Conundrum of Peace in Afghanistan
The ninth round of US-Taliban talks is underway in Doha. A Taliban leader, Abdul Salam Zaeef, a former Ambassador to Pakistan, has reportedly claimed that the US and Taliban are now very close to striking a deal, following which intra-Afghan negotiations will begin.
According to Zaeef, the US has agreed to withdraw its forces from Afghanistan within 15 to 24 months. And the Taliban have given commitment that the territory of Afghanistan would not be allowed for terrorism abroad. Significantly, he has also divulged that China, Russia and Pakistan would serve as guarantors from the Taliban side.
Given the long and brutal conflict in Afghanistan this all seems like a reverie. So much blood has been shed in Afghanistan as a result of “Great Games” that one cannot help but to take even these positive developments with not a pinch but a handful of salt.
To many Afghanistan analysts this is too good to believe. For others, the fatigue has already set in both inside and outside Afghanistan. The Kabul government cannot realistically expect the world to underwrite over 300,000 Afghan security forces indefinitely. As for the Taliban, according to these experts, Afghanistan has transformed substantially during the last 15 years. Moreover, the world has also changed in many respects. In short, they have no option but to sit across the table and iron out their differences, creating a win-win situation.
There is no doubt that President Trump is eager to deliver on one of its election promises. What he needs is to have the process of withdrawal of around 14,000 US troops from Afghanistan in place and a pause to the internecine conflict and violence in Afghanistan at least till November 2020. What happens thereafter is still open to many possibilities.
There are three interlinked questions which can preserve or unravel the agreement post- 2020 US elections.
All said and done, much would depend on what the Taliban do or do not do. If they eventually acquiesce to be part of the democratic process, we may see the conflict-riven Afghanistan finally on the road to peace and prosperity — becoming a true “Heart of Asia.”
Abdul Basit
First, whether or not US withdraws its combat troops entirely and also leaves its military bases, including Bagram Airbase to a coalition government in Kabul. The Taliban have reacted strongly to the suggestion by President Trump that the US may continue to have some presence in Afghanistan lest the Taliban take over like they did in 1996. This, according to Mr. Zaeef, would be a serious violation of the agreement and will not be accepted.
Second, how the intra-Afghan talks proceed and whether the warring sides are able to reach a modus vivendi before November 2020. While there are reports that the Taliban may agree to accept President Ashraf Ghani as head of the interim setup, it is not yet clear if the latter has given up on holding the next presidential elections scheduled for 28 September this year. Should he go ahead with the election in the absence of an agreement with the Taliban, the entire peace-building process can descend into chaos and collapse before its completion.
Interestingly, the Taliban have still not agreed to cease-fire. Nor have they conceded on the Afghanistan constitution which they regard as un-Islamic and therefore must be amended. President Ashraf Ghani et al are adamant that they would never compromise on the basic principles of the constitution and the gains made so far especially in the realms of democracy and women empowerment.
Third, how would India and Iran take the deal? Here more problematic is the former. Iran, already under pressure because of its nuclear program from the US, may not consider it wise to estrange China and Russia and be unhelpful in Afghanistan. Moreover, Iran has also been hobnobbing with the Taliban. Should peace finally come to Afghanistan and the US troops withdraw, Tehran would have no good reason to demur.
As for India, its Afghanistan policy has mostly been driven by its hostile relations with Pakistan. After the ouster of the Taliban in 2001, India has expanded its political space in Afghanistan to Pakistan’s disadvantage. Its aversion to CPEC is also well-known.
India is also on record asking the US not to withdraw in haste. It also wants the presidential elections be held next month as scheduled.
This is especially true when the situation in Kashmir and along the Line of Control is increasingly getting tense following the unilateral abrogation of the special status of Jammu and Kashmir.
All said and done, much would depend on what the Taliban do or do not do. If they eventually acquiesce to be part of the democratic process, we may see the conflict-riven Afghanistan finally on the road to peace and prosperity — becoming a true “Heart of Asia”. Otherwise, despite outside guarantors, peace in Afghanistan may continue to be a will- o’- the- wisp for some more time to come.
Who knows, peace in Afghanistan may not come through negotiations but after another long gory civil war. This is indeed a grim thought fraught with ominous implications not only for Afghanistan but also for Pakistan. The US under Trump may not be totally averse to the Taliban winning Kabul provided the two can reach some mutual understanding.
Afghanistan is a conundrum only Afghans can solve.
The writer is President of the Pakistan Institute for Conflict and Security Studies. He was previously Pakistan's ambassador to Germany and Pakistan's High Commissioner to India.
