Netanyahu clings to power as third Israeli election looms
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All is not well in the Israeli body politic. On March 2, 2020, the Israeli electorate of 6.5 million will once again have the opportunity to break an impasse that has already endured two elections and months of failed coalition negotiations. The logjam has become a national embarrassment, exacerbated by having a prime minister — the longest-serving in Israeli history — indicted on charges of bribery, fraud and breach of trust.
Who would bet against a fourth election in 2020? In September’s vote, the two leading parties, Blue and White and Likud, got 33 and 32 seats respectively. The magic number in Israeli politics is 61, as this secures a majority in the Knesset. It all centers on how strong the competing blocs are — whether some combination of far-right parties can get a majority or whether it will be a right-of-center bloc that materializes. Neither Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu nor his opponent Benny Gantz, the leader of Blue and White, could agree on a national unity government. Avigdor Lieberman, the leader of Yisrael Beiteinu, was the man who could put one of them in power, yet he was a kingmaker who refused to choose a king.
At least this time voters will only have to suffer 82 days of election campaigning, having had 215 days in the two previous rounds in April and September. By March 2, one imagines that 300 days of electioneering should be more than enough to comprehend the programs of each party and each bloc — in theory at least. One danger is that electoral fatigue could lead to a dangerously low voter turnout in March.
Something clearly has to shift. That obstacle in most Israeli minds has to be Netanyahu. He refuses to depart into the sunset, not least because it comes with the possibility of court cases and a prison sentence. He holds the nation hostage until he procures an acceptable form of immunity deal. The Israeli attorney general has already compelled him to forgo three of his ministerial positions by Jan. 1, but he retains his prime ministerial role.
Yet, one has to wonder, how dire does this have to get for Likud to ditch its leader and why has it not happened already? Netanyahu is a proven election winner, of course. There is no more astute operator in Israeli politics, and he will deploy all his cunning and thick skin to brazen his way through the next three months. If Likud sticks with him, then the agenda for March 2 will be all about “Bibi,” much as the November elections in the US will be all about Donald Trump.
At least Likud has a chance to chart a different course and change the man at the helm. A Likud leadership ballot is expected to be held on Dec. 26, with Gideon Sa’ar likely to be Netanyahu’s main challenger.
Palestinians are bracing themselves for the next orchestra of dog whistles and anti-Arab comments
Chris Doyle
What will this mean for Palestinians? Does it even matter to them? The elections are not going to produce an Israeli coalition prepared to make a viable deal and agree to an independent Palestinian state. Both contenders for prime minister vie with each other about their determination to annex the settlements or Area C of the West Bank. Sa’ar was swift to condemn Netanyahu’s lack of action in the West Bank to fulfill his promises, not least over the failure to demolish the totemic Bedouin community at Khan Al-Ahmar east of Jerusalem. “I support the views that the prime minister expressed here during past election campaigns. It is possible to carry out these views better,” he said last week.
It is hardly much cheer to Palestinians that the Israeli government probably will not be able to push forward with the annexation of Palestinian lands during this electoral period. The discourse of racism and bigotry in Israel toward Palestinians is still the dominant theme.
There was also an opportunity lost, not least on Gaza. Israeli security supremos were hoping to take advantage of Hamas’ willingness to agree to a long-term cease-fire over Gaza as a chance to move away from regular confrontation. The fear is no political leader, including Netanyahu, would be prepared to appear weak by granting concessions on easing the Gaza blockade while in the midst of the political bun fight of his life.
For Palestinian citizens of Israel, the challenge will be to maintain unity and fight as one bloc to ensure as powerful a position as possible. In the meantime, they will brace themselves for the next orchestra of dog whistles and anti-Arab comments, which bodes ill for future Jewish-Arab relations.
But, just as Britain has suffered from government paralysis as a result of Brexit and the US administration is hampered by impeachment inquiries, Israel is suffering from this gridlock. Key appointments such as chief of police are not being made. There is no budget agreed for 2020. The country can little afford for this to continue beyond March. It is tempting to believe that the Israeli electorate, even Likud, will determine that the political retirement of Netanyahu cannot be delayed any longer. This election is now up for grabs and Gantz has a prime chance to profit from it. Yet Netanyahu is the great political survivor and, even on the ropes, he is going nowhere. He will fight to the last second.
• Chris Doyle is director of the London-based Council for Arab-British Understanding. Twitter: @Doylech