IMF says trade war hurting Asia and may cut global growth

Changyong Rhee is voicing a note of caution over trade friction between the US and China. (AFP)
Updated 18 December 2018

IMF says trade war hurting Asia and may cut global growth

  • Global body says said Japan and South Korea could be among countries in the region hit hardest by the trade war between US and China.
  • Citing the potential fallout from the Sino-US trade war, the IMF cut its global growth forecast in October to 3.7 percent for both 2018 and 2019

TOKYO: Trade frictions between China and the United States are already affecting business confidence and investment in Asia, a senior International Monetary Fund official said, warning that the fund could further cut its global growth forecasts in January.
Changyong Rhee, director of the IMF’s Asia and Pacific Department, said Japan and South Korea could be among countries in the region hit hardest by the trade war given their reliance on exports to China.
“Investment is much weaker than expected. My interpretation is that the confidence channel is already affecting the global economy, particularly Asian economies,” Rhee told Reuters.
“We see global growth a little bit slower than we forecast in October,” he said on Monday.
Citing the potential fallout from the Sino-US trade war, the IMF cut its global growth forecast in October to 3.7 percent for both 2018 and 2019, down from 3.9 percent projected in July.
It expects Asia’s economic growth to slow to 5.4 percent next year from 5.6 percent projected this year.
Rhee said there was a chance the IMF could cut further its growth forecasts when it reviews them in January, given signs of slowdown not just in Asia but in Europe and the United States.
“Uncertainty is so large ... uncertainty means you have upside potential as well as downside risk. At this moment, we believe the downside risk is a little bit higher,” he said.
On China, Rhee said that it was not resorting to big-scale stimulus despite growing external headwinds, given the need to deal with long-term challenges such as curbing excess debt.
“They aren’t accelerating (stimulus) yet but taking the foot from the brake for the time being. But that doesn’t exclude the possibility that if the trade tension escalates, if growth goes down, they are ready to use stimulus,” he said.
“What we’re concerned and what we’re advising them is that the medium-term goals such as deleveraging are still important for financial stability,” Rhee added.
“So when they actually try to use stimulus, we hope they can use more fiscal policy rather than credit expansion.”


IMF chief warns pandemic leaving some countries behind

Updated 24 February 2021

IMF chief warns pandemic leaving some countries behind

WASHINGTON: The crisis caused by the pandemic is leaving many economies lagging behind, increasing the plight of the poor, a problem made worse by “uneven” access to vaccines, IMF chief Kristalina Georgieva said Wednesday.
In a message to the Group of 20 meeting on Friday Georgieva urged governments to increase vaccine distribution, ensuring Covid-19 is brought under control.
“The economic arguments for coordinated action are overwhelming,” she said in a blog post.
“Faster progress in ending the health crisis could raise global income cumulatively by $9 trillion over 2020-25. That would benefit all countries.”
She said that should include financing for vaccinations, reallocation of excess supply to countries with a shortage, and scaling up of production.
The global pandemic death toll is approaching 2.5 million, according to Johns Hopkins University, and the shutdowns forced to control infections have devastated economies.
And while vaccine rollouts are raising hopes for a recovery this year, the IMF forecasts job losses in the G20 alone to total more than 25 million this year.
By the end of 2022, emerging market and developing nations — excluding China — will see per capital incomes 22 percent below pre-crisis levels, compared to just 13 percent lower for advanced economies, which will throw millions more into extreme poverty, Georgieva warned.
“That is why we need much stronger international collaboration to accelerate the vaccine rollout in poorer countries,” she said.
G20 finance ministers and central bank chiefs led by Rome will meet by videoconference to discuss the state of the recovery and how best to attack the problem.
The Washington-based crisis lender estimated more than half of the world’s 110 emerging and developing countries will see their incomes fall further behind advanced economies through the end of next year.
And the virus-driven economic crisis also will widen income gaps within developing nations, especially as millions of children are still facing disruptions to education.
“Allowing them to become a lost generation would be an unforgiveable mistake. It would also deepen the long-term economic scars of the crisis,” she warned.


