Pakistan and Putin’s overtures to Arabian Gulf
Russian President Putin’s visit to Saudi Arabia and the UAE are a seminal development for the region. There was an interlude when the Kingdom did not have diplomatic relations with Moscow, but those were cold war days when the erstwhile Soviet Union opposed religious beliefs, practiced socialism and espoused communism as a goal. The cataclysmic events of the early 90’s changed all that. In fact, Soviet policies had started changing under Gorbachev, and I was in Riyadh when the Soviet Embassy reopened there in 1990.
Fast forward to 2014, when Russia has decided to support Bashar Al Assad’s battered regime and stood by it steadfastly.
In 2011, the US had opted to leave Hosni Mubarak to his own devices, in the wake of the Arab Spring. From the Afghans who fought the Soviet invasion, to the Syrian Kurds lately, the US has shown proclivity for short term transactional relationships. However, eastern diplomatic culture favours longer term loyalties and friendships. Russia is now viewed as a more trustworthy and ascending power in the Middle East that is ready to risk the lives of its soldiers to help friends. President Trump, on the other hand, does not want to lose even a single soldier in an election year and therefore he follows a very cautious policy.
The US has shown proclivity for short term transactional relationships. However, eastern diplomatic culture favours longer term loyalties and friendships. Russia is now viewed as a more trustworthy and ascending power in the Middle East.
Javed Hafeez
So what lies behind Russia’s initiative and what common interests could provide a foundation for a healthy relationship? To begin with, Russia and Saudi Arabia are prominent oil producers. Managing oil prices and production levels need constant dialogue. Russia is also interested in marketing its missiles and anti- missile systems to the Middle East. It has vast experience in gas exploration and energy pipelines and its policy in the Middle East is more predictable and reliable than US policy. Putin has been at the helm of Russian affairs now for almost two decades, whereas US policies often change with a change of presidents and often times, even during a single presidency.
The world’s political scene is not black and white anymore. From unipolarity, it seems we are moving towards a multi-polar world. Zero-sum games have, at least partially, been replaced by win-win relations, even between rivals.
The US strategic doctrine defines China and Russia as rivals but many countries have good relations with all three. Israel and some Central Asian countries are examples. Developing cooperation with Russia, therefore, does not necessarily mean the cooling down of relations with the US. But it seems now, that the world’s centre of gravity is shifting towards Eurasia.
It was against the backdrop of these changing dynamics that Saudi Arabia’s King Salman bin Abdul Aziz paid the first ever Saudi head of state level visit to Russia in 2017. This diversification is healthy in international relations.
Pakistan too, views Putin’s visit to its important friends in the Arabian Gulf as a welcome development. Its own relations with Russia have vastly improved in recent years. President Putin supported Pakistan’s SCO membership. The two countries started a strategic dialogue in 2013 and joint military exercises in 2016.
Pakistan has purchased military hardware from Russia and the two countries have signed a memorandum of understanding for a huge energy project. Also, Pak-Russian views on the peace process in Afghanistan are quite similar.
President Putin signed 14 bilateral agreements in Riyadh and made deals worth $2 billion, as well as several deals worth $1.3 billion in Abu Dhabi, with the Russian market harboring serious potential for trade promotion.
Additionally, Russia enjoys considerable goodwill with Iran. With improved ties with two of the most important Arabian Gulf nations, Moscow may in the future be in a position to mediate between Riyadh and Tehran.
Islamabad is viewing rising regional turbulence with increasing anxiety, and though the country is already playing its role in promoting peace and security in the neighbourhood, any Russian help in the regard will greatly help. Pakistan alone is not in a position to contain the cracks, and an improvement in Russian ties with Arab Gulf nations will be a wholesome development for the entire region, and cause for some relief in Islamabad.
- Javed Hafeez is a former Pakistani diplomat with much experience of the Middle East. He writes weekly columns in Pakistani and Gulf newspapers and appears regularly on satellite TV channels as a defense and political analyst.
Twitter: @hafiz_javed
