Pakistan's opposition and its obstructed political dynamics
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While relations between the Pakistani government and opposition are usually filled with hostility and slander, a pleasant surprise came in the first week of January. The ruling Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) and the opposition Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PMLN) and Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) agreed to cooperate in legislating on the appointment and extension of service of military chiefs. They also decided to keep the military out of their contentious politics. This unanimity is a rare occurrence, unlikely to happen too often. The following paragraphs explain why.
The opposition in the parliament and outside it is a conglomerate of diverse political parties, generally led by the PMLN and the PPP. They have a significant presence in the two houses of the parliament and the provincial assemblies of Punjab and Sindh. They are also small regional political parties and religion-based Islamic parties such as Jamaat-i-Islami (JI) and Jamiat-e-Ulema-e-Islam-Fazlur Rahman (JUIF).
These political parties are dominated by their leaders who treat them as their political fiefdom, focusing on the deficiencies in the performance of the cabinet rather than offering a new political and economic program to replace the PTI government's policies. They share antipathy towards the ruling PTI government and want to knock it out of the office either through the parliament or street agitation. They demand fresh national elections to set up a new representative government. However, they have so far been unsuccessful in producing a shared strategy to launch a nationwide political movement due to mutual distrust and divergent political agendas.
The two major opposition parties face political challenges in pursuing their role efficiently. However, they have the capacity to pose a credible electoral challenge to the PTI in the next vote.
Dr. Hasan Askari Rizvi
JUIF chief Maulana Fazlur Rehman attempts to play an oversized role in politics, hoping that he can strive for a leading position in the opposition. These hopes come in view of relative inaction by the top leadership of the PMLN and PPP who are entangled in the accountability process, and some are out of Pakistan. Rehman sought their support for his long march from Karachi and a sit-ins Islamabad to oust PTI between late October and early November. The PMLN and PPP indeed promised to back him some of their senior leaders addressed a JUIF rally. However, they avoided active participation as that could turn Rehman into a key opposition leader.
The PMLN and the PPP often jointly criticize government policies and accuse PTI of bad governance and poor political management. They also bemoan the rising prices of food staples and other goods and utilities. However, an enduring partnership between them is not developing due to troubled mutual relations and ambitions to dominate one another.
They also face problems due to investigations into their top leaders by the National Accountability Bureau (NAB). Some members of their leaderships have experienced questioning, detention, trial, and conviction on corruption, nepotism, and misuse of state resources charges related to their time in power between 2008 and 2018. Both parties describe the accountability process as the victimization of political opponents by the PTI cabinet. It is also one of the main obstacles to devising a working relationship between the government and opposition.
As the role of PLMN leader and former premier Nawaz Sharif is fading, the party is likely to face transition problems. It may experience an internal crisis as to who – Nawaz's brother Shahbaz Sharif or daughter Maryam Sharif – should lead. The party also needs to get stronger outside its key voter base of Punjab. In the case of PPP, Bilawal Bhutto Zardari is striving hard to establish his leadership in the party. Will he continue to be overshadowed by his father, Asif Ali Zardari? PPP has to build electoral support also outside of Sindh where traditionally dominates. It needs to revive its electoral standing in Punjab which has more seats in the National Assembly than any other province.
The two major opposition parties face political challenges in pursuing their role efficiently. However, they have the capacity to pose a credible electoral challenge to the PTI in the next vote, as we will surely the new generation of their leading families more actively involved in the near future.
*Dr. Hasan Askari Rizvi is a Pakistan-based political analyst. Twitter: @har132har
