coverage to support the growth of Saudi exporters in global markets. 

The trade relationship between Saudi Arabia and Switzerland has been robust, with exports from the Kingdom to the European nation totaling $810.67 million in 2023, according to the UN’s database on international trade.  

The Kingdom’s primary exports to Switzerland included pearls, precious metals, and aluminum, valued at $587.57 million and $139.39 million, respectively.  

On the other hand, Swiss exports to Saudi Arabia amounted to $6.77 billion in 2023. 

In October 2023, Saad Al-Khalb, CEO of EXIM Bank, told Arab News that the main mandate of the financial institution is to support the Kingdom’s economy and flow of goods, trades, infrastructure and long-term projects. 

In January, the Saudi lender also signed an agreement with its US counterpart to boost cooperation and help strengthen economic and trade relations between the two countries.  

The total value of credit facilities implemented by the EXIM Bank in 2023 reached $4.39 billion, exceeding its annual target by 33 percent, the Saudi Press Agency reported. 

This figure represents 5.2 percent of the total financial arrangements for the Kingdom’s non-oil outbound trade. 


March data reveals slight dip in Dubai’s inflation

Updated 47 min 46 sec ago
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March data reveals slight dip in Dubai’s inflation

RIYADH: Dubai’s inflation witnessed a slight decrease in March, dropping to 3.34 percent compared to 3.36 percent in February, according to official data.

The decline in inflation is attributed to lower prices of specific goods and services, notably in the food and transportation sectors.

Dubai’s Consumer Price Index rose to 110.77 points in March, compared to 110.50 points in the previous month, due to the rise in prices of key expenditure groups and services, including insurance and financial services by 8.67 percent, housing, water, electricity, gas, and fuel by 6.34 percent, and education by 3.62 percent.

However, despite the overall decrease in annual inflation, some sectors experienced price hikes. These areas included transportation, which witnessed a 1.75 percent increase, and housing, water, electricity, gas, and fuel, which saw a 0.58 percent increase.

Speaking to Arab News, economist and policy adviser Mahmoud Khairy highlighted that inflation affects sectors differently based on various factors such as economic structure and market dynamics.

“The most prominent and immediate effect of inflation is on consumption, potentially reducing consumers’ purchasing power and altering spending patterns,” he said.

Khairy also emphasized the sensitivity of the housing and real estate markets to inflationary changes in the Gulf Cooperation Council region. 

“Construction costs and property values may increase which will put extra burden on financing needs,” he added.

In addition to the decrease in inflation, food and beverage prices in Dubai in March decreased by 0.36 percent, along with drops in furniture prices by 0.06 percent and information and communication by 0.02 percent. 

The cost of restaurants and hotels also decreased by 2.15 percent, while prices of insurance and financial services lowered by only 0.08 percent.

In neighboring Saudi Arabia, inflation also fell in March, registering a rate of 1.6 percent compared to 1.8 percent the previous month. 

Shifts in the food and beverage sector primarily drove the decline.

Khairy explained that inflation expectations influence consumer behavior, similar to preparing for a weather forecast.

“When people expect prices to rise, they often rush to buy things sooner to avoid paying more later,” he said.

Investors closely monitor inflation, tweaking portfolios based on their predictions. Similarly, policymakers and central banks rely on inflation expectations to steer the economy, akin to checking weather forecasts for planning. 

Earlier last week, IMF chief Kristalina Georgieva remarked on the importance of central bankers meticulously adjusting their interest rate reduction strategies in response to incoming data. 

Regarding challenges and opportunities for GCC economies, Khairy noted the reliance on oil revenues, currency pegs to the US dollar, and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East as factors influencing inflation and economic stability.

“Disruptions to global supply chains due to geopolitical tensions or trade disputes can lead to supply shortages and price increases, contributing to inflationary pressures,” he said.

The World Bank said in a report that “GCC countries are small open economies with high dependence on international trade which makes them vulnerable to global shocks in addition to domestic ones.” 

Khairy also emphasized the importance of economic diversification efforts and strategic infrastructure investments to mitigate the impact of external shocks on inflation and promote overall financial stability in the region.

He concluded that higher inflation poses challenges for government budgets and financing.

“As prices increase, governments face a higher fiscal deficit to achieve just the same level of consumption and investment. On the other hand, inflation is always associated with higher interest rates which increases the cost of financing for government debt,” he said.


Madinah airport claims top spot in Middle East regional ranking 

Updated 57 min 7 sec ago
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Madinah airport claims top spot in Middle East regional ranking 

RIYADH: Saudi Arabia’s Prince Mohammad bin Abdulaziz International Airport in Madinah has been awarded the title of the best regional airbase in the Middle East for 2024. 

The recognition was announced during the Skytrax World Airport Awards, held at the Passenger Terminal EXPO in Frankfurt. 

Meanwhile, Qatar’s Hamad International Airport claimed the title of the world’s best aviation hub for the year, while Singapore Changi Airport, previously named the airport of the year in 2023 and a winner on 12 occasions in the past, secured the second position in the global ranking. 

Changi Airport also earned recognition as the top airbase in Asia and for delivering the world’s best immigration services, as per Skytrax. 

Meanwhile, Seoul Incheon Airport, advancing to third place in the global survey rankings, was awarded the title of the world’s most family-friendly terminal for 2024.