Days before Afghan elections, repercussions of peace deal breakdown continue
The breakdown of peace talks between the Taliban and United States in Qatar has led to an escalation in violence at a time when the presidential election in Afghanistan is just around the corner.
In a surprising, but not entirely unexpected, move, President Donald Trump called off negotiations with the Taliban on Sept. 7, after the two sides had claimed that a deal had, in principle, been finalized.
Both the Taliban and the US have been using tough language against each other after the cancellation of the talks. As the US started using its enormous airpower in Afghanistan to strike at Taliban positions, Trump boasted that the Taliban had never been hit harder.
Taliban leaders, on the other hand, warned that cancellation of talks would lead to more losses for the US and harm its credibility.
But resumption of peace talks now appears unlikely in the near future. If one is to believe Trump, the talks are well and truly dead. While pledging to continue its ‘jihad’ until the expulsion of all foreign forces from Afghanistan, the Taliban group declared it was ready for both peace and war.
However, neither the Taliban nor the US have made any categorical statements saying there would be no peace talks in the future and Trump has made it clear he still wants to pull out the 14,000 American soldiers at the right time from Afghanistan.
As the withdrawal of foreign forces from Afghanistan is the primary Taliban demand, Trump could still tempt the group by offering to withdraw US troops earlier in return for certain concessions, including a Taliban agreement to a permanent ceasefire and willingness to negotiate directly with the Afghan agreement.
The Taliban left open the possibility of resuming peace talks, even while pledging to fight until the expulsion of all US-led foreign forces.
The group’s keenness for the resumption of negotiations is also due to the Taliban’s belief that it had managed to secure good terms in the still-secret deal. The US, on the other hand, couldn’t persuade the Taliban to agree to a permanent ceasefire nor to holding direct talks with the Afghan government.
If the presidential election produces a winner with a fresh mandate and the outcome isn’t challenged the way Dr. Abdullah challenged Ashraf Ghani’s victory in the controversial 2014 polls, the newly elected president would be in a better position to negotiate with the Taliban.
Rahimullah Yusufzai
There couldn’t have been a worse time for the end of peace talks as Afghanistan’s fourth presidential election in the post-Taliban period is scheduled to be held on Sept. 28. A peace deal between the Taliban and the US could have reduced the chances of violence in parts of Afghanistan where foreign forces are based — areas where the group had reportedly committed to a ceasefire.
Though the Taliban refused to observe a ceasefire with the Afghan government until progress in the proposed intra-Afghan dialogue was made, the beginning of this process involving Afghans could have brought the Taliban under pressure to halt the killing of civilians. Many Afghans have been questioning the Taliban for agreeing to talk to the Americans, but refusing to negotiate with fellow Afghans.
If the presidential election produces a winner with a fresh mandate and the outcome isn’t challenged the way Dr. Abdullah challenged Ashraf Ghani’s victory in the controversial 2014 polls, the newly elected president would be in a better position to negotiate with the Taliban.
Despite the group’s repeated refusal to talk to the Afghan government by dismissing it as a puppet regime of the US, the Taliban would have come under pressure to accept the electorate’s verdict and negotiate with the elected president for deciding Afghanistan’s future.
After 18 years of war, neither US-led foreign and Afghan forces, nor the Taliban are in a position to gain a decisive victory. The US, in particular President Trump, is showing signs of impatience as the Afghan war has turned out to be costly and the longest in American history.
For the Taliban, the prospects of a continuous war cannot be a sound proposition. It is safe to assume that by agreeing to hold peace talks last year, the Taliban and the US concluded that a military solution to the conflict just wasn’t possible.
Both sides must also have understood the need for give-and-take in negotiations. There is no other way to end the war, except by talking to each other.
It is likely that negotiations will be resumed at some stage in the future, possibly in 2020 when Trump seeks re-election and presents the return of US troops from Afghanistan under a peace deal with the Taliban as one of his glowing achievements.
– Rahimullah Yusufzai is a senior political and security analyst in Pakistan. He was the first to interview Taliban founder Mullah Mohammad Omar and twice interviewed Osama Bin Laden in 1998.
Twitter: @rahimyusufzai1