Moody’s revises up US and emerging markets forecasts, cuts Europe

Updated 24 February 2021

Moody’s revises up US and emerging markets forecasts, cuts Europe

  • Emerging market growth moved up to 7 percent from 6.1 percent, led by upward revisions to China, India and Mexico

LONDON:Credit ratings firm Moody’s revised upwards on Wednesday its economic forecasts for the year for the United States and emerging markets, but cut Europe’s following the region’s tough COVID-19 lockdowns.
Moody’s pushed up its US growth forecast to 4.7 percent, from the 4.2 percent it had expected in November.
Emerging market growth moved up to 7 percent from 6.1 percent, led by upward revisions to China, India and Mexico, while the euro zone and Britain saw their respective projections cut to 3.7 percent and 4.7 percent, from 4.7 percent and 5.2 percent previously.
“The effects on individual businesses, sectors and regions continue to be uneven, and the COVID-19 crisis will endure as a challenge to the world’s economies well beyond our two-year forecast horizon,” Moody’s said in a report on its new forecasts.

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Updated 24 February 2021

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Food and drinks group Agthia eyes acquisitions to become big regional player

Updated 24 February 2021

Food and drinks group Agthia eyes acquisitions to become big regional player

  • Agthia’s products include bottled water, dairy products and baked goods

DUBAI: Abu Dhabi-listed food and drinks group Agthia Group is looking into making more acquisitions to turn the company into one of the region’s top players in the food and beverage industry, its chief executive said on Tuesday.
After doing a number of deals already Agthia has a “pipeline of ideas” for additional targets to strengthen its position at home and abroad.
“Certainly we want to be a big regional player in the F&B business and more in the consumer space, so we want to move into that branded space where we can start building master brands across the region,” CEO Alan Smith said.
Agthia’s products include bottled water, dairy products and baked goods.
Smith did not rule out entering new markets, though he said a number of factors would come into play, including whether the company could enter at a large enough scale.
He said Agthia has had conversations with Israeli parties on potential cooperation, but no agreements have been finalized.
Smith also said Agthia had some sub-scale assets that the company was currently reviewing.
Abu Dhabi state-owned holding company ADQ, the corporate structure where Agthia sits, in November signed an agreement to acquire an indirect 45% stake in Louis Dreyfus Co., the first outside investment in the family-owned commodity merchant’s 169-year-old history.
“To be honest the Dreyfus transaction is fairly recent and I think we have had some initial conversations just in terms of the commodities space. But at the moment there’s no plans to have a conversation with them about (consumer packaged goods) products.”
Smith said Agithia, which reported a fall in net profit for 2020, had a strong balance sheet and was comfortable with its debt levels. It has no current plans to tap international debt markets, but may need to in the future, he said.


Britain’s Heathrow sinks to $2.8bn loss during pandemic

Updated 24 February 2021

Britain’s Heathrow sinks to $2.8bn loss during pandemic

  • Heathrow called on the government to agree a common international travel standard to allow passengers to start flying again in the summer

LONDON: Britain’s Heathrow Airport plunged to a 2 billion pound ($2.8 billion) annual loss after passenger numbers collapsed to levels last seen in the 1970s during the pandemic.
Heathrow called on the government to agree a common international travel standard to allow passengers to start flying again in the summer and to provide business tax breaks for airports to help them ride out the crisis.
The airport, west of London, is hopeful that travel markets will reopen from mid-May after a government announcement on easing lockdown on Monday.
Still Britain’s biggest airport, Heathrow last year lost its title as the busiest in Europe to Paris as its flight schedules contracted more than its rival’s.
The airport said on Wednesday that during 2020 passenger numbers shrunk 73% to 22 million people, with half of those people having traveled during January and February before COVID-19 shut down global travel.
The airport sunk to a 2 billion loss before tax on revenues which were down 62% to 1.18 billion pounds, but Heathrow said it had 3.9 billion pounds of liquidity and that could keep it going until 2023.
The airport is owned by Spain’s Ferrovial, the Qatar Investment Authority and China Investment Corp, among others.