What will Pakistan’s foreign policy look like under Imran Khan?
On July 25, Pakistanis voted in the country’s 11th general election. As results continue to trickle in, the Imran Khan-led Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaaf (PTI) appears to be emerging as the largest electoral block within the new Parliament and may well be on its way to forming the next government, with the help of independent candidates and other smaller parties.
Pakistanis across the country have given PTI a decisive mandate and from the results it looks like Pakistan is heading toward a strong coalition government led by PTI. For the first time in its political history, PTI is in the driving seat of the country and will be responsible for policymaking over the next five years. The most interesting questions remain what to expect in the domain of foreign policy and what is in store for Pakistan’s relations with its close friends in the Middle East.
The PTI and Khan throughout their electoral campaign did not set out a precise or comprehensive foreign policy. The election environment was dominated mainly by domestic issues related to governance and public policymaking. With PTI now on the road to power, the first glimpses of its foreign policy came in Khan’s post-election speech. The main emphasis seemed to be on presenting a positive view of the new government, one that is ready to work with all international and regional players.
Khan has some history with the United States due to his anti-drone-attack activism. This offer to the US to actively work together for peace in Afghanistan and in the region is a step in the right direction. He also highlighted the importance of close ties with China and Saudi Arabia, and reiterated Pakistan’s support for the Saudi Kingdom. He expressed his desire to play a peacemaking role in the Middle East and to play a part in the resolution of the conflicts the region has been mired in.
Foreign policy is dependent on the people in charge of it. Who is the likely pick from within PTI? Like every other political entity in Pakistan, the party has a very diverse set of members hailing from different ideological, social and political backgrounds. Which party faction prevails will ultimately decide the structure of coming policy and the person on the foreign affairs desk. Three former federal and two former state ministers for foreign affairs are members of PTI.
Probably the best choice will be Shah Mehmood Qureshi, who has remained foreign minister under the government of the Pakistan Peoples Party. During his time in office, Qureshi performed relatively better on the diplomatic front. He managed to engage all international and regional actors in a positive manner. If he is chosen for the job of country’s chief diplomat it can be expected that Pakistan’s diplomatic corps will be given a new lease of life and the foreign policy inertia that has been characteristic of the previous government will finally end.
Qureshi is the right man for the job since he proactively advances Pakistan’s agenda globally and forges strong links with brotherly nations in the Middle East while also staunchly following the traditional contours of Pakistani foreign policy and the country’s ideological roots.
The nature of the civil-military relationship under the PTI government will very much determine the direction of foreign policy and how Pakistan will approach the Middle East.
Umer Karim
Qureshi might be the best available option for PTI but due to his interest in the office of Chief Minister of Punjab, we must look at other possible names within the party. Another choice might be former member of parliament Shireen Mazari. She has been teaching foreign policy and politics in various institutions internationally and within Pakistan and has been running her own think tank in Islamabad. She remains well versed in foreign affairs, but her views on the Middle East can be best termed as rather politically controversial. PTI will serve itself best by prioritizing experience over expertise.
In terms of foreign policymaking in Pakistan, the elected government has never been the only player and the process is heavily influenced by the country’s military establishment.
It is interesting to note that the Pakistani army enjoys cordial security and strategic ties with the Arabian Gulf states, most notably Saudi Arabia, while it has also been developing a defense partnership with Turkey. The military has a certain perspective when it comes to Pakistan’s relationship with India and the situation in Afghanistan. The PTI government has to keep all these sensitivities in view while orienting its foreign policy outlook. The nature of the civil-military relationship under the PTI government will very much determine the direction of foreign policy and how Pakistan will approach the Middle East under Imran Khan.
He has no particular affiliation or interaction with any Middle Eastern politics. This suggests that although Pakistan will adhere to its traditional close ties with its Middle Eastern friends, the new interaction between Middle Eastern actors and Khan will significantly impact mutual ties.
• Umar Karim is a doctoral researcher at the University of Birmingham. His research focuses on the evolution of Saudi Arabia’s strategic outlook, the Saudi-Iran tussle, the conflict in Syria, the geopolitics of Turkey, and the relationship between Iran and Pakistan. Twitter: @UmarKarim89
