Support grows for deeper OPEC+ oil output cuts

Azerbaijan’s energy minister said coronavirus concerns are excessive, adding to a growing group of officials who believe that markets are overreacting. (AFP)
Short Url
Updated 10 February 2020

Support grows for deeper OPEC+ oil output cuts

  • Azerbaijan is likely to support a provisional cut of 600,000 barrels per day, says country’s energy minister

BAKU: Azerbaijan is likely to support further oil output cuts by OPEC and its allies, the ex-Soviet country’s energy minister said, should the move be necessary to balance demand fears after a coronavirus outbreak in China.

A technical panel that advises the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies led by Russia, the group known as OPEC+, proposed this week a provisional cut of around 600,000 barrels per day (bpd).

“Azerbaijan is likely to support this,” Parviz Shahbazov told Reuters in an interview. Azerbaijan is not an OPEC member but is part of the OPEC+ group informally established in 2016.

Although Azerbaijan is not a big contributor to the overall cuts by OPEC+, its position may shed light on Russia’s thinking as non-OPEC members of the group usually take a unanimous decision. Moscow is yet to give its nod to the further cuts.

Producers in the OPEC+ group are scheduled to meet in Vienna on March 5-6, although the meeting could be brought forward depending on how the coronavirus outbreak affects oil prices going forward. Brent dropped below $55 a barrel on Friday.

However, Shahbazov said he believed that the impact of the coronavirus might be short-lived, adding to a small number of other officials and market players who believe that markets are overreacting.

“At this stage, the effect of coronavirus is temporary and I do not see global threats, but I do not rule out that there may be further (oil output) cuts,” he said. “We can meet earlier than March if necessary although there is no such need so far.”

The death toll from the coronavirus outbreak in China rose above 800 on Sunday, surpassing the number killed globally by Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome across 2002 and 2003.

Shahbazov said that oil output in Azerbaijan was around 770,000 bpd last month, in line with its OPEC+ quota.

The country has a balanced budget based on an oil price of $55 per barrel but can withstand a temporary dip to $40, Shahbazov said.

Baku, which plans to start gas exports to Europe, has also signed deals with Saudi Arabian energy company ACWA Power and United Arab Emirates’ Masdar to expand in renewable energy.

Shahbazov said the firms would invest around $400 million to build wind and solar power plants with a total capacity of 440 megawatts. Construction is due to start in September and last two years.

Related


Oil surges on hopes of new deal on output cuts

Updated 02 June 2020

Oil surges on hopes of new deal on output cuts

  • Brent price has doubled in five weeks
  • OPEC talks may be brought forward

DUBAI: Oil prices surged toward $40 a barrel on Monday as hopes rose for an early agreement to extend the big production cuts agreed by Saudi Arabia and Russia under the OPEC+ alliance.

Brent, the global benchmark, jumped by more 9 percent to nearly $39, continuing the surge that has doubled the price in five weeks — the best performance in its history. It recovered after record supply cuts agreed between the 23 countries of the OPEC+ partnership, and enforced cuts in US shale oil.

DME Oman crude, the regional benchmark in which a lot of Saudi Aramco exports are priced, rose above $40 a barrel for the first time since early March.

Market sentiment was buoyed by the possibility that the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries would agree with non-OPEC members to extend the cuts for a longer period than was agreed in April.

Oil analysts expect OPEC to fast track a “virtual” meeting to formally agree to maintaining cuts at the record 9.7 million barrels a day level. The meeting was scheduled for June 9, but bringing it forward would allow producers more time to set pricing levels.

Opinion

This section contains relevant reference points, placed in (Opinion field)

An official with one OPEC delegation told Arab News there was consensus among the 23 OPEC+ members for the new date, which could be as early as June 4. The meeting will also consider how long the current level of cuts would be maintained. Some OPEC members want it to run to the end of the year, other producers would prefer a two-month extension.

Omar Najia, global head of derivatives with trader BB Energy, told a forum run by Gulf Intelligence consultancy: “I’d be amazed if OPEC did not extend the higher level of cuts. As long as Saudi Arabia and Russia continue saying nice things to each other I’d expect the rally to continue.”

A Moscow source close to the oil industry said energy officials there had come to the conclusion that “the deal is working” and it was important to keep prices at an “acceptable” level.

Sentiment was also affected by a comparatively high level of compliance with the new cuts, running at about 75 percent among OPEC+ members, with only Iraq and Nigeria noticeable under-compliers.

Robin Mills, chief executive of Qamar Energy, said: “That’s where I’d expect it to be after two months in such a fluid situation. It will be even better in June.”