Implications of an India-Pakistan arms race
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Pakistan has to balance its defense expenditure on the basis of a perceived Indian threat and the spillover of the Afghan conflict. It has to keep the overall state of the economy figured in its planning calculus. It also factors its reliance on nuclear capability that acts as a balancer for the disparity in conventional forces with India.
Pakistan has developed a fairly modest indigenous capability and many of the indigenous military equipment and systems are in its current inventory. But there are times when due to an impending threat the armed forces want to induct a weapon system as early as possible. And the gestation period of developing a new weapon system or equipment is generally longer than straight purchases.
Furthermore, certain sophisticated weapons and systems are beyond Pakistan’s capability. With India-Pakistan hostility at its peak, the military would like that the formations have the full complement of weapons and equipment.
These compelling factors lead to foreign purchases of military equipment by Pakistan. Alternatively, the cost of indigenously produced weapons and military equipment depends on the numbers of the item to be produced, additional facilities in plant and machinery that have to be installed and the cost of technology transfer. Setting up facilities for manufacture invariably take time, and the gestation period stretching from the conceptual and planning stage to the manufacturing and delivery of military hardware is fairly long. In view of the two front and even three front deployment by Pakistan, when insurgency in the country was at its peak in the 80s, 90s and 2000’s, the military’s requirements increased manifold.
There are several countries that have integrated the private sector in defense production and have institutionalized interaction at regular intervals. The US, Sweden and Germany are classic examples of the success of the private sector. In these countries, the private sector is producing highly sophisticated weapon systems, making these nations leaders in research and development. Singapore, Malaysia, Indonesia and India also have robust defense industries, producing fairly advanced military hardware and software. Most of these foreign firms are producing both military and civilian products and thereby optimizing their output and reducing overhead costs.
Pakistan has tried to involve the private sector in defense production but at present its contribution has been modest and is expected to broaden as its industrial and technological base widens. Current procedures for participation of the private sector also need to be simplified and rehashed to make them more attractive. The cross flow of technologies from the defense to the civil sector provides a stimulus to technological development of a country. Keeping technologies and sophisticated industrial practices under wraps-- which is the general trend-- is counterproductive and lends to the underutilization of national resources. The defense economy should be directed in a way that it becomes the engine of growth rather than a drain on the national economy.
It is indeed unfortunate that both India and Pakistan spend a substantial portion of their budgets on defense. In fact, to this end, Pakistan spends nearly 4 percent of its GDP. But with India’s aggressive designs and its refusal to engage in dialogue there is no choice left for Pakistan except to develop credible conventional and strategic deterrence.
Talat Masood
According to Stockholm International Peace Institute, Pakistan is the world's 11th biggest arms importer. But compared to where import figures stood in the previous five years, arms purchases from abroad are decreasing and indigenous production is increasing.
Pakistan in the early years of its inception was closely aligned with the US and was a member of major defense pacts- SEATO, the Bagdad Pact-- and was also a recipient of military hard and software under American aid.
After the 1965 conflict with India, the US and major arms producing countries placed stringent embargoes on sale of military equipment and suspended aid. As they would deny purchases, Pakistan had to resort to buying from clandestine sources that would cost more and the quality of equipment was generally not guaranteed. But the withdrawal of assistance turned to Pakistan's long term advantage, to incentivize indigenous production and diversify sources of military procurement. China then became the primary source of the supply of military equipment and technology and was considered a more reliable, long term ally.
Pakistan’s increasing reliance on China has led to the standardization of its military inventory.
When the China–Pakistan collaboration started in 1966, Chinese military hardware and technology was relatively a generation or two behind the US. It has since gradually improved. The most significant aspect of this relationship was that China assisted Pakistan in developing its indigenous design, development and manufacturing capability. The consistency and reliability of supply of defense weapon systems and the transfer of technology is the hallmark of this relationship.
Over the years, Pakistan has benefited from Chinese assistance to an extent that it is manufacturing armored fighting vehicles, fighter aircrafts (JS-17), frigates and long-range missiles.
Apart from defense and economic assistance, China has forcefully defended Pakistan’s position at the UNSC and other major global forums.
It is indeed unfortunate that both India and Pakistan spend a substantial portion of their budgets on defense. In fact, to this end, Pakistan spends nearly 4 percent of its GDP. But with India’s aggressive designs and its refusal to engage in dialogue there is no choice left for Pakistan except to develop credible conventional and strategic deterrence.
By keeping the Line of Control highly active and refusing to engage politically, Prime Minister Modi expects to bleed Pakistan economically. Notwithstanding India’s hostility, Pakistan has to guard against ensuring that its expenditure on defense remains within limits.
– Talat Masood is a retired Lieutenant General from Pakistan Army and an eminent scholar on national security and political issues.
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