The Afghanistan peace deal: how will it play out?
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The US and Taliban have entered an important phase in their endeavors to seek a negotiated settlement to the Afghanistan conflict. A ‘reduction’ in violence became effective at midnight on Friday and will last until Feb. 29, i.e. for a week.
Following the ‘satisfactory’ conclusion of the one week respite in fighting, a peace deal will be signed between the two parties on that day in Doha, Qatar.
The deal will lay down a time-frame for the withdrawal of foreign forces from Afghanistan--estimated to take about 18 months. But within the next four months, the US will withdraw about 3,500 troops if the intra-Afghan dialogue delivers a substantive outcome. Within 10 days of the signing of the peace deal, an intra-Afghan dialogue is to get underway to seek reconciliation and establish a consensus on the governance system.
The deal will envisage the release of about 5,000 Taliban prisoners now in the custody of the Afghan government. About 1,000 Afghan government soldiers held by the Taliban will also be released.
The Taliban will also commit to not allow any insurgent groups, including Al Qaeda, to operate from within their ranks.
Bringing together the US and Taliban was a difficult undertaking indeed, and would not have been possible without Islamabad’s active involvement. The leverage that Pakistan had with the Taliban movement was most effectively utilized for promoting understanding and trust between the two parties.
During the signing of the peace deal, it is expected that both the US and the Taliban will recognize the part Pakistan has played in creating an environment for the peace parleys to move forward.
The many visits to Islamabad by top US negotiator, Zalmay Khalilzad, are a testimony to Pakistan’s commitment to the peace process that is now expected to unfold in the shape of a historic breakthrough deal.
Intra-Afghan dialogue, however, still faces huge challenges. How will the Afghan government be integrated into a new dispensation that is worked out on the basis of a compromise? How will the deal or the subsequent consensus in intra-Afghan negotiations be made compatible with the country’s constitution? What will be the status or position of those who are charged with crimes including crimes against humanity? How will the fate of the nearly 350,000 army and police be decided? Will there be any major retrenchment? And will there be a long pause in attacks from either side as talks among Afghan factions including the Taliban continue?
Bringing together the US and Taliban was a difficult undertaking indeed, and would not have been possible without Islamabad’s active involvement. The leverage that Pakistan had with the Taliban movement was most effectively utilized for promoting understanding and trust between the two parties.
Rustam Shah Mohmand
Some of these issues could derail the entire reconciliation process.
However, there are signs the talks will go ahead despite the bumpy road that lies ahead. One cause for optimism is the controversy over the authenticity of the results of the election held last September. The final results were announced a couple of days ago and Ashraf Ghani has been declared the winner taking 50.64 percent of the vote.
His close rival, Dr. Abdullah, has called the outcome ‘treason’ and has asserted that he will form his own government. He has refused to accept the verdict of the election commission. Other contenders have voiced similar views. This has taken the veneer of ‘genuine mandate’ off the whole process.
No longer can President Ghani claim to represent the will of the electorate; no longer can he lay claim to being a genuinely elected leader of the country. This has made the task of the US a lot easier in so far as pushing a peace deal is concerned. This has also made the Taliban position stronger in their parleys with other factions including the government because the Taliban now face a divided opposition. With some manipulations, they can move forward to a negotiated settlement in which they will have the dominant position.
The op-ed by the deputy leader of the Taliban, Sirajuddin Haqqani, published by the New York Times last week, throws light on the current mood in the leadership of the movement. The thinking is clearly of reconciliation, of quid pro quo, of seeking convergence on perceptions. And the theme of the article is fatigue syndrome. People desperately want peace no matter how it comes to them.
Taliban have offered to include all other factions or groups in the government, which they hope to be leading. In other words, it will be a multi-ethnic, broad-based government giving representation to those who have been opposed to the Taliban movement in the past-- or have been fighting against it.
A consensus will be sought on the status of the country’s constitution, parliament and the fate of its armed forces. These will be formidable challenges.
Afghans could also bring pressure to bear upon the Taliban and other factions to seek a quick end to the conflict. This could be an impetus for a prompt resolution. But if the talks break down, it will bring the awful prospect of renewed violence— this time with more vengeance and brutality.
One should not expect smooth sailing at the end of a long conflict in which groups and parties are split over issues of hegemony, power, ethnicity, ideology and lust for riches. There will inevitably be agonizing interludes. But with pressure from the US and the people of Afghanistan, there will be hope for a breakthrough-- and for peace.
*Rustam Shah Mohmand is a specialist of Afghanistan and Central Asian Affairs. He has served as Pakistan’s ambassador to Afghanistan and also held position of Chief Commissioner Refugees for a decade.
