Pakistan’s tough role in potential resumption of US-Taliban talks
Earlier this month, after a recent meeting in Pakistan between a Taliban delegation headed by Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar and US special envoy Zalmay Khalilzad, hopes were ignited about the resumption of peace talks between Washington and the insurgent group.
It was no coincidence that Taliban and US negotiators were in the Pakistani capital, Islamabad, to hold their first meeting after President Donald Trump’s abrupt decision last month to end negotiations. Pakistan had in fact invited the two sides as a facilitator, in a bid to break the ice and help revive talks.
But there is yet no word that any fresh understanding was reached to resume the negotiation process. Questions are being asked about whether Taliban negotiators had given any indication they would show flexibility on agreeing to a permanent cease-fire or holding direct talks with the Afghan government. Reportedly, these were the two core demands made by the US during the protracted negotiations and also after the breakdown of talks.
But there isn’t any real incentive for the Taliban leadership to change its stance, in view of the fact that the military situation in Afghanistan hasn’t changed in favor of any side and the record low turnout in the September 28 presidential election has provided the Taliban with another reason to question the representative status of the Afghan government and to refuse to negotiate with it.
Perhaps a proposal by Pakistan to all sides in the conflict to reduce violence and create better conditions for the resumption of talks could serve as the basis of a new effort to revive the peace process. In fact, Foreign Minister Shah Mahmood Qureshi floated the proposal in his meeting with the Taliban delegation in Islamabad. It was obvious the proposal was directed primarily at the Taliban group, which had been accused by Trump of carrying out fatal attacks despite being engaged in talks with the US, in an attempt to bolster its bargaining position in the negotiations.
Despite the fact that the collapse of negotiations predictably resulted in a surge in violence, now the situation could be headed toward a reduction in violence.
A proposal by Pakistan to all sides in the conflict to reduce violence and create better conditions for the resumption of talks could serve as the basis of a new effort to revive the peace process.
Rahimullah Yusufzai
Though precise figures of Taliban attacks, US airstrikes and joint raids on homes of suspected militants in the period following the breakdown of peace talks are not available, it seems incidents of violence caused by major assaults have now been reduced. It remains to be seen if the reduction in big attacks claimed by the Taliban is the result of a conscious effort to reduce the violence or due to a lack of preparedness for the onset of winter when fighting generally subsides due to extreme cold and snowfall in many parts of the country.
The Islamabad meeting between the Taliban delegation and Khalilzad may have improved the chances of a resumption of talks and prompted the two sides to consider undertaking confidence building measures, including a reduction in violence and exchange of prisoners.
Already, 11 Taliban prisoners have been released from the Bagram prison in Afghanistan in exchange for three Indian engineers kidnapped by the Taliban. There are also reports that a deal is being negotiated to secure the release of a US national and an Australian, both professors at the American University in Kabul, in exchange for certain Taliban prisoners, including the younger brother of the Haqqani network’s chief Sirajuddin Haqqani. His brother, Anas, has been sentenced to death and is being held by the Afghan government.
Regardless of feel-good moves made to resume Taliban-US negotiations, Pakistan’s efforts to revive the peace process are being looked at with suspicion in Kabul. The Afghan government raised objections to the protocol given to the Taliban delegation invited by Pakistan for meetings with Khalilzad and Pakistani officials, led by its foreign minister.
For Pakistan, it is a dilemma, because it had agreed to facilitate the meeting between the Taliban and Khalilzad as a result of an understanding reached with the US. It’s a situation of damned if you do and damned if you don’t. Islamabad is blamed for the rise of violence in Afghanistan if it doesn’t do anything to promote the peace process, but taking steps to help end the conflict arouses suspicion and triggers criticism from Kabul.
Many Afghans cite Pakistan’s close links with the Taliban as part of its strategy to install a government of its choice in Afghanistan. In these circumstances, one important confidence building measure to strengthen and sustain the Afghan peace process would be to impress upon countries such as the US and China, which have friendly relations with both governments in Kabul and Islamabad, to make a determined effort to improve relations between the two countries.
*Rahimullah Yusufzai is a senior political and security analyst in Pakistan. He was the first to interview Taliban founder Mullah Mohammad Omar and twice interviewed Osama Bin Laden in 1998. Twitter: @rahimyusufzai1
