China virus forces OPEC to weigh up extension to oil output cuts

Venezuela’s Oil Minister Manuel Quevedo, Saudi Arabia’s Minister of Energy Prince Abdul Aziz bin Salman and Russia’s Energy Minister Alexander Novak. (Reuters)
Short Url
Updated 29 January 2020

China virus forces OPEC to weigh up extension to oil output cuts

  • Slide in crude prices to three-month low alarms officials amid concerns over coronavirus’ impact on economic growth

LONDON: OPEC wants to extend current oil output cuts until at least June, with the possibility of deeper reductions on the table if oil demand in China is significantly affected by the spread of a new coronavirus, OPEC sources said.

The quick slide in oil prices over the past few days has alarmed OPEC officials, the sources say, as the new virus found in China and several other countries raised concerns about a hit to economic growth and oil demand.

Oil futures were on course for a sixth day of losses with Brent crude staying below $60 per barrel. On Monday it hit a three-month low of $58.50, as the virus outbreak triggered a global selloff of riskier assets.

Saudi Arabia, OPEC’s de-facto leader, joined by key oil producers such as the United Arab Emirates, Algeria and Oman, sought to calm market jitters on Monday — urging caution against gloomy expectations on the impact of the virus on the global economy and oil demand.

But OPEC officials have also started weighing their options and intensified internal discussion on how best to respond to the price slump, the sources said.

“A further extension is a strong possibility and a deeper cut is a possibility,” said one OPEC source, adding that the impact of the China virus outbreak on oil demand would be clearer over the coming week.

“Extension is highly possible until June,” another source said, adding that an additional preferable option is to extend the oil producers’ pact until end of 2020 and that a deeper cut was “possible” if there was a need for it.

A source familiar with Russian thinking, said that although Moscow had been keen earlier to exit from price cuts, it would stay on board if oil prices continued to trade below $60 a barrel

OPEC+, which includes Russia, has been reducing oil supply to support prices, agreeing in December to hold back 1.7 million barrels per day (bpd) of output until the end of March.

Russia had insisted it wanted the current deal to last only until March, while Saudi Arabia has been keener for the deal to last longer, according to OPEC+ sources.

This year, OPEC expects its world market share to fall further as output booms in non-OPEC rivals including the US, Brazil, Canada, Australia, Norway and Guyana while global demand is rising.


G20 ministers agree to keep markets open, tackle pandemic supply disruptions

Updated 31 March 2020

G20 ministers agree to keep markets open, tackle pandemic supply disruptions

  • G20 leaders pledged last week to inject over $5 trillion into the global economy to limit job and income losses from the coronavirus outbreak
  • The coronavirus has infected nearly 738,500 people worldwide and killed some 35,000

RIYADH/WASHINGTON: Trade ministers from the Group of 20 major economies agreed on Monday to keep their markets open and ensure the continued flow of vital medical supplies, equipment and other essential goods as the world battles the deadly coronavirus pandemic.
G20 leaders pledged last week to inject over $5 trillion into the global economy to limit job and income losses from the coronavirus outbreak, while working to ease supply disruptions caused by border closures by national governments anxious to limit transmission of the virus.
In a joint statement issued after a videoconference, the trade ministers pledged to take “immediate necessary measures” to facilitate trade, incentivize additional production of equipment and drugs, and minimize supply chain disruptions.
They agreed that all emergency measures should be “targeted, proportionate, transparent, and temporary,” while sticking to World Trade Organization (WTO) rules and not creating “unnecessary barriers” to trade.
They also vowed to work to prevent profiteering and unjustified price increases, and keep supplies flowing on an affordable and equitable basis.
“As we fight the pandemic both individually and collectively and seek to mitigate its impacts on international trade and investment, we will continue to work together to deliver a free, fair, non-discriminatory, transparent, predictable and stable trade and investment environment, and to keep our markets open,” the ministers said.
They agreed to notify the WTO about any trade-related measures taken to keep global supply chains running and said they would convene again as necessary.
The ministers, however, stopped short of explicitly calling for an end to export bans that many countries, including G20 members France, Germany and India, have enacted on drugs and medical supplies. A key adviser to US President Donald Trump is working on new rules to expand “Buy America” mandates to the medical equipment and pharmaceutical sectors, something that dozens of business groups said could worsen shortages.
The joint statement included the phrase “consistent with national requirements” already used by G20 leaders, which experts say could provide a loophole for protectionist barriers.
Lack of protective medical gear is putting doctors and nurses at risk. Many countries rely on China, the source of the outbreak, for drug ingredients and are struggling to avoid shortages after lockdown measures prompted by the epidemic held up supplies and delayed shipments.
Supply chains are backing up as air freight capacity plunges and companies struggle to find truck drivers and shipping crews. Europe and the United States are short of tens of thousands of freight containers. Shippers struggle with crew shortages and quarantines at ports. Agriculture is also being disrupted.
The ministerial video conference was attended by representatives from the WTO, World Health Organization and Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development.
A senior World Bank official urged G20 members to agree to refrain from imposing new export restrictions on critical medical supplies, food or other key products, and to eliminate or reduce tariffs on imports of key products.
US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer told the ministers during the meeting that the pandemic had revealed vulnerabilities in the US economy caused by over-dependence on cheap medical supplies from other countries. He did not reference the “Buy America” rule specifically, but said Washington was encouraging diversification and wanted to promote more domestic manufacturing to produce more suppliers for the United States and others.
G20 finance ministers and central bankers will also meet virtually, on Tuesday, for the second time in just over a week to continue coordinating their response, the Saudi G20 secretariat said, as worries grow about the debt crisis looming over poorer countries.
Japanese Trade Minister Hiroshi Kajiyama told counterparts that both the public and private sectors should try to avoid shutting supply networks to enable an early resumption of economic activities.
The coronavirus has infected nearly 738,500 people worldwide and killed some 35,000, and has plunged the world into a global recession, according to International Monetary Fund chief Kristalina Georgieva.